"Foot-and-mouth disease has been diagnosed in cattle in a pre-experimental animal holding facility at the Plum Island Animal Disease Center," began the press release. The first line of the release was word-smithing at its best, patently unintelligible to people unacquainted with the science. But lines like "Authorities do not consider this a threat…" and "This is the first infection to occur outside the high-security laboratory…" and "It rarely affects humans. However, the disease could cause economic disaster…" made the reality slowly begin to register with weekend desk editors. Weekend or not, this was a major story to be covered.
In 1971, the USDA had total confidence its exotic virus laboratory, boasting,
Plum Island is considered the safest in the world on virus diseases. As proof of this statement, there has never been a disease outbreak among the susceptible animals maintained outside the laboratory on the island since it was established.
Now, sorting through the hazily written press release, the message became clear: "The World's Safest Lab" had failed.
By Sunday, Newsday had no less than four reporters on the case, phoning all over Plum Island and hunting the mainland for leads. The paper ran three successive stories that first week with increasingly ominous banners: U.S. TRACKING PLUM I. VISITORS, SOURCE OF PLUM ISLAND GERM LEAK SOUGHT, AND EXPERTS PROBE ANIMAL DISEASE.
When the fourth Newsday story was published in as many days, the sputtering Plum Island spin machine kicked into gear. Laboratory chief Dr. Charles Campbell told a reporter, "I believe all the people here feel we've contained the disease." Applying blame, he postulated that violations of the biological safety procedures by construction workers caused the outbreak. Rumors that migratory fowl like ducks, Canadian geese, osprey, and seagulls were dying were flatly denied, and no one came forward with evidence of any birds killed. Was there a possibility of sabotage by a visitor? A trespasser? A disgruntled worker? "One or two people have mentioned that possibility," said Campbell. "It's conceivable, but we feel it's highly unlikely." What began to alarm people most wasn't the fear of being attacked by foot-and-mouth disease virus, but by other germs from Plum Island. Was this an isolated incident?
THE VIRUS HUNTERS
One federal outfit that took the outbreak seriously was the Emergency Disease Organization (EDO), based out of Washington, D.C. By close of business Friday, the USDA swung EDO into action. The next day, Dr. Stanley Newcomb and his eight-person team descended upon Riverhead, Long Island, and set up a crisis command center at a local motel. The team conferred on the epidemiology of the virus — the how and where of an epidemic. If a germ outbreak's evidence reveals how it occurred, then scientists can trace its path and guess where it might lead.
The team studied what little evidence was available. Less than a full day after discovery, it was too early to determine the specific cause of the outbreak. To the epidemiologists, speculating was wasting valuable time. Instead, Dr. Newcombe and the team shifted from determining the what to examining the how. They ventured three guesses. The virus could have "(1) escaped from the high security research building on Plum Island to the quarantine area; or (2) been introduced onto Plum Island from elsewhere, off the island," and in either case, "(3) been carried from Plum Island to susceptible animals on Long Island and elsewhere."
Looking through the records of the two laboratory buildings, they first determined that Type-O virus was being worked on. Lab 257 hadn't worked on it for months, but three of Lab 101's four lab modules were studying it. So the virus likely originated on the island, and Lab 101 was likely the culprit. Then they addressed what could easily transfer virus to the mainland: humans, deer, and air. Like mosquitoes carry West Nile virus and ticks carry Lyme disease, people can carry millions of germs on their skin, in their hair, even inside their mouths. When a reporter asked Dr. Newcombe about deer that swam from Plum Island to Long Island, he replied that herds of deer could be infected, but the urban setting of Queens (which is really western Long Island) formed a natural barrier where there were few, if any susceptible animals. Still, that left all of Long Island in the virus's path. There was also the question of airborne transmission. Some argued the virus lasted only a few hours in the open air. But Dr. Callis believed the virus could travel long distances by "hitchhiking on air particles."[26]
First, the team put the Plum Island employees aside. They were low risk because they followed systematic decontamination procedures every day and knew what to regularly avoid on the mainland. Then, from the visitor logs and contractor's employee manifest, they compiled a list of non-employees who'd had contact with Plum Island in the last sixty days. All were potential vectors. Of the 103 people they pinpointed, all resided within the New York City metropolitan area; other than the Frenchman in Dr. Carol House's 257 lab room, there had been no visiting foreign scientists or students.
The immediate priority was to get to the seventy-seven construction workers. They posed the highest risk because they didn't know a thing about infectious disease. Their actions over the next few days could spread the virus far and wide, resulting in monumental disaster. Each team member worked the phones from the command center asking questions. "Have you been near or at any animal farms? Stockyards? Packinghouses? Sale barns?" None of the urban hard-hats had. Some of the questions even prompted chuckles and snorts. "Do you keep any cows, goats, or pigs at home?" Other questions were more alarming. "Have you sent or received any packages or had any contact with people from a foreign country?" And some hit closer to home. "Have you been to any pet stores that had birds? How about any state fairs? Have you been to the Bronx Zoo? Any other zoos or amusement parks with those drive-through animal kingdoms? Have you traveled out of the New York metropolitan region? Where exactly did you go and what did you do there?" The replies brought good news. There had been a few family excursions within the suburbs and one visit to a pet store, but no potentially dangerous biological contacts. Spot checks at their homes confirmed they owned no livestock animals.
Scientists traveled in pairs to each known animal farm in the region: seven dairy herds totaling nine hundred milk cows. Standing at a healthy distance, the medical officers observed the animals for signs of disease, then sprayed themselves down with disinfectant, changed clothes, and proceeded to the next farm. There was real concern about the Long Island Game Farm, a three-hundred-acre zoo in nearby Manorville. This popular children's zoo made an ideal breeding ground because it was home to many susceptible animals, including ring-tailed lemurs, buffalo, squirrel monkeys, cows, cougars, horses, giraffe, sheep, zebra, and ostriches. If the virus existed on the mainland, then it probably would have turned up here. Sighs of relief overcame the medical inspection team when the game farm received a clean bill of health.
Within six days, EDO completed its germ hunt. Dr. Newcombe filed his report with the best analysis he could render. Most scientists refuse to render absolute conclusions (the possibilities, after all, fuel the discipline of science). Dr. Newcombe was no different. "Transmission to susceptible animals off of Plum Island is improbable, although not impossible…it would appear equally improbable that the outbreak on Plum Island resulted from virus introduced from off the island." He told a reporter, "Our faces are red, but we don't think it got off the island." This disease is not normally contracted by humans, he said. "That's not true of all animal diseases, but it is true of this one." The virus was one of over twenty-five pathogens regularly studied on Plum Island. Why was it the only one being traced by the virus hunters?
26
Later, the "Yellow Winds" of China would be blamed for an outbreak of virus that traveled clear across the Yellow Sea to Japan in early 2000.