“Thanks, Evangeline. As my husband is fond of saying, stand by for heavy rolls.”
“Are you going to ruin my president’s schedule — again, Doctor?” remarked McDowell with a smirk.
“Very likely, ma’am… Sorry.”
A Secret Service agent opened the door and Patterson walked in to find the president, Alvarez, and Secretary of State Andrew Lloyd watching the TV. Alvarez waved her over, pointed to the flat screen, and whispered, “The Indian ambassador to the UN is concluding his speech.”
“Oh, lovely. I bet that’s going over well,” Joanna said with a wince. Alvarez’s pursed lips and the sharp shaking of his head confirmed her cynical prediction.
“…our war with Pakistan is a righteous one as they attacked us again, without provocation. The Pakistani government’s denial that they had nothing to do with the terrorists that struck our naval bases last year is flimsy at best. Their policy of harboring terrorists, arming them, and protecting them from outside retribution clearly shows the Pakistani regime’s true intent. And while India chose to respond militarily this time, as is our right, we have scrupulously followed the rules of war as laid out in international conventions.
“Mr. President, members of the General Assembly, let me be absolutely clear on this. India has not resorted to the use of nuclear weapons, nor do we need to. We have consistently upheld our part of the bargain during this cease-fire; the same cannot be said of Pakistan. The fact that the explosion was at a well-known Lashkar-e-Taiba stronghold can only suggest that the Pakistani government has lost its feeble grasp of reality and has begun to arm its homegrown terrorists with nuclear weapons…”
“And it goes downhill from here,” sighed Myles as he turned off the TV.
“Wow! I fully expected India to deny using a nuclear weapon,” Lloyd sneered. “But to accuse Pakistan of giving nukes to terrorists, that takes a lot of moxie!”
“The ambassador certainly played the part well,” commented Alvarez. “He almost had me believing India didn’t set off the nuke.”
“Probably because they didn’t,” interrupted Joanna. The heads of all three men snapped in her direction, a shocked expression on their faces.
“Dr. Patterson, you’re not suggesting…” Lloyd spoke hesitantly.
“I’m not suggesting anything, Mr. Secretary. What I’m saying is the data we have so far doesn’t support the theory that it was an Indian nuclear device.”
Myles sighed deeply again, and with a weary voice said, “Okay, Joanna, just cut to the bottom line.”
Patterson placed the folder on the president’s desk. “Mr. President, this is the executive summary of the analysis of the airborne samples collected by the WC-135 Constant Phoenix aircraft. The fallout cloud contained traces of both uranium 235 and 238, as well as multiple isotopes of plutonium. However, the ratio of the plutonium isotopes is not consistent with the manufacturing process used by India. Nor is the use of uranium consistent with Indian nuclear weapon design; they have historically used only plutonium.”
“Correct me if I’m wrong, Joanna, but plutonium is made in a nuclear reactor and then refined, so isn’t all weapons-grade plutonium the same?” Myles asked as he began skimming the report.
“You’re correct, sir, plutonium is produced in nuclear reactors. But different reactor types produce different ratios of the various isotopes. Even weapons-grade plutonium still has some of the undesired isotopes in the material,” Joanna replied. “The isotope ratios in the airborne samples we collected are not consistent with a heavy-water reactor that India uses to produce their plutonium. The sample, however, is consistent with a graphite-moderated, light-water reactor.”
“And who uses that type of reactor to make plutonium?”
“We do, Mr. President… as well as Russia and China.” Joanna watched as Myles dropped the file, his face pale.
“Oh my God,” Lloyd whispered.
“How… how accurate are those results, Joanna?” groaned Alvarez.
“Postdetonation forensic analysis is not nearly as accurate as having the nuclear material itself, Milt. I can’t say where the plutonium came from, but we can be reasonably confident about the reactor type that produced the material.”
“Is there any way to verify the analysis, Joanna?” asked the president.
“Yes, sir. The ground samples collected from areas near the blast site are already in country and are en route to Homeland Security’s National Technical Nuclear Forensics Center. We should have the lab results in a couple of days. If they are consistent with the airborne samples, then there will be little room for doubt.”
“The question then, lady and gentlemen, is do we say anything right now?” solicited Myles.
“We can’t possibly release this preliminary data without verification!” blasted Alvarez. “If the analysis of the ground samples contradicts these results, we’ll look like fools.”
“I’m very sympathetic to your views, Milt, but the world in general, and Muslim nations in particular, already holds India guilty of nuking Pakistan — there have been demands for strenuous economic sanctions across the globe,” Lloyd warned. “And anti-Hindu violence is running rampant worldwide, even in the European Union. If we don’t say anything, we will be responsible for the injury or death of innocent people!”
“It can’t be helped, Mr. Secretary. We have to be very careful here, because the alternative explanation is even worse,” cautioned Alvarez. “Before we go to the world with this information, we need to have our ducks in a very straight line, because once we say India didn’t set off the nuke, the only other possible conclusion is that a Pakistani terrorist group possess nuclear weapons — weapons that quite possibly came from China.”
Lloyd groaned and rubbed his forehead. The chief of staff had a very good, but totally distasteful, point. The Pakistani government had repeatedly claimed that the LeT terrorists were operating under probable Chinese influence. If the U.S. were to indirectly corroborate that view, and then suggest that the LeT terror group had nuclear weapons, India might be compelled to conduct a preemptive strike to counter an unprecedented and unacceptable threat. One nuclear blast could become many.
Myles shook his head, depressed. He really didn’t need this right now; the U.S. economy was still trying to recover from the Sino — Littoral Alliance War. He then looked over at Patterson and noted she hadn’t said a word. “You’re being awfully quiet, Joanna. What do you think?”
I’m trying hard not to, she thought to herself. But recognizing that that wasn’t a proper answer, she said, “Both Milt’s and Secretary Lloyd’s views are valid, Mr. President, but neither recommendation is free from the possibility of political backlash against the United States. I’m afraid this is a case of choosing what you believe is the lesser of two evils.”
Myles chuckled, his face sporting a tired grin. “That sounds like our good friend, Ray. He always did have a knack of walking a very fine line.”
Joanna looked down, blushing. Being favorably compared to her former boss and predecessor was quite an accolade — Raymond Kirkpatrick was a Jedi master in the policy world. “I’ll take that as a compliment, Mr. President,” she said softly.
“As it was meant to be,” responded Myles. Taking another deep breath and rising, he continued, “Okay, Milt, we’ll withhold the results of the airborne samples for now. But I want a well-crafted and coordinated press release to go out the minute after Joanna gets back to us with the ground-sample analysis.
“Andrew, I want the State Department to reach out, quietly, to our allies, the Littoral Alliance, and yes, even the Russians and the Chinese. Tell them what we are doing, but not what we’ve learned. Ask them for their patience as we evaluate the samples.”