If the Soviets could restrict the conflict to the Atlantic, they need not start a hot war in central Germany, nor on the southern or northern flanks: the results would be too catastrophic, even for them. If we were to lose this second Battle of the Atlantic the Soviets would slap down their edict: ' Now, you've lost so far, so we'll stop any further Atlantic reinforcements from America; accept our conditions.' Even if we attacked and destroyed their naval bases, it was conceivable that the war could be restricted to the Atlantic…
The slides were flickering upon the screen, as the staff captain began briefing them on world dispositions: STANAVFORLANT was steaming to its war station in the Northern Sea; Glorious and her group were moving north, to be detached home for Christmas leave; and, for the sake of prudence, Clear Lane had been curtailed early, so that some ships at least could be granted Christmas leave before any balloons went up. The First Sea Lord felt pleased as he watched the careful planning working so smoothly, the ships of the Fleet steaming without fuss to their war stations. This was the peace-time phase of the Second Battle of the Atlantic. How many Britons, huddled around their tellies tonight, had an inkling that a few miles to the north of Sutherland, their countrymen in the Orkneys and Shetlands were pawns in the Russian game? The Orkneys-Shetland gap; the Shetland-Faeroes, the Iceland-Faeroes and Greenland-Iceland gaps were the Clapham Junction of the sea lanes in this area; the Russian Northern and Baltic Fleets had to slip through these gaps to reach the Atlantic Ocean. The monitoring of these movements through these gaps had alerted the NATO politicians: they could not shut their eyes to what was happening this week. The Prime Minister had given the First Sea Lord carte blanche this morning, but had insisted upon being informed immediately should the Defence Chiefs decide to go ahead. Sir Anthony promised to use the hot line before coming to a final decision.
There was, the First Sea Lord thought, an air of unreality in the bunker this morning, as he listened to the briefing: this historic moment was the culmination of forty years' developments in common communications, of exercising, time and time again, the international, administrative machine of NATO, and training politicians to cope with rapid military decisions. Confrontation was the politician's primary headache; he must be able to control events by denying the enemy command of the sea, the land and air spaces vital to our defence. Communications were such that the politician and the commanding officer of the ship at sea now understood each other's problems. The First Sea Lord had so often hammered home this fundamentaclass="underline" the marrying of the politician's control with the captain-on-the-spot's understanding equated resolute action. Military power was only an extension of the political will. He had rammed this home at every staff course he had addressed. Sir Anthony was convinced that confrontation and escalation could be halted by resolute action at sea, but, however sensitively the rules of engagement were framed, the first CO to be fired upon would be an unlucky bloke.
Peter Hawke's voice was grating from the gloom, his questions crisp:
'How many submarines are out?'
'We've logged 141, sir.'
'What general area?'
The Vice-Chief of Naval Staff took over from the staff captain, now that discussion time was approaching. He indicated the traditional Greenland-Iceland-UK gaps, then shifted his spotlight to the western approaches, the areas south of Ireland and north of the Azores. The Soviet submarine movements could give an indication of what the enemy was up to….
'We're waiting for the feints,' VCNS continued. 'From the most recent reports, especially after the incidents earlier this week, we can assume that the enemy is not playing this time.'
Sir Anthony spoke up, his first contribution so far:
'The Chiefs and I had a meeting with the Prime Minister early this forenoon, gentlemen. The FO consider that these incidents and movements represent real probes by the enemy: as we have been expecting, he is not playing to NATO rules. He's testing us seriously, beyond the Tropic of Cancer. An hour ago, two Delta II's, a Charlie II and a Victor were reported north-east of the Falkland Islands, as the Argentine Fleet put to sea with its amphibious back-up. As you know, political pressure's hot there from the Argentinian oil lobby.'
'You wish to bring up the Indian Ocean, sir?' VCNS prompted.
'No, Charles. Would you remind us, please?'
The spotlight wavered to the trouble spots: off the Cape of Good Hope. Mauritius — and now, to provide the pincers Tristan da Cunha in the South Atlantic. VCNS continued: ' The Soviet fishing fleet is still behaving enigmatically. A minor group is fishing off Durban, supported by Kashins and a back-up force of AS ships in the deep field, at the southern entrance to the Mozambique Channel. Four Victor us have been positively identified working out of Mauritius.' The Vice-Chief of the Naval Staff cleared his throat: ' You'll see why this is significant, gentlemen,' and his spot flickered to the Aldabra islands off the northern tip of Madagascar. 'The American Indian Ocean Strike Fleet is taking care of things here, but we are concerned at this morning's developments…' He turned towards Sir Anthony: ' Would you care to comment, sir?'
Sir Anthony's voice growled from the centre of the room, ' Go on, Charles — let's get nearer home. All this is bad news, but let's get to the nitty.'
'Very good, sir.' He touched a button and the area they all knew so well glowed across the wall map.
'Satellites are reporting major sailings from the Kola Inlet: a 56 per cent increase in submarine traffic. Norwegian Maritime Patrol Lockheeds are doing their best but have been swamped: they have been reporting four Soviet submarines a day, but yesterday the count went up to nine.' He laughed shortly: ' We'll soon be running short of sonobuoys,' and glanced at the Controller before continuing: 'Our Nimrods from Kinloss are fully stretched in the Greenland and Faeroes gaps. The sonar picture tells the same tale: the signature print-outs confirm major Soviet effort. About 36 per cent of enemy submarine sailings slipped through our first line of surveillance patrols; they were presumably making their departure dived and were screened by the noise of surface ships.'
The First Sea Lord listened to the summing up, glad to hear the serious situation being repeated. '…. As you all know, the Icelandic elections are impending and the communist party poised to take over again. Their main election plank is that they will revoke the Keflavik Base agreement with the United States and throw out the Americans.' The VCNS paused and Sir Anthony could hear the blower of the projector whirring in the silence. ' The Americans flew massive reinforcements into Keflavik two days ago to pre-empt Soviet landings, should they be invited in by the communists. Yesterday evening, the Soviets gave the Americans twenty-four hours to start evacuating their reinforcements.'
Sir Anthony was always faintly amused by Charles, who enjoyed his moments of drama. When he had finished the briefing, the VCNS turned towards his boss: 'That's as far as I can go, sir.' He raised his eyebrows in anticipation and stood aside for the First Sea Lord to take over.