“Supposing, of course, it is Russian,” said Regis. “It could conceivably be French or Indian.”
The admiral replied, “Every one of the Indian and French nuclear subs is accounted for. There is absolutely no question these two countries would sell to another nation without ours and the Americans’ prior knowledge and agreement. They are our firm allies. The Chinese are a possibility; they have three currently – all brand new. However, I would guess it unlikely that China would give one to a poor neighbour. Relationships between the two are not what you would call cordial right now.”
Engels excused himself and left the room to return a short while later.
“Apart from Seoul, none of our stations report the sale or loss of a nuclear sub by any of the nations you have mentioned,” said Sir Jeffery to both the foreign and defence ministers.
A brief silence.
“Assuming the sub is now in terrorist hands, would a Russian crew be retained?” the PM asked.
“Good point,” said Trafford. “We have to assume at this stage the crew will remain Russian, maybe assisted by Muslims. It will make it more difficult to hunt down; they know their subs well, but if a Russian crew is short of what it should be, that will test efficiency for sure.”
“Assuming, of course, that they have not been totally replaced by a Korean or Muslim crew,” the PM chimed.
“We know selected Iranian and North Korean naval personnel have been involved in Chinese and French nuclear sub training programmes. I doubt the Koreans could man a Delta, but it’s possible that fundamentalist Iranians could form a crew,” said the admiral.
“Anything from ROI or SOSUS?” Trafford asked.
“The last report displayed nothing outside the normal traffic, but I’ll check again and contact the Americans too.”
“ROI, SOSUS?” questioned the PM, staring at the admiral.
“Radar Ocean Imaging, sir. Radar on satellites able to detect subs underwater by the subtle changes of the waves over its path. SOSUS is the U.S. underwater global Sound Surveillance System used in antisubmarine warfare.”
The PM gave Engels a sheepish look. “What about our own Skysight satellites?”
“The Far East has yet to be covered,” Engels replied.
Silence descended again. Prime Minister Maxwell leaned forward, placing both his elbows on the table, seemingly deep in thought. Then, after several seconds, he glanced around the seated figures.
“Could she be fully armed?” he asked quietly.
“Our stats tell us she’s capable of carrying a dozen torpedoes, and sixteen Stingrays,” Engels replied.
“If fitted with MIRV warheads, each with three 200 kilotons apiece, only a few would be needed to potentially wipe out our island,” said Regis.
“Only if she got close enough to release them,” countered Engels.
“How close is close in your opinion, admiral?” the PM asked.
“Anywhere around one hundred miles. We would need most of the entire navy to patrol our coastline and the approaches. We certainly can’t do that without seriously affecting current commitments.”
“Then we have no choice but to make sure we stop the Delta before it gets here,” said the PM firmly. “In the meantime we’ll put all our land-based anti-missile installations on full alert and put as many ships as we can sensibly muster to patrol the south and west approaches. Are we all agreed?”
The group nodded.
The PM turned to the admiral. “This sub may now be carrying missiles with nuclear or bio-warheads. What are your thoughts on how warheads could’ve been obtained and fitted?”
Engels cleared his throat. “If not supplied with the boat, only two ways really – either at sea or in a Korean naval dockyard. If at sea, she would obviously have to surface to take on board the warheads from a topside vessel and stay there until they were fitted. If this was undertaken anywhere in the western Pacific she would be exposed to the sats. The better way would be to head for a remote part of the Pacific, or even the Atlantic, not covered, and do the transfer there. As for the dockyards, the U.S. has all the North and South Korean naval yards covered. It would be difficult to make the transfer without them knowing.”
“Even under cover of heavy clouds and darkness?” questioned Trafford.
“Not a problem with the latest cloud penetration satellites and infra-reds.”
“Does anyone disagree or have anything to add to Admiral Engels’s assessment?” the PM asked.
A shaking of heads.
“Okay, let’s recap the facts,” he continued. “Intel strongly suggests a missile strike against the West by al-Qaeda is imminent using either nuclear or biological warheads. The attack will be by a Russian Delta sub purchased by the North Koreans on behalf of terrorists using a Russian crew, possibly aided by Muslim extremists. It also suggests the Koreans have provided the warheads.” He paused. “So, gentlemen, we have to locate and disable that sub in a real hurry. How do we go about this?” He looked at the admiral.
“Assuming a Delta left Rybachiy, it would need to take a route down through the Pacific, across the Indian Ocean and up into the Atlantic to make sure it kept to the more remote regions of those oceans. To go the other routes it would have to either negotiate the choke points at Drake Passage between Cape Horn and Antarctica or the GIUK gap between Greenland and Norway. Both those approaches would be expected to be crawling with allied ships.
“My thoughts are that we should leave it to the Americans to monitor the northwestern and central Pacific and bring back what we can to protect our shores. The Americans already have Battle Groups in the south Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the North and South Atlantic augmented by attack submarines. We should send an A-Class to patrol the lower latitudes of these oceans. With your approval, sir, we can implement this immediately.”
“Do the rest of you concur?” asked the PM.
Nods of agreement.
The PM shifted in his seat, eyeing those around the table.
“Okay, send the subs.” His voice held a slight tremor. “You are to make the hunting down and disabling of this rogue sub a top priority. The consequences of unleashing a missile carrying a nuclear or bio-warhead onto our shores would be nothing less than devastating; life as we know it would end. So, I’ll put it bluntly: nail it! Reputations are on the line here; make sure there are no cock-ups. Is that clear?”
Again, nods.
Trafford looked at Admiral Engels. “Have the navy conduct sweeping searches in the Sea of Japan, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, moving to the South China Sea and then on out into the Pacific if necessary. I also recommend all shipping in and out of Korean ports, both North and South, be boarded, searched and strictly monitored right to their final destinations. We should inform the Americans and seek their help – they could also be the target. They can threaten the Koreans with retaliation and if the sub is still in their hands, it may deter them from following through. We face a very dangerous situation here; we should act immediately.”
The British Prime Minister leaned back in his chair, steepled his fingers and placed them to his lips. For several seconds he stared fixedly at portraits on the opposite wall.
“Do we all agree?” he asked finally.
Each nodded.
The PM turned to the foreign secretary. “David?”