Not all was rosy. The Americans were coming, and while Qin controlled the South China Sea, the Americans controlled the seas everyplace else. His surface action group in the Indian Ocean, at sea south of the Seychelles, was more of a fleet-in-being the Americans had to honor than a serious naval threat. Qin could not keep open the road China needed to get their goods to markets in the Middle East and Europe and receive the raw materials the People’s economic engine needed, but he could deny entry into the near seas. One part of his strategy — now the strategy of the PRC — was to raise the consumer pain level to such a point that citizens of the West, especially Americans, would petition their governments to find a peaceful truce to resume the flow of Chinese finished goods across the world’s oceans. The other part was to shock the Americans into withdrawaclass="underline" Sink a big ship.
As the driver went past Tiananmen, Qin glanced at the Meridian Gate with the Imperial Palace just visible in the distance. China’s great dynastic period had ended there only 100 years ago — in utter humiliation. It was also there that the Party stood triumphant at the dawn of the People’s Republic, with the Party now able to assert itself on the world stage as never before, facing down a western power and not flinching. Qin could not guarantee victory, but he and the People’s Republic had already won respect, lost two centuries ago when China lay prostrate in opium-induced disgrace as the foreigners took anything they wanted and shipped it away over waters that were rightfully Chinese. Treaty ports. Qin daydreamed as they drove — about humiliations of the past, the glories of victory, and the promise of dominion over the vanquished.
The car stopped at Party headquarters, and a PLA sentry opened Qin’s door. At a confident, unhurried pace, Qin climbed the steps with his entourage carrying the necessary briefcases and folders. As they approached, the great doors were opened, and a functionary greeted the naval visitors, showing them the way as Qin, expressionless and all business, followed in this familiar procedure.
Exiting the elevator, they turned right, footsteps echoing under the hallway’s cathedral ceiling. At the far end, two sentries stood at attention in front of two red banners of the People’s Republic. As Qin approached they saluted, and, in crisp motion, one sentry opened the high door to the Chairman’s office and held it as Qin and his entourage entered. Marshal Dong stood with his staff to his left, and Qin extended his hand with a nod.
“Marshal Dong Li, good day.”
“Comrade Admiral Qin, how is the People’s Liberation Army Navy today?”
“Splendid, Comrade Marshal, and full of fighting spirit,” Qin replied. Both were conscious of their staffs and the Chairman’s staff around them as they exchanged pleasantries.
An attractive secretary in a smart business suit opened a door. Keeping her eyes down, she spoke in a whisper. “Honored Comrades, this way please.”
Qin grabbed the briefing folder from his aide and followed Dong inside. The young woman motioned them to take a seat, and, without a word, the two men sat in two hardback chairs in the empty anteroom. The secretary closed the door behind her, and they were met with silence. Both knew the drill and maintained stoic expressions during the several minutes they were watched and evaluated by state security.
A door that appeared to be part of the paneled wall opened and a young man in a dark suit gave them a respectful nod. With lowered eyes, he motioned them to enter through the door he held for them. With Dong leading, they stepped into the reception area and were greeted by the Chairman himself.
“Comrades, welcome,” the Chairman said. A well-built man of sixty-four, the Chairman had a round face and a kindly smile and wore a charcoal business suit. Qin noted the narrow openings for his eyes, a facial feature common to the cold steppes of the Chairman’s northern heritage.
The Chairman offered his fleshy hand to each officer and led them into a drawing room. Tea waited for them on a low table, and once the staff members were satisfied that all were comfortable, they departed. The Chairman’s assistant remained and sat at a desk along the wall, armed with pen and notepad. As the three men sat in plush, high-backed chairs, the Chairman took a sip of his tea and motioned to the table, indicating the others were free to partake. After each took a few sips, the Chairman began.
“Comrades, what news do you bring?”
Dong put his cup down and answered. “Comrade Chairman, the Americans are approaching through the far seas. Their ships are inside the second chain. They also have forces in the Indian Ocean. In both seas they are stronger than we are, but we will not fight them there. We will wait, instead, for them to come into the Southern Sea, where we are ready.”
“Do you know their plans?”
“We do not have hard intelligence, Comrade Chairman, but we can see they are massing forces east of the Philippines. From there, they will use airpower to attack our outposts and the People’s ships. We cannot repulse every attack, but we can harass them with the People’s submarines and fishing militia, even the People’s Air Force. They, on the other hand, must fly their planes some one thousand kilometers — there and back — to reach our outposts. This is very difficult for fighter planes and requires multiple midair refuelings. It also reduces the number of airplanes they can have over our outposts at the same time.”
“Do we have a chance, then?”
Dong nodded with enthusiasm. “Yes, Comrade Chairman. We have extensive defenses in the south, with interlocking mutual support and a cable network of sensors. Admiral Qin has the People’s Liberation Army Navy fully deployed throughout, at highest readiness, and our planes are combat tested and loaded for war. Also, we have deployed Heaven’s Shield.”
The Chairman nodded as he absorbed Dong’s report. “Yes, your expensive toys. You’ve deployed all?”
“Yes, Comrade Chairman — from the bottom of the renegade province of Taiwan to the open waters north of Singapore — the entire Southern Sea is under Heaven’s Shield.”
The Chairman nodded again. Dong continued.
“We now have the high ground as well as the low ground. Think of it this way: the Americans must fly into our open mouth to attack our outposts. Jaws of missiles coming up from below and missiles raining down from above will chew them up. Any that survive must fight their way through our close-in defenses, and then must fight their way out through jaws that are clenched shut. They will suffer losses so great they will not continue.”
“And if they do, Marshal Dong? Can we depend on them to quit when we — or you — expect them to?”
Dong remained silent and, with a slight tilt of his head, indicated this was Qin’s question to answer.
“Comrade Chairman,” Qin began, “We have engaged with the Americans as they’ve moved through the far seas. These engagements may be characterized as skirmishes, but they give us a rough idea of where their units are. They have three aircraft carriers; two of them nuclear-powered, about a day’s sail from the Philippines in what they think is a sanctuary. In the next 48 hours they will launch their airplanes, and we will shoot many down. But with their ships relatively close, the People’s Navy and militia will be able to make more frequent sighting reports at radio ranges close enough for us to program Rocket Force missiles to attack. We believe the psychological impact of losing one carrier will cause the American people to rise up and demand peace from their leaders. If not, we still even the odds, and our floating aircraft carriers cannot sink.”