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*8 When Dayton and his colleagues autopsied the men who died, they found no difference in the amount of atherosclerosis between those on the two diets.
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†9 Ordinary milk was replaced with an emulsion of soybean oil in skim milk, and butter and ordinary margarine were replaced with a margarine made of polyunsaturated fats. These changes alone supposedly increased the ratio of polyunsaturated to saturated fats sixfold.
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*10 The results were also presented at a conference of the American Heart Association in 1975. A small chart documenting the results, without explanation, was then published as an abstract in the journal Circulation, along with the other abstracts from the conference.
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*11 A second randomized double-blind controlled trial—the Heart and Estrogen/Progestin Replacement Study—tested hormone replacement in twenty-three hundred women who had already had heart disease. It also found no benefit from the hormones and suggested an increased risk of heart disease, at least for the first few years of taking hormone-replacement therapy.
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*12 Frantz’s Minnesota Coronary Survey was technically a pilot project for the National Diet-Heart Study.
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*13 The investigative reporter William Broad suggested another version of this story in Science in June 1979. He said the Dietary Goals constituted a last-ditch effort to save McGovern’s Select Committee, which had required renewal every two years since its inception and was now facing a reorganization that would downgrade its status to a subcommittee of the Senate Committee on Agriculture. “They were fighting for their life,” Cortez Enloe, editor of Nutrition Today, told Broad. “Their tenure was up.”
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*14 As Dietary Goals explained, “Fat supplies 9 calories per gram, whereas protein and carbohydrates, the other two energy sources, supply only 4 calories per gram…. Consequently, particularly for those not involved in heavy physical activity, the consumption of a diet deriving 40 percent of its calories from fat may result in a continual struggle to lose weight.”
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*15 It also affirmed the suspicion that polyunsaturated fats might be dangerous, and so further diminished the role of margarines and corn oils in dietary recommendations.
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*16 The Honolulu Heart Program offered an extreme example of this conflict in 1985. The study revealed that high-fat diets were significantly associated with a lower risk of total mortality, cancer mortality, and stroke mortality. On the other hand, the percentage of calories as fat and dietary-cholesterol intake were both associated with a higher risk of heart-disease death. Thus, the authors concluded that “these data provide support for the diet-heart hypothesis,” albeit with a caveat: “They also suggest that men with low fat intakes have a higher total mortality rate than men with higher fat intakes.”
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*17 In 1997, the MRFIT investigators also reported that the men in the treatment group subsequently had more lung cancer than the controls. This was despite the fact that 21 percent of the men had quit smoking in the treatment group, compared with 6 percent in the usual-care group. Because it was hard to believe that quitting smoking increased rates of lung cancer, the MRFIT investigators suggested the possibility that the lower cholesterol levels in the treatment group “might explain [their] higher lung cancer mortality.” And, indeed, serum cholesterol showed a “marginally significant inverse association” with lung-cancer mortality. Nonetheless, the MRFIT investigators concluded that this was not a likely explanation for the results.
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*18 The fourth author was Henry McGill, a pathologist who studied atherosclerosis in humans and in baboons, who says he had agreed unconditionally with the American Heart Association position on dietary fat since the early 1960s.
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*19 Though women were clearly meant to adhere to the low-fat guidelines, they had not been included in any of the clinical trials. The evidence suggested that high cholesterol in women is not associated with more heart disease, as it might be in men, with the possible exception of women under fifty, in whom heart disease is exceedingly rare.
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*20 Browner’s analysis also assumed that restricting dietary fat would reduce cancer deaths, which was speculative then and is even more speculative now.
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*21 William Taylor, the Harvard physician who had done the first of the three analyses on the questionable benefits of eating less fat, was unimpressed with this argument. “Most patients don’t come into my office saying I really want to contribute to the public health statistics in this country,” he said. “If they did, I’d know what to do for them.”
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*22 Melvin Konner has doubts about the conclusions. “Boyd and I probably did underestimate the amount of meat in the Paleolithic diet based on our extrapolations for hunter-gatherers,” he said. “I just don’t think it’s nearly as extreme as this paper claims.”
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*23 They did not, however, lose any weight because of this, which is paradoxical, and an issue we will discuss later.
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*24 This paradox could also include Switzerland. In 1979, Swiss public-health authories reported that cardiovascular mortality had undergone a “suprising decline” in Switzerland between 1951 and 1976, during a period in which the Swiss increased their consumption of animal fats by 20 percent.
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*25“Among women high blood cholesterol is not associated with all-cause mortality nor even with cardiovascular mortality,” wrote UCSF epidemiologist Steve Hulley and his collaborators in a 1992 Circulation editorial about these data, entitled “Health Policy on Blood Cholesteroclass="underline" Time to Change Directions.”“We are coming to realize that the results of cardiovascular research in men, which represents the great majority of the effort thus far, may not apply to women.”
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*26 Conspicuously absent from the final analysis, because it was not a “randomized” trial and so the results could not be trusted, was the famous Helsinki Mental Hospital Study that had been cited by three generations of investigators, including The Surgeon General’s Report on Nutrition and Health and the National Academies of Science Diet and Health report, as providing the most compelling evidence that cholesterol-lowering diets lowered mortality, not just heart disease.