How to live with Islam?
The Russians are ambiguous, Putin included. He may mourn the loss of those Central Asian treasure houses, but he must also be aware of the fact that, given the chronic demographic implosion among Russians and the demographic explosion among Muslims, the end of empire has rid Russia of a major problem, insoluble in the long term. Those 70 million at the end of the Soviet Union would, in the meantime, have come close to 100 million, on average much younger, more agile and more aggressive than the Russians of Russia. If demography is destiny, Russia after the Soviet Empire is, more than before, the master of its own – demographic – fate.
But the end of empire also meant that many millions of Russians left the wastelands of Siberia to look for softer living conditions in the western part of the country, while forced labour has gone out of fashion since Brezhnev and would not in any case be helpful in running oil wells, or building and maintaining pipelines through hostile territory.
Throughout its history Russia had an abundance of people, and those in power treated the masses just as masses, to be dispensed in war or peace without much regard for human life or human dignity. Nobody knows just how many people perished in the Gulag or were sent into bloody battle. This has changed, not through a conversion to a different philosophy but through the unwillingness of many well-educated young people to stay in Russia or, if they stay, to produce children and raise them. Today’s Russia is rich in resources except the most important one: people and their pursuit of happiness.
In 2007 a report was published, endorsed by President Putin, on Russia’s demographic predicament and the proposed policy to stem the tide. RIA Novosty reported the findings: every 21 seconds on average a baby is born into the Russian federation, and every 15 seconds a person dies. Every hour the Russian population is reduced by about 100 people, every year overall numbers shrink by between 800,000 and 900,000. The UN’s relative optimism gives a forecast of 113 million overall for the mid-twenty-first century; pessimists in Moscow put the number, if the tide does not turn, at 96 million. If this is the case, the consequences are grim not only in overall numbers, but also in terms of the balance between Russians and non-Russians, especially Muslims. Within fifty years, at current rates, Islam might be the predominant religion throughout Russian lands. Venyamin Popov, the President’s special envoy to the Organization of the Islamic Conference, at a press conference in October 2007 opened a window into the future. Few Russians liked what they saw: ‘Almost 20 million Muslims live in today’s Russia. In twenty years’ time they will exceed one third of the population and by mid-century Muslims will outnumber all other groups of believers.’ The explanation is clear: Muslims tend to have more children than Russians. Asked about the outlook for the rest of Europe, Popov was equally clear. The decline of indigenous population throughout Europe was ‘inevitable’; ‘in two to three generations Europeans will become a minority in Europe.’ Russians like a good nightmare. So it came as no surprise when Popov predicted that the next five or ten years will witness acute confrontation between the Muslim world and the West in international politics. Note that all of a sudden Russia is counted as the ‘West’. The conflicts throughout the Middle East, in Somalia, or even the war in Iraq are the harbingers of more crises and conflicts to come.
To frustrate these forecasts and to keep ahead in the competition for numbers is what the Kremlin calls the ‘number one national project’. Putin time and again comes back to the bleak prospect of a dying Russia. When the Soviet Union fell apart, the trickle of Jewish emigration to Israel increased to a mass flight of over one million people who headed for the Holy Land or used it as a way station en route to the United States. By now, the ex-Russians have a conspicuous presence in Israel, flourishing in business, in the army, in politics and in other professions.
A similar exodus has taken place in the direction of Germany. Almost two million ethnic Germans took the Western exit, and close to 100,000 Jews also decided to go the same way and seek their fortune in Germany and beyond. Russians, too, have left the motherland in great numbers, notably in the direction of Berlin and London. Thus, Russia has lost many more school teachers, university professors and doctors than the country can afford. The Russians speak of a ‘brain drain’, deploring the loss of most or all of their technical elites. The most obvious consequence is that there is not enough manpower to run basic industries, let alone to modernize them along Western standards.
Decline
At the same time, the decline of population throughout Russia, except in the Muslim populated areas, was also fed by a serious decline in living standards as well as mounting housing problems. In addition, Russians were influenced by the same complex forces of cultural standards, attitudes and identity at work throughout Western countries. By now, the demographic crisis is the most serious hindrance to economic growth, technology and progress in research and development. In a recent interview Alexander Goncharuk, CEO of AFK Sistema, a Russian telecom giant, was asked about the shortage of highly qualified manpower. His answer can stand for many companies short of experts and expert training: ‘This year [2007] we open, near Moscow, a super-clean room on a par with best practice throughout Europe. All the specialists that we need we have to train abroad. Whoever has something in his head, or a high IQ, is being sent abroad for further education. Our people come to understand and practise not only a certain knowhow but also a holistic technological culture.’
As to long-term emigration, Goncharuk was sanguine: ‘Those who have left will come back. Here they find what Americans call a challenge. What concerns me, however, is the fact that the middle management has broken away and that there are too few technicians. We produce accountants, lawyers, experts in marketing and public relations. But where are the engineers?’
Goncharuk warned that lack of experts could be a serious brake on the development of Russia: ‘You can have a market. But without experts long-term growth will collapse.’ Foreign managers in top positions? Putin had publicly voiced his misgivings, but Goncharuk qualified the message: ‘Putin meant something else. How long can Russia still rely on Western human resources? If we make Sistema off limits for foreigners, this would hit hundreds of high achievers.’
Putin sees the government duty bound to start a high-tech offensive. But can Russia catch up with the top-performing companies all around the globe? The industrial managers view the state directives with mixed feelings: ‘We feel more and more the state’s support, be it as investor or consumer, whether civil or military. What needs to be maintained is the balance between state corporations and private enterprise. For private companies the question is ultimately of how profitable a project is.’[8]
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