So… let us assume a Reich that reaches from the French coastline to the Urals and the border of Iran. How long can they actually keep it?
That is not, of course, an easy question to answer. Taking territory is one thing, but controlling it indefinitely is quite another. The Germans would be no less willing than the Soviet Union to exterminate vast numbers of people or forcibly relocate them to places well out of the way. On the other hand, controlling places like Greece and France would be difficult. Would the French go quiet if the Germans offered them a liveable peace? Or would the French resistance grow stronger as the German grip tightened?
The Germans would, I suspect, face a great deal of partisan warfare in both Russia and the Middle East, if only because they won’t be offering the natives any sort of liveable peace. Hitler might have been happy to work with the Arabs — the Arabs would probably exterminate the Jews in Palestine for him — but he didn’t see them as anything more than Untermenschen. I would expect the Nazi grip to tighten, just to make sure the oil keeps flowing to Germany, and eventually a bid to outright exterminate the locals.
Hitler would need to boost his population by any means necessary. On one hand, the Nazi plans to encourage a growing birth-rate would have time to bed in, probably giving Nazi Germany a baby-boom. On the other, large numbers of young men will have been killed during the war, probably forcing the Germans to use young women in industries rather than bringing up children. (The Nazis didn’t want women to work outside the homes, but they may have to compromise if there is a major manpower shortage.) The kidnapping program — in which the Nazis took ‘Aryan’ children from their parents and gave them to good Germans to raise — would probably pick up speed. So too would attempts to convince ‘Aryan’ westerners — like Norwegians — that they were actually Germanic.
The German economy is an interesting question. Historically, despite waging war against most of the world, the Nazis didn’t embrace a command economy until 1942, when Speer was appointed as Minister of Armaments. Speer consolidated power over the German economy despite bitter opposition. I’ve actually heard it speculated that Speer’s reforms came six months too late to save Germany. Assuming that Speer’s reforms are not seen as necessary in this timeline, what will happen to the German economy? I suspect it might well remain a fragmented mess of bailiwicks, controlled by the various German ministries, rather than a single organised whole.
Nazi German was constantly pushing the limits of technology — rockets and jet aircraft in particular — but I doubt the US will remain behind for long. The real question would be German mass production. Using slave labour in factories which require precision and adherence to detail is asking for trouble. Choosing to ignore ‘Jewish’ science would cripple the Reich’s nuclear program. As technology advances, the Reich might well start falling behind.
Education, in fact, is likely to have a dangerous long-term effect on the Reich. Children were not taught to think for themselves and question authority. The SS wouldn’t see any difference between questioning orthodox science and questioning the Reich itself. Children were expected to join the Hitler Youth and excel in manly pursuits — creating a body of part-trained manpower for the military — rather than study science. Matters would not be helped by the Reich’s triumph seemingly ‘proving’ Hitler’s nuttier racial theories. Reasoning from incorrect — and absurd — premises would lead future scientists to incorrect conclusions.
Overall, just how long would the Reich actually last?
Hitler will die at some point, shortly after the war. His health was already failing before he killed himself in OTL. Unless he does something to create a long-term governing structure for the Reich, there is almost certainly going to be a major dispute over the succession, not least because Hitler liked playing his subordinates off against one another. Himmler would seem to be the heir presumptive, but there would be other candidates. Speer? Goering? Or someone who rose in power past the end of 1945? It’s very tempting to imagine a civil war following the death of Hitler, as the SS attempts to take complete control and the other factions actively resist it.
The Reich would presumably have a handful of nuclear weapons by 1950, unless — for whatever reason — nukes are never used in this timeline. I suspect at that point global politics would effectively freeze, just as they did in OTL. The Reich would maintain its dominance over Europe, while America built a NATO-analogue or went back to sleep (assuming there was no Japanese War). Britain would want to try to maintain its empire, but it would be incredibly difficult to do anything of the sort.
A nightmare would have descended across the Reich. Even in Germany, Germans would not be safe from the SS — war-wounded veterans, amongst others, would be targeted for elimination. Entire populations deemed inferior would be exterminated. Millions upon millions would be ruthlessly slaughtered or enslaved. It would be the end of the world as they knew it.
But would this Reich last for a thousand years?
That, of course, is the question. I believe the answer is very definitely no, barring a considerable — and unlikely — degree of political reform. The economy would grow weaker and weaker — while the US moved ahead — while no application of military force would be able to hide the Reich’s underlying weaknesses. Would there be a semi-peaceful collapse, as Harry Turtledove speculated, or my outright civil war?
Perhaps we should be grateful that we will never know.
Appendix: German Words and Phrases
Abwehr — German Military Intelligence
Bund Deutscher Mädel (BDM) — League of German Girls/Band of German Maidens, female wing of the Hitler Youth.
Einsatzgruppen — SS extermination squads
Gastarbeiter — guest worker
Gau — an administrative subdivision.
Gauleiter — the party leader of a regional branch of the Nazi Party; later, regional leader of a district.
Generalmajor — Major General
Germanica — Moscow, renamed after the war
Hauptsturmführer — SS rank, roughly equal to Captain.
Heer — The German Army
Herrenvolk — master race
Junker — German nobleman
Kessel — ‘caldron,’ German military term for trapping an enemy formation.
Kinder, Küche, Kirche — Nazi slogan, roughly “children, kitchen, church.”
Kriegsmarine — The German Navy
Lebensborn — literally ‘font of life.’ SS-run program for increasing the German population, including measures to encourage breeding and the kidnapping of ‘Aryan’ children from non-German families.
Lebensraum — ‘Living Space.’
Luftwaffe — The German Air Force