“The nuclear forensics also confirm it was a thermonuclear explosion — a hydrogen bomb, not an atomic bomb. There were minute traces of lithium deuterate, a substance that creates tritium when under the exposure of high-energy neutrons.” That got Geisler’s attention. “Neither Pakistan nor India has ever built, to our knowledge, a successful hydrogen bomb. I doubt the Indians would test the first one on Kashmiri territory.
“And the biggest bomb the Indians have ever claimed to have detonated was fifty kilotons — seismic data from that test suggests the yield was far less. Imagery analysis and ground-based mapping of the Kashmir explosion matches the seismic data we already have, this explosion was at least five times larger than anything we’ve ever seen from either country — a hundred and fifty kilotons.”
Patterson watched Geisler as he processed the information. He stated flatly, “This couldn’t have been an Indian bomb, or a Pakistani one for that matter. That at least explains why nobody could figure out why the Indians dropped the thing. They didn’t.” After a moment’s pause, he added, “So it’s likely from Russia or China. But Russia has nothing to gain by doing so — they don’t have a dog in this fight. And while China is supporting both Pakistan and the LeT terrorists, there’s nothing to be gained, and much to lose by giving the terrorists nuclear weapons.”
Patterson looked over at the president and Secretary Lloyd. Myles was mouthing the words, “Wait for it…”
“So the real problem isn’t an irrational Indian escalation, it’s a loose Russian or Chinese nuclear weapon. Wait a second! Didn’t you say, Joanna, that we use the same type of reactors to produce plutonium? I mean, God forbid, could it have been one of our own weapons?”
Patterson raised a finger; she already had the answer to his question. “We have some 150-kiloton warheads, and they’re all cruise missile payloads currently in the reserve stockpile. I had STRATCOM conduct an inventory; all W80 and W84 warheads are accounted for. The rest were disassembled years ago under joint U.S. and Russian observation. It’s impossible that the weapon came from us.”
“Which gets us right back to Russia and China, with the former a more likely source of the weapon as the intelligence community doesn’t believe China has a weapon of this yield,” concluded Geisler. “But regardless, the bottom line is still the same. At least one, possibly more, nuclear weapons have slipped out of someone’s control.”
“And into the hands of a powerful terrorist organization, at least until it exploded,” Myles completed. He nodded toward the secretary of state. “Andy and I were hoping you would come up with a different conclusion than we did.”
“I think I liked the ‘irrational India’ scenario better,” Geisler replied, still absorbing the implications. Patterson thought he looked a little walleyed.
Myles asked, “This particular weapon is no longer a problem, but the obvious question is, do they have any more?”
“As national security advisor, I agree that is the most urgent question, but I can think of plenty more: How did LeT get the weapon in the first place? Where did they plan to use it?”
“We’ll make a list,” Lloyd interjected. “Joanna, who else can figure this out, that it’s not an Indian nuke? The Russians? The Chinese? I’m guessing the Indians can’t, or they’d have said something by now as proof of their innocence.”
Patterson nodded agreement. “The Indians have the science, but not the assets to collect the samples.” She paused, considering. “The Russians can do it, but their aircraft can’t get to the area and I haven’t seen anything that said they collected ground samples. The Chinese can get all the samples they want, and they have science. But they have no reason to tell anyone.”
“Why should they?” Lloyd replied. “They have to be loving India taking the blame for this.”
“Which is why we are going to declassify and publish these findings as soon as possible — today, if we can,” Myles declared. “Let’s get rid of the anti-India hysteria. It’s a distraction we can do without.”
Geisler shook his head, disagreeing. “With respect, sir, releasing those findings will look like we’re defending India. That will hurt our neutral standing at the peace talks.”
Lloyd shook his head. “Not really, Malcolm. India doesn’t trust us because we’ve worked with Pakistan to fight terrorism, and we interfered with the Littoral Alliance war. Pakistan doesn’t trust us because we’ve sold weapons to India and we keep hounding them about hunting down their radical kinsmen. Besides, it’s the truth, and we could all use a little of that around here.”
“And it will silence a lot of those fire-eaters in the House and Senate,” Myles added. “Too much heat and not much light to show for all of it.”
“It’s early,” she replied. “I can have an unclass version ready for the five-o’clock daily briefing.”
There was a knock on the door and Ms. McDowell, the president’s secretary, opened the door as Greg Alexander, the Director of National Intelligence, hurried in. “I’m sorry, sir, I was across town when I received Joanna’s message and your summons. What have I missed?”
The release of the information on the Kashmir bomb did not calm the media storm; it only transformed it. It was one thing to blame India for a violent, irrational act, but now the shock and fear arising from the detonation had no clear target. The reality of rogue nuclear weapons had raised speculation about the explosion to hysterical levels.
As national security advisor, Joanna Patterson was well briefed on the current terrorist threat. One of the greatest concerns the U.S. national security community had was the possibility of a nuclear weapon falling into the hands of a terrorist group. Now it had happened, and only good fortune had prevented it from being used against an innocent target.
Yet innocents had still suffered, and the Lashkar-e-Taiba still existed. Their camp in Kashmir, although important, was only one of many large and small establishments scattered throughout the region. And there were other terrorist groups, as well. LeT was just the largest and best organized. It didn’t comfort Patterson that LeT’s intended victim was likely some large Indian city, and not one in the United States. A mushroom cloud over a Mumbai or a Delhi, with the two warring countries already so close to the nuclear threshold, would almost certainly bring on the catastrophe they all feared — a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. And their apocalypse would be the world’s disaster.
It wasn’t like the U.S. hadn’t been aware of the problem. Many terrorist groups had declared their desire and intent to buy — or, if they had to, build — an atomic bomb. Good luck with that, Patterson thought. As a scientist, she understood just what was needed to construct even a crude atomic weapon. Buying a nuke was a much more likely and therefore dangerous option.
So while a good part of the U.S. counterterror effort went toward watching the actors, another focused on looking for people who might have provided, or could provide, nuclear weapons.
Her mind flashed to an important time in her life. She’d already been involved in nuclear science, then politics, campaigning for the environment at the national level, when she’d organized an expedition to the Barents and Kara Seas, close to the Russian coast.