Menzel, apparently realizing the flaws in his theory, offered the possibility that a high layer of fog, haze or dust just above or just below Arnold's altitude might account for the sighting. Menzel claimed that these layers could reflect the sun in almost mirror-like fashion.
Again the explanation fails, if only because Arnold saw movement and that would require some sort of turbulence at altitude. Arnold had remarked about how stable the air was. A perfect day for flying with no real winds, or turbulence, and unlimited visibility.
Menzel, in his book with Lyle G. Boyd, The World of Flying Saucers, wrote that Arnold may have seen orographic clouds. These are huge, circular-shaped clouds that can form on the downwind side of mountains. But, as Menzel himself noted, they stand still and are not particularly reflective. In other words, Menzel, after suggesting the clouds, then eliminates them himself.
In the book The UFO Enigma, published after his death, and co-authored with Ernest H. Taves, Menzel suggested that Arnold may have been fooled by drops of water on the cockpit windows. He wrote, "I cannot, of course, say definitely that what Arnold saw were merely raindrops on the windows of his plane. He would doubtless insist that there was no rain at the altitude at which he was flying. But many queer things happen at different levels in the earth's atmosphere."
But remember what Arnold said about those who had suggested mirages?"… as I observed these objects not only through the glass of my airplane but turned my airplane sideways where I could open my window and observe them with a completely unobstructed view." If the object had been water drops on the windows, they would have disappeared when he opened the window for his unobstructed view.
So, the real problem with this report seems to be that Arnold may have underestimated the size of the objects or overestimated the distance to them. These are not fatal flaws. And they are not reason enough to throw out the report. Arnold was, after all, a pilot who had flown in the area before. He was familiar with what the terrain looked like. Instead of nitpicking Arnold's estimates of distance and size of the objects, or inventing multiple explanations that are contradicted by the facts, the military investigators should have been looking for corroboration of the case. Had they looked, they would have found it.
Just about the time that Arnold lost sight of the objects, Fred Johnson, listed as a prospector, reported watching five or six disk-shaped craft as they flew over the Cascade Mountains. He said they were round with a slight tail and about thirty feet in diameter. They were not flying in any sort of formation and as they banked in a turn, the sunlight flashed off them. As they approached, Johnson noticed that his compass began to spin wildly. When the objects finally vanished in the distance, the compass returned to normal.
After learning of the Arnold sighting, Johnson wrote to the Air Force on August 20, 1947, saying, "Saw in the portland (sic) paper a short time ago in regards to an article in regards to the so called flying disc having any basis in fact. I can say am a prospector and was in the Mt Adams district on June 24th the day Kenneth Arnold of Boise Idaho claims he saw a formation of flying disc (sic). And i saw the same flying objects at about the same time. Having a telescope with me at the time i can asure you there are real and noting like them I ever saw before they did not pass verry high over where I was standing at the time. plolby 1000 ft. they were Round about 30 foot in diameter tapering sharply to a point in the head and in an oval shape. with a bright top surface. I did not hear any noise as you would from a plane. But there was an object in the tail end looked like a big hand of a clock shifting from side to side like a big magnet. There speed was far as i know seemed to be greater than anything I ever saw. Last view I got of the objects they were standing on edge Banking in a cloud." It is signed, "Yours Respectfully, Fred Johnson."
The Army Air Forces had asked the FBI to interview some of those seeing flying disks. Johnson was one of those interviewed. The FBI report contained essentially the same information as the letter that Johnson had sent to the Army. The FBI report ended, saying, "Informant appeared to be a very reliable individual who advised that he had been a prospector in the states of Montana, Washington and Oregon for the past forty years."
Dr. Bruce Maccabee, a physicist with the Navy, wrote in the International UFO Reporter published by the Center or UFO Studies, that the Johnson sighting is important, not because it takes place near where Arnold saw the nine objects, but because it seems to be an extension of the Arnold sighting. It provides independent corroboration for the Arnold sighting, strengthening that case, and reducing, to ridiculous, some of the explanations that have been offered to explain it.
Menzel, the Harvard scientist, decided that Johnson was being honest in his report, that is, Johnson was not lying about it. He was merely mistaken in his analysis of the sighting. Menzel wrote that Johnson had probably seen bright reflections from patches of clouds. It didn't seem to matter to Menzel that Johnson saw the objects only about a thousand feet over his head, watched them through a telescope, and had them in sight for almost a minute, before they disappeared by turning toward a cloud.
Johnson's sighting is important for another reason that is noted in the Air Force file. Johnson spoke about his compass behaving oddly as the objects flew overhead. Here is the first example of what would become known as an electromagnetic effect, that is, a type of interaction with the environment. It would suggest that Johnson was seeing something real, rather than something such as bright reflections from patches of clouds.
The AMC Opinion on this case is, "From the limited evidence submitted, it is impossible to reach a definite conclusion. However, two possible psychological factors are readily apparent; one, the observer stated he submitted this report solely because he had read several days following his observation of another sighting. Therefore, he very likely either consciously or inadvertently may have attempted to conform his report to that recounted in the newspaper; and two, he colored his report with interference of huge magnetic fields, as to implications of which he was obviously uninformed."
There is no evidence that Johnson's report was colored by what he read in the newspaper. An equally plausible explanation is that, after seeing the objects, he didn't know where to report it, or even if anyone else would be interested in what he saw. By reading the newspaper, he learned that others had, in fact, seen the objects and there was interest in such reports. And, he now knew of a place to report the sighting.
The Air Force investigators also realized that if Johnson's compass was affected by the objects, it was suggestive of a massive magnetic field. They reasoned that such a field does not exist and therefore the reaction of the compass must have had nothing to do with the sighting of the objects. Of course, if the objects did generate a powerful electromagnetic field, then his compass would have been affected just as he suggested.
What we see in these two cases is the classic divide and conquer strategy used throughout the UFO investigations. Arnold made his report and had no corroborating witnesses. Johnson made his report because of what he had read about Arnold. What the military officers didn't do was link the cases. If they are not linked, they can be dealt with individually. Neither case, by itself, is particularly impressive. They are single witness reports which means they can be interpreted as some sort of individual aberration. But linked, we have not only a multiple witness case but independent observers that include a pilot in the air, an observer on the ground, and a report of electromagnetic effects.
Why should we link the cases? Because, as noted by Maccabee, it seems that just as Arnold lost sight of the objects in the Mount Rainier area, Johnson spotted them overhead. Arnold said that he lost sight of them in the area where Johnson said he first saw them. It seems to be reasonable to believe that the two reports are related.