Finally, at the age of 70, Morris had innovated. Vevo took over thirty years of creative output from more than 10,000 artists that had been written off as promotional cost and transformed it into a high-growth profit center. It became YouTube’s most popular channel, and the criticism of Morris began to die down.
The growth of syndicated advertising revenues mirrored other changes within the music industry. Economists had long theorized that the entertainment budget of the average consumer was relatively stable, so that as one source of entertainment spending declined, another grew. Trends in the market for live music seemed to confirm this hypothesis. Even as they abandoned the album, fans started arriving in droves to large-scale integrated music festivals. Headlined by a diverse variety of popular acts, Bonnaroo, Coachella, and the rest of the festival circuit presaged a kind of permanent Woodstock, and from 1999 to 2009 concert ticket sales in North America more than tripled. Many musicians began to earn more from touring than recording.
At the same time, increased demand from advertisers and sample-driven music producers led to a period of spectacular growth in the music publishing business. This licensing business had historically been kept separate from album sales, as the income went to songwriters and copyright-holders rather than performers specifically. For a long time publishing had been regarded as a “boring” business, but a dramatic shift in power had occurred over the previous two decades, one highlighted after the death of Michael Jackson in 2009. Twenty-five years earlier, fresh and gleaming off the success of Thriller, Jackson had famously snatched the publishing rights to the majority of the Beatles catalog away from Paul McCartney with an unprecedented $47 million bid. He’d paid a steep premium—McCartney was hardly hurting for money, and the Beatles were hardly lacking in popularity—but it turned out to be a terrific investment. Over the next 25 years the asset value of the Beatles catalog would appreciate more than twenty times, even as it paid out enormous sums in unrestricted cash. The catalog outpaced returns of the U.S. stock market by a 3-to-1 margin, while during the same period the purchasing power of a dollar decreased by more than 60 percent. Shortly after Jackson’s death, his share of the Beatles catalog was estimated to be worth more than a billion dollars.
In response to these shifts, music executives began pushing artists to sign “360” deals that guaranteed labels not just a portion of album sales but live music and publishing rights as well. These deals brought pushback from artists and their managers, who complained about labels going after revenues that had not, historically speaking, been theirs. While 360 deals were controversial, artists still seemed to need labels, even in the digital era, and many, sometimes against their better judgment, signed on.
And that was the state of the industry in mid-2010, when, after a 47-year career in the music industry, Morris finally prepared to step aside. Privately he grumbled about the mandated transfer of power, but in public Morris did the best he could to put a good face on things. His decade at Vivendi had been tumultuous, perhaps from some perspectives even catastrophic, but he could say this much: in ten years of declining revenues and massive layoffs and economic upheaval, not once had Universal ever had a losing year. In fact, Morris’ aggregate return on invested capital during the first decade of the 2000s was splendid, and when you added it all up, B still looked a lot better than A. No one at the other major labels could say the same.
Perhaps it was for this reason that, as word began to spread of his upcoming force-out, Steve Jobs began to call more frequently. Soon there was an offer on the table. Leave Vivendi, said Jobs. Come to Apple. We’ll start our own iTunes imprint. We’ll go after artists aggressively, and you’ll run the greatest music label the world has ever seen.
Jobs was looking to rewrite the economics of the business from a blank slate. Historically, recording industry deals were determined by major labels bidding against one another for the right to represent the artists. They did this by offering advances against future album royalties, and the label to offer the highest advance usually retained the artist. After the album was recorded and sold, the initial advance was then “recouped” from future royalties, and over time the money was paid back. Under this system, artists earned surprisingly low percentages of their overall album sales—for a first-time artist, this number could be as little as 8 percent. At this rate, it would often take artists years to recoup their advances, and most musicians never earned them back at all.
This was the reason that musicians sometimes complained about “never seeing a cent” in royalty payments. From the labels’ perspective, though, it looked like the artists had been advanced massive royalty checks on albums that had flopped. The advances market encouraged risk taking, and that was the secret reason for the small cut of royalties most artists got paid. Because the biggest cost at any label wasn’t pressing, or distribution, or marketing—in fact, the biggest cost didn’t appear anywhere in artists’ contracts at all. It was the cost of failure: the cost the winners bore to support the larger group of artists the labels went after who would never succeed. For the labels, the advances were a way to pool risk at the artists’ expense.
But to Jobs this approach looked obsolete. He didn’t think the labels had to invest so much money in risky music ventures, and he believed the artists wanted a greater stake in the overall pie. His proposed iTunes music label would offer artists nothing—no advance—in exchange for a royalty split of 50 percent that would start paying out from the first day. The economics would be transparent, and totally fair, and no one would be asked to subsidize anyone else.
It was a daring proposal, and for Morris, one that was the ultimate rebuff to his critics. If he was such a clueless technophobe, why did the most celebrated innovator of his time keep trying to hire him? But at the same time Morris knew it was a proposal he couldn’t accept. For one thing, he disagreed with Jobs. He thought that for a lot of artists—particularly artists at the beginning of their careers—a large advance check was a rite of passage, and a signal of confidence, and that without this carrot to dangle Apple would be unable to meaningfully compete for new acts. Despite their occasional complaining, he suspected that the musicians were just as happy with the current arrangement of high advances and low royalty percentages as the labels.
This strategic disagreement was overshadowed by a more pressing concern: Jobs was dying. His face had grown gaunt; his voice had gone raspy; his body was unbearably thin. After a long period of remission, his pancreatic cancer had returned, and metastasized. As tempting as the Apple offer sounded, Morris didn’t dare sign on. While he liked Jobs as a person, he feared that enthusiasm for an in-house music label at Apple was unlikely to survive the passing of the company’s charismatic founder. After some discussion, he politely rejected the offer.
But Jobs wasn’t the only one looking to upend traditional music business economics. Around this time, Shawn Carter—Jay-Z—showed up at Morris’ offices in New York looking to get out of his own advance. Morris had long ago signed a multi-album deal with Carter that gave him an exclusive option on all of his future work. Now Carter was proposing to buy his way out of this deal and retain 100 percent of his royalties for his next album, The Blueprint 3.