Those are three possible scenarios for Russia, three different fates for her; but whichever it is, the first act of this drama will be the same. Out of apparently nothing a government will arise that will start to dismantle the old system, strictly on the top-down principle, and it will bring those “below” (i.e. civil society) into the political process. This government will not have the legitimacy apparently held by the old authorities, nor will it have the freedom of movement to do as it wishes. Its term in office will be brief, but notwithstanding this it will be faced by the most challenging and important task possible: to make the process of transformation irreversible and to save the country from disaster. Its mission will be accomplished when it forms a government with a new constitutional majority.
Judging by the experience of both Russia and other countries, history has shown that two years is the limit of trust that the people will give to democratic forces that begin a reform programme. After that, cracks start to appear, which is only to be expected. At that point, power has to be transferred to a newly-elected government (which rarely will have good relations with its predecessor), or the authorities can try to hold onto power with the help of “revolutionary violence”, overcoming opposition from the population who will now be even more firmly against the reforms.
The second option is what happens most often; but if that path is taken then the government will likely be forced to bid farewell to any plans it had for democracy and leave them until history’s next big event. This is exactly what happened in Russia in 1993, just two years after the overwhelming democratic revolution. Russia received its new Constitution on the back of the tanks which shot up the first parliament of the new Russia. This underlines that, however difficult it might be, it is vital to ensure that the first steps to reform are carried out in those first two years.
So the temporary, democratic government that comes to power after the Putin regime is over will have an historic mission. It will have to re-launch democratic processes in Russia and lay the foundations for a permanent constitutional government; one that is legally elected. The problem, however, is that it will have to carry out this mission in the most extreme circumstances. One of the greatest challenges of a transitional period after any lengthy authoritarian rule is that it is virtually impossible to avoid the economy – and politics in general – going into a nosedive. Thus, another mission for the transitional government (and one that is equally important) is not to allow society to descend into chaos.
We can be almost certain that no temporary government would be able to create the conditions for high standards of democracy. Furthermore, in the initial stages it is highly likely that they would have to abolish the old, ornamental, institutions, such as the State Duma and the Federation Council. A particularly tricky question will be what to do with the courts. Here, contradictions arise between, firstly, the irremovable and the independent; secondly, the need to carry out a radical purge of the corrupt personnel of the old regime; and, thirdly, between the rights of criminals, suspects and victims. At the same time, the government must maintain a course of democratisation, not allowing for any temporary restrictions to become permanent; ensuring that a Constituent Assembly is called and carries out real work; that a new Constitution is adopted; and that free and fair elections are held.
What sort of government will be needed to make progress along these various paths? In an ideal world, it would be a government of national unity, that included representatives of various political forces and was based on a consensus with civil society. Something along the lines of a “Coordinated Opposition Council” that had been granted power. However, in real life such an ideal is virtually impossible to achieve. Initially, when the movement begins there simply won’t be a readily-formed political force in the country that can be relied on and that genuinely reflects civil society. In its place, we have a plethora of political groups whose aims aren’t clear and whose legitimacy is dubious. Then even if there were someone who wanted to bring together such a political kaleidoscope as the foundation for a temporary government, nothing would come of it (as we saw with the “coordinated council” that was formed in 2012). Finally, whoever it was that took power at the start would have to be highly motivated in order to invite others to share power. So far, no one in Russia has been magnanimous enough to do that. It would be extraordinary to expect that to happen in the future.
Therefore, it’s highly unlikely that a temporary government made up of a coalition of the revolutionary forces could be formed that would represent a significant segment of civil society – however much we might wish for this to happen. It’s far more likely that power will lie in the hands of a single political force: it’ll be either the reformers from above, or the revolutionaries from below. And neither time, nor a simple desire will be able to break such a force.
In its turn, this will seriously increase the risk that the temporary dictatorship of this revolution will become a long-term project. So what can be done to prevent the process of building a democracy from stalling, and to strengthen it with a constitution?
Common sense suggests that in order to do this you need some kind of balance of forces so as to keep tabs on the work of the temporary government. But where can you find such a balance? Nearly all of the ornamental representative institutions of the old authorities have been discredited or are simply worn out. What’s more, when the revolutionary changes begin, their members will on the whole be against the revolution and thus not in a position to give any help at all. And it’s likely that given their current state it will be necessary to suspend the State Duma and the Federation Council. But it will be impossible to hold elections quickly for the new representative bodies. This will take months, at least, during which time every day will be precious.
However strange it may seem, it’s the present regime that has given us a possible solution. In the rush to guarantee their leader his permanent place in power, among other things they created a quasi-representative body, the State Council, and even gave it legal standing via the Constitution. The purpose of this organisation was to put the brakes on any changes. But if we were to change the personnel there, selecting people according to different principles, this counter-revolutionary organisation would become a revolutionary one.
In practice, the State Council could be reformed if the temporary government immediately filled it with representatives of civil society and the regions. For the transitional period it could be the political centre that keeps the authorities in check, and it could become the temporary emergency legal body and the controlling organisation of the temporary government. Furthermore, it would allow for a certain constitutional continuity between the old authorities and the new. The State Council could issue temporary decrees that would lay the normative and legal foundation for the work of the government in the period of transition.
The principles on which the State Council will be formed is the subject of a lengthy, separate discussion, that can really be had only when the general outlines of the transition will be known. But there can be no doubt about one thing: if the transition will be carried out strictly, then the only legitimate foundation for the formation of the State Council will be regional representation, since the legitimacy of all the other institutions of power will be in doubt. In this case, the State Council will be formed by the regional commissioners, probably elected or appointed by the local legal assemblies. It will also be clear that for the State Council to work effectively, it should be a compact governing body, operating on a permanent basis.