The colonel was winding up his part of the brief, and the captain-interpreter relayed, “General Long would like to know if the source you mentioned earlier had any information on the holdouts’ timetable.”
“No, General,” Won replied apologetically. He explained, “The working theory has always been that they were having problems with the ballistic missiles’ guidance systems. Our capture of the ballistic missile expert Ga confirmed this, but it is much harder to gauge the holdouts’ patience, especially about something as irrational as revenge.”
General Sohn spoke up. “I believe that the remnants of the Kim faction have no expectation of survival. History has often shown the military forces of a dictatorship collapsing when they sense that the end is near. That is not the case here.
“I believe these troops are defending the last bits of their territory so fiercely because they are buying time for their leaders to prepare a retaliatory strike. I realize that this is an assumption based on another assumption, but what evidence we have fits this theory.”
Rhee barely waited for Colonel Won to sit down before beginning, and he spoke so quickly that Kevin wondered if there was a getaway car behind the tent with its motor running.
“Operation Kut will begin just after dark with an assault by the Chinese all along the Chongchon River front, concentrating on Anju in the northwest. This will occupy the holdouts’ attention while US forces to the south and Korean forces to the west and east move into final attack positions. Two hours later, regardless of Chinese progress, the American and Han forces will attack, concentrating on taking the towns of Sukchon in the southwest and Sunchon in the southeast. Both are road junctions and the largest towns in the area. They are important military targets in their own right, but the attack on Sukchon will hopefully mask our operations near the real target.”
As he explained the first part of the operation, Rhee tapped the keyboard. A long blue line appeared along the Chongchon River, and then a second line appeared marking the western edge of the redoubt, and two more bordering the south and east. “All forces will have heavy artillery and air support.”
General Tae spoke up, asking, “What kind of losses do you expect to your air support?” Little was impressed with Tae’s diplomacy. The subtext to the question was “Remember the air defenses? You could lose a lot of planes.”
“Much of the first wave will be air-launched decoys. Both the Americans and Chinese have them in numbers, and some are being transferred for use by Korean aircraft as well. They can mimic the flight path and profile of a fighter. We expect the holdouts to waste missiles on them, and hopefully reveal any camouflaged gun emplacements.
“We will expend almost all our stocks of decoys, and will also have many of our remaining UAVs in the area to observe. The UAVs are smaller and won’t be flying attack profiles, so they should live long enough to do their job.”
Rhee nodded toward General Sohn. “Once the commander is satisfied we have identified as many of their air defense installations as possible, he will signal a massive artillery barrage. This will use every long-range tube we have, and the multiple-barrage rocket launchers as well. We will not use aircraft to attack the air defense positions, although we’ll use any surviving UAVs to check the results.” He smiled. “It’s best not to hunt duck hunters with ducks.”
He nodded toward the Chinese general. “I apologize for not sharing this plan with you before the meeting, but to be honest, we’re still working on the details. It means a lot of your heavy artillery will be out of position to support your own troops, but it should reduce your aircraft losses significantly.”
Through his interpreter, Long answered, “It is satisfactory, although I would suggest that any artillery positions that are discovered also be targeted.” Sohn nodded his concurrence.
Rhee continued, “My team will follow the artillery strike in, and land here.” He marked a spot on the map just two kilometers from the missile bunker. “We’ll be using a full company from my Ninth Special Forces Brigade for this attack. We’ll approach the landing zone from two different routes through the mountains. This will increase our chance of success, just in case one group runs into functional air defenses.” He traced paths that wound through the landscape from the west. Both ended in a meadow that was shielded from the bunker’s view by a sharp ridge.
“In addition to our flights, attack helicopters will supplement the troops’ advance with close air support strikes along the outer defenses, and the air base here”—he tapped the location at the south end of the valley—”will also be attacked by Korean special forces and aircraft. All this is in addition to the general attack by Korean, Chinese, and American troops into the Redoubt itself.”
General Long spoke again, this time asking, “This is a sound plan, but what if the simple fact of an attack makes them decide to launch the missiles? How much warning will we have if they intend to launch?”
Rhee frowned. “It depends on the missile type and number of missiles… maybe forty-five minutes, possibly an hour.” He called up the schematic of the missile complex again. “The missiles are likely assembled and mated to their transport-erector-launcher, but they won’t be fueled, since this would make them too heavy to raise to launch position. The TELs will have to emerge from one of these three doors, which are all armored, drive a few hundred meters away, and bring the missiles vertical before they can be fueled. If they’re clever, they’ve already prepositioned fuel and oxidizer tanks, and pre-surveyed the launch coordinates down to the centimeter.”
He paused for a moment, and Colonel Won added, “At the very best we’re looking at an hour, tops.”
Rhee then picked back up. “However, once my team arrives, we can bring any launchers that emerge under fire, and before we get there, the UAVs will be watching. If there is any sign that the launchers are setting up before we get there, General Sohn will order a continuous hold-down barrage of the area. That will obviously affect the ground troops’ support…”
Long interrupted. “The ground attacks are simply holding exercises — not feints, but secondary to the real objective. I concur. But what if the barrage is not successful?”
Rhee responded, “Colonel Little has confirmed that several US radar planes will be watching the area closely. They’ll be supporting the attacks, of course, but they can also track any ballistic missile launches. They will quickly calculate the impact area and provide a warning.”
Then the colonel shrugged philosophically. “After that, the nation that is targeted will have to respond to the threat separately.”
Kevin smiled grimly. Not only did China have dozens of potential targets, but their best antiballistic missiles were purchased from Russia, and were barely enough to cover Beijing, and perhaps a few other cities. Even the vaunted Russian S-400 couldn’t guarantee a sure kill, and nobody had forgotten about the unsettling appearance of decoys in the earlier missile attacks. He fervently hoped North Korea hadn’t developed any other surprises.
“Then I wish to propose an alternative plan,” Long began. He stood, and the interpreter relayed his words. “You have developed a fine plan, with as good a chance for success as any military operation can have, but nothing is certain. All we can know for sure is that it will be a desperate fight, with many losses.
“However, in this situation, there is a need for both urgency, and certainty. With the permission of the Korean government, and on their behalf, I believe that the surest and simplest course is to use a ballistic missile, which cannot be intercepted or shot down by the Kim holdouts. Our DF-5 can place a five-megaton thermonuclear device within half a kilometer of that missile complex, and no amount of rock will be enough to shield them.”