David and the other members of the intelligence community played a dangerous game. They carefully curated a tapestry of truths, half-truths, and utter deception for their Chinese counterparts. Human penetrations and cyber-warriors on both sides of the Pacific attempting to steal secrets each day. The penalty for being caught was death. The penalty for failure was defeat and dishonor.
David listened intently to the morning brief being given by one of the intelligence analysts.
“They launched the attack from Easter Island. We estimate about twenty to thirty Y-20 transport aircraft were used.”
“How were they able to execute so quickly?” David asked. “We only discovered their fleet movements a few days ago.”
“The PLA Navy has been on an island-hopping campaign in the South Pacific. They’ve lengthened runways to support their transport aircraft and reinforced them with SAM sites. The entire South Pacific is now a Chinese air defense zone, and a denied area to our surveillance flights.”
“We’ve had some maritime patrol aircraft sanitizing…”
“Those patrol aircraft are stretched too thin. It was down to one flight every few days in the area south of the Galapagos.”
David turned to another analyst. “What about our other naval assets in the vicinity?”
“The initial attack was by submarine. We think the Chinese had two fast-attack subs in the area. They used one as a decoy, drawing our Los Angeles-class submarine away from our destroyers ahead of the attack.”
David looked at the map of the Pacific. “Drawing it away from our ships?”
“Yes. The Chinese snuck two frigates up…”
He shook his head, folding his arms across his chest. “How the hell were PLA Navy warships operating that far out without us knowing?”
“A gap in surveillance coverage. They must have known our flight patterns and timed it accordingly. We think they resupplied at Easter Island. The ships were probably low on fuel by the time they got there.”
“And our ships didn’t detect them?”
“Supply chain problems. The Navy says that their organic air assets on those destroyers had been out of commission, unable to get spare parts since they were operating so far south from the rest of the fleet. If the maritime patrol aircraft hadn’t made a run in forty-eight hours prior… fifteen knots times forty-eight hours… that’s a lot of distance they can cover, if our fly is down.”
David shook his head. This was a similar pattern around the world. Everyone was spread too thin.
“And satellite reconnaissance?”
Marcia Shea, the representative from the National Reconnaissance Office, said, “There is no change to our capacity issues, I’m afraid. We’re able to get about one bird up per week right now, with an average life of thirty-six hours before they get shot down by Chinese anti-satellite weapons. Priority has been surveillance around Hawaii and North America. Secondary is for the Chinese convoys now crossing the Pacific.”
David tried not to lose his temper. His sister Victoria had been aboard the USS Stockdale when it sank. Signals intelligence indicated that a few American survivors had been picked out of the water and taken prisoner by the Chinese. As of yet no names were listed on the prisoner roster.
David said, “These ISR limitations are absolutely killing us.”
Marcia replied, “Surveillance inadequacies are hampering the Chinese, too. That big satellite launch they just made has been completely shot down after three days. It gave them a snapshot, but that’s it.”
“It gave them exactly what they needed.” David stood and walked toward the wall, taking a few breaths to calm down. “As long as China’s new Space Warfare Center is operational, they have a capability we don’t. They can launch hundreds of mini-satellites into orbit at a much lower cost. The Chinese advantage is too great.”
The room was silent until a woman spoke from behind David. “You’re both right.”
David turned to see that Susan had entered the briefing room. “Both sides are suffering from a lack of surveillance information,” she continued. “But the system of reusable rockets the Chinese have developed at their Beishi facility is a game changer. It allows them to overcome the advancements we’ve made with our anti-satellite weapons. They can launch a few hundred satellites, knowing that they will be shot down. But the rocket launch’s cost is a fraction of what it once was, with the self-landing reusable capability. We are still trying to catch up. And from what I understand, we’ve got months until our own similar program is ready. Is that accurate?”
Marcia nodded. “Yes, it is.”
Susan said, “The result of this shift is that China gets to use modern satellite imagery and communications for a day or two, every three to four weeks. Then we shoot down their satellites, and they start over. It’s costly, but it gives them a next-generation C4ISR capability while our military is fighting a Vietnam-era mechanical war.”
An Air Force officer in the room chimed in, “That’s a bit of an exaggeration, but the situation is pretty painful compared to what we used to train for.”
Susan tapped the tips of her fingers together. “So where does this leave us?”
David said, “The old-fashioned game our intelligence services have been playing for decades.”
Susan agreed. “Precisely. Neither side knows what cards the other is holding. Neither we nor the Chinese can see everything via satellite like we could two years ago. We can’t see their military movements.”
David said, “But they can see ours… if only for twenty-four hours.”
Susan held up a finger. “Can they, though? Even if they launch at their max capacity, my understanding is that they must still make choices.”
Marcia nodded. “That’s correct. Even with all of those satellites in orbit, they still have to focus on certain regions. Most of those satellites are for GPS and datalink. Only a few dozen are for surveillance. So they have to prioritize.”
Susan said, “So they can’t simultaneously look at our Air Force bases in the Nevada desert, our naval submarine pens in Kings Bay, and how many helicopters have just landed at Camp David. They have to choose. What’s the most important target? Always remember that.”
She made eye contact with everyone in the room, but David suspected she was mostly talking to him. His continuing education on high-level war strategy.
A chime sounded on the wall clock, signaling the top of the hour. David said, “All right. Thanks, folks. That’s all for now.” People stood and began funneling out to their next meeting. When the door shut, he and Susan were alone.
David massaged his temples as he spoke. “We believe that the scientist, Rojas, is being forced to work for the Chinese. NSA signals intelligence indicates they are moving him to a secure research facility somewhere in the region.”
Susan nodded. “I saw that.”
David said, “If the Chinese get that technology…”
“I know.”
“Should we speak with General Schwartz? See if JSOC can draw something up? Chase can link up with them and…”
“Chase is flying up here,” Susan interjected.
“Eglin?”
“Yes. He’ll be arriving shortly.” Seeing the surprised look on his face, she added, “I need his help with a recruitment.”
“Who’s the target?”
“Someone I think can help us get our scientist back.”
David frowned. “Who?”
“Lena Chou.”
9
The C-12 military transport aircraft taxied up to the base operations building at Eglin Air Force Base and came to a halt. Chase looked out the window, seeing his brother David waiting for him on the tarmac. A few moments later they embraced, and both men slid inside the back of a waiting US Air Force sedan. The car sped off to the opposite side of the base.