Sharon could only guess what Boris was thinking. She had information he did not have. That meant that the CIS or Russian government — Dvornikov had high-level contacts in both places and probably in many other government houses as well — probably didn’t know it, either. But that also meant that REDTAIL HAWK, the new code name of the Air Force officer inside the Fisikous Institute, most likely wasn’t under the control of the Commonwealth or Russian government. Whoever had REDTAIL HAWK had him in secret. Bleed the man dry, discard him, and no one, not even the central government, would know about it. She was gambling with REDTAIL HAWK’s life. She knew that. Dvornikov had all he needed to know to find out about the American officer in Fisikous himself, and then he could just walk away. But Dvornikov had called this meeting, not she. Dvornikov wanted something.
Maybe he was willing to trade for it. His government contacts would pay big money for this information, especially if it meant destroying a political foe or helping set up a new political friend. The power struggles in the new regimes created from the shattered Soviet Union were endless.
“What else might you put in my novel?” he finally asked.
“Here’s where the story could start getting interesting,” Greenfield said. “This could be the first novel where the good guys and the bad guys actually help one another.”
“Now this certainly is fiction.”
“Fine. Then make up your own story, Boris,” Greenfield said irritably. “Listen, I’m very busy. Can we—?”
“Not just yet. I asked you here not to discuss novels, but the situation in the Baltic.” He motioned to an insulated pot and two cups, and poured very rich, dark coffee into two china cups. “You see? I’ve even prepared a small libation for us.” He withdrew a silver flask from his coat pocket and offered some to Greenfield, who declined. It was an interesting gesture, since Sharon knew that Dvornikov disliked alcohol except as a policy-making tool directed against others. This had to be part of the act. Of course he knew that she would refuse a drink, so Dvornikov could have just plain water in that hip flask. Or maybe things here in Moscow were driving him to drink…
“As you know, Sharon, my country imports much food, dairy products, eggs, and other such necessities from our former Baltic republics as well as from other former Soviet states. We would like to keep this arrangement in operation, as distasteful as it is to many former Soviet bureaucrats who dislike paying huge sums of hard currency to a former republic. But there appears to be a move afoot to perhaps reunite one or more of the Baltic republics with its parent republic.”
“Reunite? You mean one of the Commonwealth states might invade the Baltic states?”
“There appears to be strong historical precedent for a… reunion to take place between certain Commonwealth and Baltic states,” Dvornikov Said warily. “All of the Baltic states once belonged to Russia, even before the advent of the Soviet Union; and other states, such as Byelorussia and the Ukraine, were closely allied to the Baltics. But history lesson aside, what might be the American response?”
“You know damned well what the response would be, Dvornikov,” Greenfield replied, dropping all politeness despite herself. “The United States has always stood in defense of any country whose government is freely elected by the people and that operates under a set legal standard.”
“But, dear, you have also propped up dictatorships and oppressive governments: Marcos, Noriega, Pinochet, the Shah; shall I go on?”
“Let’s stick to the Baltics, Dvornikov,” Greenfield said testily. “They’re as independent as the United States or Ireland or the United Kingdom. If one or more of them asked the United States for support, the President would be inclined to give it.”
“Military support? Your president would go to war against the Commonwealth to protect the Baltics?”
“Yes,” Greenfield replied firmly. “The President may have slashed the U.S. military budget by one-third and closed a hundred military bases in three months, but he knows his role as leader of the free world. Yes, he would commit troops to Europe to back the Baltics.”
“Even if it meant a nuclear confrontation?”
“Nuclear confrontation?” Greenfield’s eyes registered her surprise. “Russia would risk a nuclear war to occupy the Baltics?”
“That was a very amateurish diversion, Sharon,” Dvornikov said with a smile — obviously he enjoyed verbal jousting as much as Greenfield hated it. “I never said Russia wanted to invade the Baltics.”
Greenfield was seething. “Look, can I be blunt? Let’s cut the shit. If you really called me here to play political mind-games, then it’s time I left. An attack on the Baltics could re-ignite the Cold War and erase all the gains that have been made over the years.”
“Sharon…” Dvornikov sighed, lost in thought. “What the West sees as gains are seen by many in the former Soviet Union as losses. Some say that all perestroika has resulted in is confusion and uncertainty.”
“Your current political and economic mess is a result of decades of mismanagement in the communist government, not of democracy and peace,” Greenfield said. “Attacking the Baltics — which are now as free and independent as any other country in the world, despite your so-called historical precedent — is a serious act of aggression. The United States will respond as such.”
“Sharon, there are immense pressures on the Commonwealth and the Russian government to do something about the current state of affairs. Citizens are starving on a massive scale. There is unrest everywhere. Deep factions are developing in the central government. The peace of the entire world may be threatened if a military junta is successful or even attempted in Russia. If the Commonwealth breaks apart and Russia becomes a military dictatorship, the whole world will be affected.”
“So what do you want the United States to do about it?” Greenfield asked. “You’ve spurned all attempts to reform your government and your society. Your government leaders can’t stand the thought of some successful private-venture sausage-stuffer wielding more political power and becoming wealthier than they.”
“I tell you, Sharon Greenfield, some government leaders will be forced to act just to hold on to their lives — not just their political life, their earthly life,” Dvornikov said seriously.
“What will the Commonwealth do if one of the member republics invades the Baltic states?” Greenfield asked.
“What can they do? What power do they have?”
“What power? The Commonwealth has a three-million-man army, two-thirds of which are in the western half.”
“And many of the member republics have nuclear weapons,” Dvornikov said. “They were supposed to be deactivated or sent back to Russia, and most of the intercontinental weapons were deactivated, but most of the tactical and battlefield weapons were not. At worst, a nuclear confrontation between Commonwealth states is very likely if one state acts independently of the others. But more likely, the Commonwealth might endorse an invasion of the Baltics in order to prop up its own government. Either way, a nuclear conflict is possible — very possible — if the West gets itself involved. This is not like Iraq and the Persian Gulf War, Sharon Greenfield — the nuclear weapons, and the resolve to use them, truly exist here.” Dvornikov stepped closer to Sharon and said, “The United States must not act if there is an invasion of the Baltic states.”
Well, there you go, Sharon thought. He’s put it on the table. “Is this how it sounded in the conversation between Hitler and Stalin in 1939? ‘In exchange for peace and solidarity, you can take Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania; I will take Czechoslovakia and Hungary…’”