Aiken stopped to take a sip from a glass of water on the podium. “In this case, though, the outbreak of hostilities in Scandinavia does not seem to be part of any larger war effort but rather an end in itself. As a result the Soviets have been able to concentrate far more striking power against the region than had been allowed for in any of our Cold War planning. The scope of operations by Spetsnaz and other covert elements alone is on a scale that has caught us completely by surprise.”
“Does that mean they were planning this all along?” Commander James Tennyson asked. He was CO of the Lawrence Kearny, DDG-59, a big bear of a man whose rough exterior concealed a surprising intellect.
“It certainly suggests it,” Aiken replied carefully. “But our intelligence sources haven’t been able to confirm that theory. If the Soviets had intended to provoke a conflict there seems little enough reason for their President to negotiate a compromise agreement … unless we’re seeing an extreme case of the breakdown of cooperation between the political and military sides of their government. There is a temptation to see the assassination as KGB or GRU work designed both to create a pretext for invasion and at the same time to remove the voice of liberal reform which might otherwise have stood in the way, but without more facts at our disposal that must remain an attractive but unconfirmed theory.”
It was a theory, Tarrant thought, that fit the facts damned well. Since the collapse of the Commonwealth and the restoration of the Soviet Union, the struggle between hard-liners in the military and the KGB against liberal reformers and breakaway ethnic, religious, and political groups had been turning Soviet government into a precarious balancing act. The President of the new Union had started out as little more than a front man for the military hard-liners who had reestablished the central authority, but lately he had been striking out on his own, often in direct opposition to military interests. Now that he was gone it looked as if the Soviet Union was speaking with one voice again. And it was the old voice, the voice of Stalin and Khrushchev, the voice of aggression, that was speaking this time.
Tarrant turned his attention back to Aiken, who was continuing from the podium. “Regardless of Soviet intentions, we must accept the realities of the position in Scandinavia. Gentlemen, Russian troops have already overrun most of Finland. The government in Helsinki offered little more than a token protest, and finally capitulated entirely four days ago. And the power brought to bear in Norway will accomplish the something there in a very short time unless the Norwegians receive significant support. That support, sadly, is going to be slow to materialize. NATO is barely capable of functioning in its old role now that the EEC countries are more interested in negotiating compromises instead of taking a hard line. There are rumors that the Labor government is going to lose a no-confidence vote in Britain, but even so, it would take time for the Brits to mobilize anything. And you all know how things stand with the United States.”
The map on the screen behind him changed. “So much for politics,” Aiken said. “What concerns us more at the moment is the military situation in Norway. Soviet troops officially crossed the borders in the early morning hours of June fifth. Bear in mind the presence of the commando forces prior to this, because they’ve had a significant impact upon the prosecution of the campaign so far. The attack was spearheaded by two front-line motor rifle divisions, the 45th and the 54th. These followed the lines of advance we always assumed they’d use, with the 54th violating Finnish neutrality in order to work its way behind the main lines of defense.”
Aiken took another sip of water as the slide changed to a close-up of northern Norway. “Front-line defense of Norway was in the hands of the so-called South Varanger Garrison, with a reserve force, the Finnmark Brigade, to provide rapid backup in case of trouble. The paralysis of the Norwegian government in the first few hours of the crisis caused delays in assembling the reserve formations. They had just dispersed after an earlier mobilization order, and the confusion did nothing to improve their situation.”
He jabbed at the map with a pointer. “Virtually the whole of the South Varanger Garrison and a substantial part of the Finnmark Brigade was surrounded and destroyed by Soviet forces here, at Tana, on the sixth.”
Another map showing the entire country appeared. “While this was happening, the Soviets were carrying out systematic attacks on other parts of the country as well. There are a few things to note … first, the fact that the Red Banner Northern Fleet sortied from the Barents Sea the day before the assassination. This could have been coincidence, of course, or a part of ongoing saber-rattling. But it is significant that the fleet was escorting a very large contingent of naval infantry and Spetsnaz troops. It hasn’t received much notice in the press, but the Soviets have shifted their shipbuilding program over to intensive production of amphibious vessels in the last few years, to go along with their carrier program. A very large portion of that sealift capability is currently in the Northern Fleet. When you add in merchant ships as auxiliary transports you can generate quite a formidable amphibious threat.”
“But do the Russians really have that much capacity for amphibious operations, Commander?” That was Commander Loren Scanlan, skipper of the Gridley. “I mean, sure, they can put together the ships, but they’ve never really focused on marines as a major combat arm, have they?”
“More than you might think, though we’re not certain of exact numbers,” Aiken responded with his usual caution. “Don’t forget, gentlemen, that ever since the end of the Cold War it has been common Soviet practice to assign fully functional motor rifle divisions to the navy as a way to get around the provisions of military reduction agreements, since so-called naval troops don’t count. And while you can’t turn an army division into an instant amphibious force capable of making opposed assaults, you can use them to reinforce strikes delivered by other means. Spetsnaz attacks, for instance, or parachute drops. They grab a likely piece of terrain, and these amphibious troops can come ashore and consolidate too damned fast for the defenders to react.”
The intelligence officer looked around the room as if expecting further comment, but none came. He cleared his throat and went on. “Air strikes on the first two days of the fighting accounted for well over half of the Norwegian air force. Norway has … or rather had about a hundred combat aircraft, mostly F-16s. They’ve put up a good fight, but the odds are just too much. Add the neutralization of several key airfields by commando attacks and runway cratering from missiles and bombs, and you can see the way things are headed. We estimate the Soviets will have virtual air supremacy in Scandinavia within another few days.
Tarrant scanned the officers for reactions to that. The CAG staff looked particularly grim, as well they might. With most of the Norwegian air force knocked out, carrier-based planes would be seriously out-matched in numbers. Even the vaunted Top Gun ten-to-one kill ratio might not be enough if Jefferson’s air wing had to go into battle.
“The final leg of the Soviet attack rested in air transport of sizable combat forces into secured positions in Oslo and Tromso,” Aiken went on. “Here again their commando and desant troops gave them a real edge. The move into Oslo was roughly comparable to the buildup of forces in Kabul during the opening stages of the Afghan war. Combined with amphibious landings at Bodo and Narvik, these operations badly disrupted the entire Norwegian coast. The long, thin nature of the country, with its poor terrain and limited road net, renders Norway vulnerable to this sort of divide-and-conquer technique.”