The blockade began on April 24, and the way it was carried out was rather peculiar. When I arrived in the city a week or so before the blockade, the situation was more peaceful, but there were no trains going through Slovyansk. Once the blockade began, they were running again. It turned out that, before the blockade, they had not been running because the separatists blocked the tracks. What for? Perhaps they were afraid that Ukrainian soldiers would be redeployed along this route.
Actually, life in “blockaded” Slovyansk didn’t change. All the shops were supplied as before and there were no problems with ATM machines and banks. In the restaurants you could order any meal from the menu. If someone didn’t have to leave the city, he wouldn’t even notice that something had changed. Even “greens” were less visible in the streets—either they were staying in their bases or they were dispersed on the outskirts. The only difference is the increased air traffic over the city. Leaflets are dropped from the helicopters. The residents are informed about the antiterrorist operation and warned not to aid “terrorists.”
“I wouldn’t touch them. People say they are contaminated,” one resident tells me, when I pick up a leaflet that has landed in a tree. It is a popular rumor spread by separatists that this is the way the Ukrainian forces want to finish off the locals. The militants eagerly shoot at the helicopters, occasionally bringing them down or damaging them.
The checkpoints of the Ukrainian forces blockading the city look very serious. They are not just some concrete blocks piled up at random and guarded by poorly armed men. There are armored personnel carriers, National Guard, and police units. They are all in defensive fighting positions. Every now and then the helicopters land, bringing provisions. But instead of actually blockading the city, they simply control the passersby. Anybody can move in and out of Slovyansk without any problems.
Slovyansk is a strategically important location, because it offers the easiest passage to the Kharkiv region. When Ukrainians deployed their forces there, the militants captured new sites in other parts of Donbas. In April and June in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions they took control in Alchevsk, Amvrosiivka, Antratsit, Artemivsk, Avdiivka, Druzhkivka, Dzerzhinsk, Khartsyzk, Komsomolsky, Kostiantynivka, Krasnoarmiysk, Krasnodon, Krasnyi Luch, Lysychansk, Makiivka, Mariupol, Novoazovsk, Pervomaysk, Rodinsky, Severodonetsk, Siversk, Stakhanov, Stanytsia Luhanska, Starobesheve, Sverdlovsk, and Zdhanov. In the majority of cases the cities and towns were captured without any fighting. Control over the Ukrainian-Russian border was given up, too, and this very abandonment will turn out to be the biggest tactical mistake of the Ukrainians.
5. KIEV IS POWERLESS
MAY 11, 2014. Some residents of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions decided to participate in the referendum. Its purpose is to “officially” bring into being two parastates: the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. Everything seems quiet and the voting is not interrupted by any incidents. However, when you go to the State Regional Administration occupied by the separatists and the Central Electoral Commission that they have established, you will understand that this peace is not completely spontaneous. Order is maintained by armed men, who seem to have multiplied since March. They don’t tolerate any opposition. Therefore, those who don’t vote stay at home or pack their bags to move to a more peaceful location.
“You must have a lot of confidence to defend the Ukrainian state,” a lady journalist tells me. She is right. Although separatists were in the minority, nobody stands in their way. It is probable that no one would have interfered with the referendum, even if its champions had not been armed. Since the fall of the Yanukovych regime, the Ukrainian state has not existed in Donbas.
People are queuing up in front of the very few polling stations. These are Donetsk residents who want to take part in the referendum. What will happen next?
“I don’t know,” replies almost every single person I ask. For many of them it is simply an opportunity to express their disagreement with Kiev’s politics, but this doesn’t necessarily mean they want their regions to separate from Ukraine. They often talk about federalization, but in fact they would be happy with simple decentralization. They claim they want a stronger say in electing the authorities and that the referendum is a means to achieve this. And what about Russia?
“Those who want to join Russia must have been paid off,” says seventy-five-year-old Natalya on her way to the polling station to vote for the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Among the people who have already voted or are about to do so, there are some who believe that their choice is a step toward Russia. I hear this from quite a few Donetsk residents.
Up to the beginning of May it was not obvious if the referendum would take place at the appointed time. Its fate was uncertain until the very end, although it had been planned at the beginning of the pro-Russian events in Donbas. Even in mid-April the Communist Anatoly Khmelovy from Slovyansk maintained that there would be only one question: about federalization. Then it was said that the referendum would be about regional independence. At another point I heard there would be three questions: about independence, about joining Russia, and about remaining in Ukraine. In Donetsk there were rumors about two referenda. The former was to be about independence, the latter about joining Russia. In the end this project was abandoned.
“Here everybody wants to be part of Russia. This is one of the main slogans raised during the marches,” explains Myroslav Rudenko a few days after the referendum. He represents the self-proclaimed authorities and walks around in a T-shirt with the image of the “people’s governor” Pavel Gubarev on it. It’s true that you could hear this expression quite often during the demonstrations. But only a marginal group among the Donbas residents participated in the protests. After talking to them for a moment I realized that only a few of them actually wanted to become Russian citizens. Yet to the unrecognized authorities this is irrelevant, as is the Kremlin’s lack of full enthusiasm for incorporating Novorossiya into the Russian Federation.
The separatists instantly rejected Kiev’s proposal to organize an all-Ukrainian referendum on federalization. (According to Ukrainian law, a referendum can only be held on a nationwide basis.) In the beginning of April the Ukrainian Center for Public Opinion Research (Rejtinh) conducted a survey in which Ukrainian citizens (including residents of Crimea) were asked what kind of state Ukraine should be. The results: 64 percent of respondents opted for a unitary state, 14 percent supported federalization, 10 percent wanted a unitary state but without Crimea, and only 1 percent wished for Ukraine to break up into several states. In Eastern Ukraine the results were, respectively, 45 percent, 26 percent, 8 percent, and 4 percent. The research sample consisted of twelve hundred people. Later research can’t be treated seriously because the territories controlled by separatists were not included.
When at seven in the morning I walk to the polling station to watch the referendum, streets in Donetsk are almost empty, as they usually are on a Sunday. Apart from occasional trolleybuses moving at a snail’s pace, I don’t see any vehicles or people. The sun is rising slowly, heralding a pleasant day. When I arrive at the location it is a quarter to eight. All stations will open in fifteen minutes. This one, like many others, is situated in a primary school. People are gathering. Right now, there are twenty, but newcomers keep arriving.