Director of National Intelligence Mary Pat Foley chimed in. “The most recent nuclear test performed in North Korea, we think, used uranium and not plutonium, and if this is, in fact, the case, it shows us they are expanding their capabilities.
“They’ve had three successful underground tests. They’ve got a plutonium bomb, that is not in doubt. We estimate they have between five and ten devices. The yield is in question, but suffice it to say they are big enough to pose a threat.”
When Foley finished, Ward picked back up. “As I said before, DIA speculates the DPRK has reached the sophistication for miniaturization of their nuclear weapons to the degree they could, in theory, place a small plutonium-based warhead on one of their Rodong missiles, with a range of one thousand kilometers. If this is, in fact, the case, it isn’t too far-fetched to think they could weaponize a longer, intermediate-range rocket.” Ward hastened to add, “We do think the targeting of the missile would be inaccurate and the efficiency of the warhead to be low.”
Ryan asked, “How low? What is the estimated accuracy of the Taepo-2?”
“Undetermined. There is a twenty-five percent probability of—”
Ryan interrupted. “Are we talking accurate to within a few miles, tens of miles, hundreds of miles? Just a general idea.”
Ward looked back down to his page.
Ryan sighed. “Colonel. You are being too careful. We’re just two guys talking here. We didn’t bring you in to read the damn paper in front of you, I can read it myself. I need to hear what you know, and what you think.”
Ward cleared his throat. “Yes, sir. We think the Taepodong-2, if successfully deployed, would be accurate to within twenty-five to fifty miles.”
Secretary of State Adler broke in now. “It doesn’t have to be accurate. It’s a terror weapon. An instrument of blackmail. Choi isn’t after a tactical advantage. He’s after money, power in his region. The world’s worst nuclear bomb on top of the world’s most inaccurate ICBM still scares the hell out of a lot of people.”
Ryan nodded. “Me, for instance.”
“Me too,” Adler admitted. “Still, it’s important to remember what’s going on here. The entire North Korean nuclear industry isn’t some wacko plot to destroy the world, it’s a wacko plot to earn the respect of the world.”
Ryan said, “I agree with that, but I wouldn’t characterize it as wacko. North Korea’s GDP falls right between those of Kenya and Zambia. If we only had economic factors to consider and not military factors, we wouldn’t be spending any more time concerning ourselves with Pyongyang than we would with Lusaka.”
Chief of Staff Arnie Van Damm glanced up from the papers in front of him with a look of confusion.
“Capital of Zambia, Arnie,” Ryan added.
Arnie nodded and looked back down.
Ryan said, “The DPRK already gets more attention than they would warrant if they didn’t have a nuke, but they want to be treated with all the deference of the other nuclear weapon — holding states. Frankly, once they have a working ICBM that can hit California, I will be forced to give them that respect.”
Ryan turned his attention back to Ward. “So to recap, we know the rocket failed before third stage, we don’t know why, but we’re looking into it.”
Ward replied sheepishly, “Yes, Mr. President. Unfortunately, that’s where we are.”
“Okay,” Ryan said. “Thanks for your report.”
The two DIA employees looked to Mary Pat Foley, who nodded at them and then turned her gaze toward the door. Ward and the major packed up their briefcases and started heading out of the room.
Ryan called after them. “Colonel? Major?”
They both spun on their heels. “Sir?”
“You did the best with what you have. The fault wasn’t the messengers. I just need more to the message.”
“Yes, sir,” the two DIA analysts said.
“And next time you come back, be ready for a discussion, not a presentation. You’ll find I’m pretty easy to chat with when I’m engaged. You guys have the knowledge, and I’m just about the most curious son of a gun you’ll ever meet.”
Another round of “Yes, sir,” and the two left the room.
When they were gone Scott Adler smiled. “That colonel looked like a recruit just off the bus. Did you see the deer-in-the-headlights look he gave you when you asked for the flare duration?”
Jack shrugged. “I guess I went a little overboard. I’ve been reading a lot of our primary intelligence on the DPRK’s systems. Frankly, I was hoping there was more intel than what was in the reports that make it to me. There are a hell of a lot of holes in our knowledge.”
CIA director Canfield said, “You can’t get too deep in the trees, boss. You are the one everybody relies on to see the entire forest.”
“Yeah. I know.”
Canfield added, “Mr. President. It’s important for you to understand why there are gaps in our knowledge of North Korea. Our SIGINT, ELINT, and MASINT are all fair to good. We have spaceborne platforms, airborne platforms, surface platforms, and even subsurface platforms, and they are all pointed at the Korean Peninsula. We have cyber-platforms too, of course. But our HUMINT is lacking. Most of the human intelligence we have comes from defectors to the south. They are usually of poor quality. Subsistence farmers, laborers, teenagers who make it over.”
Jack said, “You are saying we are in the dark.”
“From a HUMINT perspective, we are nearly that. We have some low-level government officials in our pocket. But the ones in Pyongyang we do hold some influence over are not able to communicate with us regularly, if at all. We don’t have a single, CIA-run government asset in the entire nation. Even at the absolute height of the Cold War, we always had agents in the Soviet Union. But these days we are dark in North Korea.”
“Okay,” Ryan said, then he drummed his fingers on the table. “Getting back to this failed launch. I wish we could all celebrate, but the problem with North Korea”—he held a hand up quickly—“one of the problems with North Korea, is that bad news for them is not necessarily good news for us. We’ve all seen it before, right? They respond to an embarrassing failure with a flexing of their muscles. Saber rattling.”
Mary Pat agreed. “Their long-range missile blows up during second-stage sep so they ‘test-fire’ two dozen short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan.”
SecDef Burgess said, “Or they shell islands, or send mini-subs south of the Thirty-eighth Parallel.”
Ryan added, “The new Choi has been going out of his way to show us he is to be taken just as seriously as the old Choi.”
The national security adviser said, “Mr. President. May I be the voice of perspective here? Even with all this taken into account, the DPRK is not our main problem right now. Even if there is some new low-intensity conflict on the Korean Peninsula, there are other, more pressing issues going on in the world. I think we need to count our blessings they still can’t hit California with a plutonium bomb, and then return our focus to Russia, NATO, China, the Middle East, and all the other more critical issues out there.”
Jack nodded and rubbed his eyes. “Why can’t all the assholes out there just take a number and threaten us one at a time?” There were stressed chuckles around the room. “So… what do we do about this?”
Adler said, “I suggest we go back to the Security Council, push for another vote condemning the DPRK.”
“The UN? Seriously? To what end?” Ryan asked. “China will just veto. Russia, too.”
Adler shook his head now. “China and North Korea aren’t the allies they used to be. Now that Choi the son has taken over for Choi the father, his destabilizing is pissing them off in Beijing. Remember China and DPRK had that big blowup over mineral rights last year. We won’t get a vote from China, but it’s possible we’ll get an abstention.”