“There’s another point, Mr. Ambassador,” Knox said. “The Germans may never have envisaged a civil war. We certainly haven’t planned, let alone exercised, a full-scale invasion of Texas or Montana. The Germans might have proved far more lethal if they’d launched an invasion of Britain or defended the Atlantic Wall against us.”
Andrew nodded in agreement. He had no doubt that the Germans had thousands of contingency plans — everything from civil unrest to nuclear war — but those plans would have been shot to hell by the civil war. Units they’d thought they could rely on had turned on their leaders; others had been shattered by internal fighting, priceless weapons and equipment destroyed in the crossfire. The steady collapse of federal authority across the United States, just prior to the civil war, was one thing. This was far worse.
They had to put the invasion — and defence — of Germany Prime together from scratch, he thought. And they did a damn good job.
“Very true,” Turtledove said.
He rested his hands on his desk as he spoke. “Washington has also been asking for recommendations,” he added. “Do we continue the program of covert support? Do we go more overt? Or do we pull back, now that Berlin is safe?”
“There is no way that the SS does not know that we are assisting the Berlin Government,” Andrew said, flatly. “They would have lost all doubt, Mr. Ambassador, the moment a Stinger blew one of their aircraft out of the sky. And we should brace ourselves for some kind of drastic reaction.”
The Ambassador frowned. “They’d have to be insane to pick a fight with us.”
“They would see it as us picking a fight with them,” Andrew said.
“Kicking them while they were down,” Knox agreed.
The Ambassador sighed. “So… what do you recommend?”
Andrew frowned. “My contacts tell me that the Provisional Government intends to take the offensive as soon as possible,” he said. “They may intend to invade Germany East before winter, before it becomes impossible to continue the offensive. This is probably their best hope of winning the war quickly — and frankly, sir, we should help them as much as possible.”
“But continuing the war will weaken them,” Knox pointed out. “The longer they fight each other, the easier it will be for their allies to desert them.”
“There’s also the prospect of nuclear weapons being used,” Andrew warned. “The longer the war, the greater the chance that someone will pop a nuke.”
“Or fire on us,” the Ambassador said.
“We would have to give the ABM system its first real test,” Andrew agreed.
He scowled. No one, not even the President, knew how well the ABM system would handle a real missile attack. It had been tested, of course, but only on one or two ballistic missiles at a time. Who knew what would happen when — if — the Nazis launched over a hundred ballistic missiles at America? Even if two-thirds of them were intercepted, the remainder would be enough to destroy the United States.
And the President will burn the Reich in response, he thought. And millions of innocent people will die.
“My very strong recommendation is that we assist the Provisional Government as much as possible,” he said, flatly. “The war needs to be ended as quickly as possible.”
“If it can be ended,” Turtledove mused. “General… if they launch an offensive, what are the odds of success?”
“Incalculable,” Knox admitted. “We simply lack enough information to make a proper judgement. We have no idea how many panzers remain in Germany East, we have no idea how many aircraft are at their disposal, we have no idea how long the SS edifice will remain intact under the pressures of war. And, as Andrew says, we have a great many question marks over the nuclear bombs. It is impossible to say just what will happen when the Heer goes east.
“Practically speaking, I’d give them a reasonably good chance of establishing a solid foothold in Germany East before winter intervenes,” he added. “I find it hard to imagine that the SS held back many panzers and aircraft from their great offensive. But I don’t know if they can make it all the way to Germanica before winter. There’s plenty of space to trade for time, plenty of strongpoints and fortresses that would need to be reduced… their logistics are going to be a major pain.”
“1941 all over again,” Andrew commented.
He’d studied Operation Barbarossa during his training and he still didn’t understand how someone with even minimal military knowledge could have signed off on it without a few qualms. The Germans had faced France on roughly equal terms — the French had even had a few advantages of their own — but they’d won through bringing vastly superior force to bear at the decisive point. The Russians… Russia was immense, with plenty of space to trade for time, while the Red Army was staggeringly powerful. And the Germans had come far too close to losing.
And if they hadn’t declared war on Japan, he thought, we might have helped the Russians kick them out of Russia.
“It’s possible,” Knox agreed. “We simply do not know.”
Turtledove nodded. “And your recommendation, General?”
Knox considered it for a long moment. “It should be noted,” he said, “that the longer the war rages on, the weaker the Germans will become. And while that does raise the spectre of a nuclear release, it also offers the prospect of the Reich collapsing and the end of a global threat. Whoever won the war would need to spend years rebuilding, if they could rebuild.”
He paused, thoughtfully. “But we can probably do business with the Provisional Government,” he added. “That is not true of the SS.”
Andrew nodded. “In this case, the devil we don’t know is better than the one we do,” he said, flatly. “The SS is a devil we know too well.”
He sighed. “You’ve already heard stories of atrocities,” he added. “What sort of nightmare will be unleashed if the SS wins the war?”
“That isn’t our concern,” Knox said. “Our sole concern is protecting America.”
“And a friendly regime in control of the Reich will be better for America than a regime that hates us,” Andrew pointed out. “We can dicker with the Provisional Government.”
“Perhaps,” Turtledove said. He smiled, rather sourly. “Washington may overrule our recommendations anyway.”
“Of course,” Knox grunted. “The people in Washington aren’t the people on the spot.”
Andrew winced. He hadn’t been back to the United States since before the crisis had begun, but he had been hearing things through the grapevine. Everyone wanted to have their say, from Poles and Frenchmen who wanted their countries to be independent to groups that wanted to isolate America from the world or even support the Nazis. And everyone was likely to be disappointed. Poland no longer existed — the Poles who had escaped were the only true Poles left in existence — and France was a shadow of its former self. Andrew suspected it would take generations for the French to recover, even if the Germans pulled out tomorrow…
And while the Provisional Government is better than the SS, he added silently, they’ll still put German interests first.
Knox was right, he knew. Distance — and wishful thinking — had played a large role in several foreign policy disasters; now, with a nuclear power wracked by civil war, the disaster could be a great deal worse. But the President would have to balance a number of competing factions if he wanted to steer America through the growing crisis… and that might be impossible. There were midterm elections coming up.