That got me a black look from the Geek, but Massha was already into it.
"First, you've got to understand that for the most part, bookies aren't betting their own money. They're acting as agents or go-betweens for people who are betting different sides of the same contest. Ideally, the money bet on each side evens out, so the bookie himself doesn't have any of his own money riding on the contest."
"Then how do they make their money?"
"Sometimes off a percentage, sometimes... but that's another story. What we're talking about is odds. Okay?"
"I guess so," I shrugged.
"Now, the situation I described is the ideal. It assumes the teams or fighters or whatever are evenly matched. That way, some people bet one side, some the other, but overall it evens out. That's even odds or l-l."
She shifted her weight a bit, ignoring the glares from our fellow patrons when the entire row of seats wobbled in response.
"But suppose things were different. What if, instead of an even match, one side had an advantage... like say if Badaxe were going to fight King Rodrick?"
"That's easy," I smiled. "Nobody would bet on the King."
"Precisely," Massha nodded. "Then everybody would bet one side, and the bookies would have to cover all the bets with their own money... bets they stood a good chance of losing."
"So they don't take any bets."
"No. They rig things so that people will bet on the king."
I cocked an eyebrow at her.
"They could try, but I sure wouldn't throw my gold away like that. I'd back Badaxe."
"Really?" Massha smiled. "What if, instead of betting one gold piece to win one gold piece, you had to bet ten gold pieces on Badaxe to win one back?"
"Well..."
"Let me make it a little harder. How about if you bet one gold piece on the King, and he won, that instead of getting one gold piece back, you got a hundred?"
"I... um ... might take a long shot on the King," I said, hesitantly. "There's always a chance he could get lucky. Besides, if I lose, I'm only out one gold piece."
"... And that's how bookies use odds to cover themselves. Now, how they figure out how many bets they need on the King at 'x' odds to cover the bets they have on Badaxe at 'y' odds is beyond me."
I looked at the Deveel next to me with new respect.
"Gee, Geek. I never really realized how complicated your work is."
The Deveel softened a bit. They're as susceptible to flattery as anyone else.
"Actually, it's even more complicated than that," he admitted modestly. "You've got to keep track of several contests at once, sometimes even use the long bets from one to cover the short bets on another. Then there are side bets, like who will score how often in which period in the Big Game. It isn't easy, but a sharp being can make a living at it."
"So what are the odds tonight?"
The Deveel grimaced.
"Lousy. It's one of those Badaxe and the King matchups, if I was following your example right. In this case, the team you'll see in red trunks are Badaxe.
They're hotter than a ten dollar laser and have won their last fifteen bouts. The weak sisters ... the King to you... will be in white trunks and haven't won a bout in two years. When the Mob put their bet down, the odds were running about two hundred to one against the whites." I whistled softly.
"Wow. Two hundred in gold return on a one-goldpiece bet. Did you remember to act surprised when they put their money down?"
"I didn't have to act," the Geek said through tight lips. "Not with the size bet they came up with. Being forewarned, I had expected they wouldn't be going small, but still..." He shook his head and lapsed into silence. I hadn't really paused to consider the implication of the odds, but I did now. If betting one piece could get you two hundred back, then a bet of a thousand would have a potential payback of two hundred thousand! And a ten thousand bet...
"How big was their bet?" I asked fearfully. "Big enough that if I lose, I'll be working for the Mob for the rest of my life to pay it off... and Deveels don't have short life-spans."
"Wait a minute. Didn't Aahz tell you that if you lost, we'd cover it out of our expense money?"
"He did." the Deveel said. "And he also pointed out that if you were covering my losses, you'd also take all winnings if things went as planned. I opted to take the risk, and the winnings, myself." Massha leaned forward to stare. "Are you that confident, or that greedy?" "More the latter," the Geek admitted. "Then again, I got burnt rather badly betting against Skeeve here in the Big Game. I figure it's worth at least one pass backing the shooter who's working a streak."
I shook my head in puzzlement.
"Aren't you afraid of losing?"
"Well, it did occur to me that it might be me and not the Mob who's being set up here. That's why I'm sitting next to you. If this turns out to be a double cross ..."
"You're pretty small to be making threats. Geek," Massha warned.
"... And you're too big to dodge fast if I decide I'm being had," the Deveel shot back.
"Knock it off, both of you," I ordered. "It's academic anyway. There won't be any problems ... or if there are, I'll be as surprised as you are, Geek."
"More surprised, I hope," the Deveel sneered. "I'm half expecting this to blow up, remember?"
"But Aahz has assured me that the fix is in."
"Obviously. Otherwise, the Mob wouldn't be betting so heavily. The question is, which fix is going to work, theirs or yours?"
Just then a flurry of activity across the arena caught my eye. The Mob had just arrived ... in force. Shai-ster was there, flanked by Guido and Nunzio and backed by the remaining members of the two teams currently assigned to the Bazaar. Seen together and moving, as opposed to individually feeding their faces at Fats', they made an impressive group. Apparently others shared my opinion. Even though they were late, no one contested their right to prime seats as they filed into the front row. In fact, there was a noticeable bailing out from the desired seats as they approached.
It was still a new enough experience for me to see other beings I knew in a crowd at the Bazaar that I stood up and waved at them before I realized what I was doing. Then it dawned on me! If they saw me sitting with the Geek and then lost a big bet, they might put two and two together and get five!
I stopped waving and tried to ease back into my seat, but it was too late. Guido had spotted my gyrations and nudged Shai-ster to point me out. Our eyes met and he nodded acknowledgement before returning to scanning the crowd. Crestfallen, I turned to apologize to the Geek, only to find myself addressing a character with a pasty complexion and hairy ears who bore no resemblance at all to the Deveel who had been sitting beside me.
I almost. .. almost!... looked around to see where the Geek had gone. Then I did a little mental arithmetic and figured it out.
A disguise spell!
I'd gotten so used to fooling people myself with that spell that when someone did the same to me, I was completely taken in.
"Still kinda new at this intrigue stuff, aren't you?" he observed dryly from his new face.
Fortunately I was saved the problem of thinking up a suitable response by the entrance of the contestants. With the scramble of planning and launching our counter-offensive, I hadn't really been briefed on what the Mob was betting on except that it would be a tagteam wrestling match. No one said what the contestants would be like, and I had assumed it would be like the matches I had seen back on Klah. I should have known better. The two teams were made up of beings who barely stood high enough to reach my waist! I mean they were small! They looked like kids ... if you're used to having kids around with four arms each. "What are those?" I demanded.
"Those are the teams," the Geek said helpfully.
"I mean, what are they? Where are they from?"
"Oh. Those are Tues."
"And you bet on them? I mean, I've heard of midget wrestling, but this is ridiculous!"