During the first two years of President Stein’s time in office, America had increased its oil production by over 100 % and brought the price of oil down dramatically, to below $150 a barrel. All ten refineries were under reconstruction and expected to be finished over the next four years. Sixty new natural gas plants and twenty nuclear power plants were under construction as well. The decommissioning of the dirtiest power plants was also well under way.
Five new solar farms (covering 20,000 acres of land each) had been built in the southwest, lowering the price of energy. The refinement of ethanol from corn, sugarcane, potatoes, rice and wheat had increased to 3 million barrels a day and was on pace to hit 8 million barrels a day within the next three years as more arable land was being sown.
Despite the global economy improving, the situation in Russia was continuing to become unstable near their borders. The secessionist movements in Chechnya and Dagestan, along with the continued unrest in the “Stan” countries, were causing immense civil unrest across the various federated provinces. China’s never-ending thirst for natural gas and oil, along with the free trade with Russia, was one of the few bright spots for Russia. Several high speed rail networks had been built linking western Russia with greater China, and were starting to pay dividends for both countries as trade and economic activity increased. Of course, the issues between Western Ukraine and Russia were also causing their own complications.
The Russian President, Viktor Zubkov, was using the civil unrest as an excuse to strengthen his control on the country and continue his modernization of the military. Military technology had changed a lot over the last 20 years; the use of unmanned aerial drones as fighters and ground attack drones had moved from science fiction to a new reality in modern warfare. Many countries had caught up to the US in drone technology. The use of drones had even made its way into light armored vehicles and tanks, changing the way future wars would be fought forever.
Western Ukraine had joined NATO, and believed that this membership would allow them to get away with being more provocative with the Russians after their absorption of East Ukraine. Leveraging NATO as a shield, Western Ukraine began to syphon off natural gas and fuel shipments being sent to the rest of Europe. The situation was starting to spiral out of control as this action started to decrease the profits of Gazprom, and thus, the Russian Federation.
NATO, as an organization, had continued to decline in relevance and capability throughout the 2010s and into the 2020s. In the early 2030s, during the de Blasio administration, America continued to maintain the NATO headquarters in Brussels but had scaled down the military presence in Europe. By the mid-2030s, the US maintained less than 10,000 military personnel on continental Europe. NATO had become more of a European peacekeeping force than a real defensive deterrent against future Russian or Islamic Republic aggression.
Russia, on the other hand, continued to rebuild its military and began positioning more forces along their Ukrainian border and their secessionist provinces. Insurgent groups in the Caucuses were operating out of the Republic of Georgia and Azerbaijan, making it more difficult to conduct counter insurgency operations without involving either of those countries.
“Mr. President, Secretary Wise just arrived,” announced Julie Wells, the President’s personal secretary. Ms. Wells was in a rather unique position since she had also been the previous President’s personal secretary. A new president typically would bring his own secretary into the White House; President Stein had chosen to keep Julie because she was likeable and very proficient at her job (in spite of her not voting for him).
“Excellent, Julie. Please have him brought in as soon as possible and inform the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and the National Security Advisor as well. Please have coffee brought in too…. this is going to be a long meeting.”
“Yes, Mr. President.”
The Secretary of State (a man who had been the head of the Kennedy School of International Studies at Harvard and had previously been an Ambassador to the European Union) walked in to the room. President Stein walked over and warmly shook his hand. “Jim, it’s good to see you again. Please, come sit down; I understand we have a lot to talk about today.”
Mr. Wise did not mince words and cut to the point. “Unfortunately, Mr. President, we only have bad news and more bad news to talk about.”
As soon as he finished his sentence, the National Security Advisor, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and the Secretary of Defense walked in and solemnly took their seats around the coffee table.
The President took his cue from their countenances and decided to skip any further niceties and get straight to business. “Gentlemen, we’ve called this meeting because it appears that situations in Russia may be getting worse, and the news coming from Iran and the Islamic Republic is not much better.”
“Mr. President,” interjected the National Security Advisor Mike Williams, “—Sir, the situation in the Middle East…I believe it is a bit more pressing; our latest intelligence indicates that there is going to be a major announcement coming out of the Islamic Republic in the next couple of days…an announcement that will most certainly change the way we will have to deal with the Middle East.”
“What now?” thought the President.
“Mike, please go ahead and tell us what your sources have discovered; I have a feeling I know what it is, but the others should know.” Mike did not know the President personally before his term in office; he had retired from the DIA Human Intelligence branch as a senior collector specializing in Middle East affairs. However, the two men had quickly formed a bond, and sometimes it was almost as if Stein could literally read Mike’s mind.
“Yes, Mr. President,” responded Mike. “As you all know, there has been some talk about a possible unification of additional Middle Eastern and North African countries into the Caliphate, the Islamic Republic. Unfortunately, these rumors appear to be true, and in the next couple of weeks we expect an announcement is going to be made with the countries of North and South Sudan, Mauritania, Mali and Somalia all joining the IR. It would also appear that the IR, backed by their Russian and Chinese friends, is going to make a play for Iran.” Grumbling could be heard from the other officials as they began to digest this information.
Mike cleared his throat and said, “The situation gets worse. The countries of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Yemen, Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, and to our dismay, Indonesia, will all likely become a part of this new Caliphate.”
The President interjected, “Mike, can you please explain how the IR is going to acquire Iran, since they are a mostly Shia country?”
Mike pulled out his tablet and zoomed into an area of Iran annotated with markings indicating oil and gas fields. “The Chinese are going to acquire a 100 year lease on these oil and natural gas fields in exchange for their help with the coup. The Russians are going to gain the port of Bandar Abbas to establish a new naval and airbase. The Chinese will also gain the port of Chabahar, giving them an additional forward naval and airbase.”
“To ensure the military does not actively resist, the Russians, Chinese and IR are paying nearly $20 billion in bribes all across the government to key individuals, especially within the IRGC. Their goal is to make this coup and take over as bloodlessly as possible, and it looks like it will succeed,” said Mike, clearly in awe of the complexity and reality of the deal.