‘Then why do we believe the contrary?’
‘Either because we’ve worked it out for ourselves or because experts tell us it’s the case.’
‘But why do we believe the experts we believe?’
‘Because we trust them.’
‘Why do we trust them?’
‘Well, I trust Galileo more than the Pope, so I believe the earth goes round the sun.’
‘But we don’t trust Galileo himself, for the simple reason that we’ve none of us read his proof. I’m assuming that’s the case. So who or what we’re trusting is a second level of experts.’
‘Who probably know even more than Galileo.’
‘Here’s a paradox. We all of us read a newspaper, and most of us believe most of what our newspaper tells us. But at the same time every survey says that journalists are generally regarded as untrustworthy. Down there at the bottom with estate agents.’
‘It’s other people’s newspapers that are untrustworthy. Ours are reliable.’
‘Some genius once wrote that any sentence beginning “One in five of us believes or thinks such-and-such” is automatically suspect. And the sentence that is least likely to be true is one beginning “Perhaps as many as one in five…”’
‘Who was this genius?’
‘A journalist.’
‘You know that thing about surveillance cameras? How Britain’s supposed to have more of them per head of population than anywhere else in the world? We all know that, don’t we? So, there was a rebuttal in the paper by a journalist who said it was all hooey and paranoia, and went on to prove it, or try to. But he didn’t prove it to me because he’s one of those journalists I always disagree with anyway. So I refused to believe he could be right about this. And then I wondered if I didn’t believe him because I want to live in a country with the largest amount of surveillance cameras. And then I couldn’t work out whether that was because it made me feel safer, or because I somehow rather enjoyed feeling paranoid.’
‘So where is the point or the line at which reasonable people stop assuming truth and start doubting it?’
‘Isn’t there usually an accumulation of evidence leading to doubt?’
‘Like, the husband is always the first to suspect and the last to know.’
‘Or the wife.’
‘Mutatis mutandis.’
‘In propria persona.’
‘That’s another thing about the British. Well, your kind of British. The Latin you speak.’
‘Do we?’
‘I guess we do. Homo homini lupus.’
‘Et tu, Brute.’
‘And in case you think we’re showing off our education, we aren’t. It’s more despair. We’re probably the last generation to have these phrases at our disposal. They don’t have classical references in the Times crossword any more. Or Shakespeare quotations. When we’re dead, no one will say things like “Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?” any more.’
‘And that’ll be a loss, will it?’
‘I can’t tell if you’re being ironic or not.’
‘Neither can I. ’
‘Who was that British general in some Indian war who captured the province of Sind and sent a one-word telegram back to HQ? It simply said: “Peccavi ”… Ah, a few blank faces. Latin for “I have sinned.”’
‘Personally, I’m extremely glad those days are over.’
‘You’d probably prefer “mission accomplished” or whatever they say.’
‘No, I just hate imperialist jokes about killing people.’
‘Pardon my Latin.’
‘Right. So moving swiftly back to Galileo. The earth going round the sun is something that’s been proved as much as anything can be. But what about, say, climate change?’
‘Well, we all believe in that, don’t we?’
‘Do you remember when Reagan said trees gave off carbon emissions, and people hung signs round the trunks of redwoods saying “Sorry” and “It’s all my fault”?’
‘Or “Peccavi ”.’
‘Indeed.’
‘But Reagan believed anything, didn’t he? Like, he’d liberated some concentration camp in the war when all he’d done was stay in Hollywood and make patriotic films.’
‘Mind you, Bush made Reagan look good – almost classy.’
‘Someone said of Reagan that he was simple but not simple-minded.’
‘That’s not bad.’
‘Yes it is. It’s sophistry, it’s a spin doctor’s formula. Hear it from me: simple is simple-minded.’
‘So we all believe in climate change?’
‘Yes.’
‘Sure.’
‘But do we, for instance, believe that there’s plenty of time for scientists to find a solution, or that we’ve reached a tipping point and in two, five or ten years it’ll be too late, or that we’ve already passed that tipping point and we’re going to hell in a handcart?’
‘The middle one, don’t we? That’s why we all try to reduce our carbon footprint, and insulate our houses better, and recycle.’
‘Is recycling to do with global warming?’
‘Need you ask?’
‘Well, I only ask because we’ve been recycling for twenty years or so, and no one was talking about global warming back then.’
‘I sometimes think, when we’re driving through central London in the evening and see all these office blocks with lights blazing away, that it’s a bit bloody pointless worrying about leaving the telly and the computer on standby.’
‘Every little makes a difference.’
‘But every big makes a bigger difference.’
‘Did you see that terrifying statistic the other month – that something like seventy per cent of passengers on flights in India were first-time fliers using budget airlines?’
‘As they have every right to. We did. We still do, most of us, don’t we?’
‘Are you saying that out of some sense of fair play we have to let everyone else become as filthy and polluting and carbon-emitting as we’ve been, and only then do we have the moral right to suggest they stop it?’
‘I’m not saying that. I’m saying they can hardly be expected to take lessons from us of all people.’
‘Do you know what I think is the most disgusting thing, morally, in the last twenty years or whatever. Emissions trading. Isn’t that a disgusting idea?’
‘All together now…’
‘“It’s the hypocrisy I can’t stand.”’
‘Beasts, all of you. But especially you, Dick.’
‘One thing really annoys me. You sort out all your recycling and put it in separate boxes, and then they come round with the van and throw it in higgledy-piggledy, mixing it all up again.’
‘But if we think we are at the tipping point, what chance do we believe we have of the world agreeing?’
‘Perhaps as much as one chance in five?’
‘Self-interest. That’s what makes things tick. People will recognise it’s in their own interest. And that of subsequent generations.’
‘Subsequent generations don’t vote for today’s politicians.’
‘What has posterity ever done for me, as someone asked.’
‘But politicians know that most voters care about subsequent generations. And most politicians are parents.’
‘I think one problem is that even if we accept self-interest as a useful guiding principle, there’s a gap between what your actual self-interest is and what you perceive it to be.’
‘Also between short- and long-term self-interest.’
‘Wasn’t it Keynes?’
‘Wasn’t what?’
‘Said that thing about posterity.’
‘It’s usually him or Oliver Wendell Holmes or Judge Learned Hand or Nubar Gulbenkian.’
‘I don’t know who or what you’re talking about.’
‘Did you see that French champagne houses are thinking of relocating to England because soon it’ll be too warm for their grapes?’