“What are you saying?” Lauren placed her elbows on the table. “We all saw it. It has to be a gold mine. All those men. The equipment. Those big trucks.”
“It’s window dressing,” Mercer stated. “An elaborate stage setting to convince investors and government officials that Liu has found a gold vein in the jungle. Considering the expense he’s put into it I bet he’s even had geological reports faked to compound the ruse. I’ve seen this done before, usually as an investment scam. A shady mine operator fakes some reports, salts ore samples with gold dust and leaks the findings to the public. When the mine’s stock value goes sky-high, he secretly sells out and vanishes. A week or a month later some regulator goes in with an independent geologist and discovers people have lost millions of dollars over a worthless hole. I’ve personally delivered that kind of bad news to pension fund managers who’ve just lost a bunch of little old ladies’ retirement accounts.”
“You think Liu is attempting the same thing here?” Roddy asked.
“It can’t be,” Lauren opined. “We saw the gold at the warehouse.”
“And it was on the television,” Roddy said. “A big ceremony earlier today with President Quintero where he showed off a bunch of newly minted bars for the media. They even had a new Republic of Panama seal.”
“We all saw gold, yes. That doesn’t mean it came from the mine. The geologic evidence I saw from the culvert doesn’t support a gold vein anywhere near where they’re working.
If you want, I can bore you with details, but it won’t change the fact that the gold we saw came from someplace else. Trust me.”
“Don’t forget the gravel was being shipped to the mine from a ship,” Harry added. “That kind of supports Mercer’s theory.”
“Right. More props for Liu’s stage. I recall it seemed high in quartz, one of gold’s trace elements, so it probably came from an active gold mine. Liu would want samples on hand in case someone gets too interested in his mine. More proof they’d hit the mother lode.”
“If the gold isn’t from the mine, and it isn’t part of the Twice-Stolen Treasure from the lake, where did it come from?”
Foch had hit the crux of the enigma.
“I’d guess the same place the gravel came from,” Mercer said. “China.”
Lauren’s face creased with confusion. “But why? This seems too elaborate for investment fraud.”
“I don’t think it is.” Mercer shrugged. “I don’t know what he’s up to.”
“What about a smuggling operation?” Harry offered. “What if they’re going to use the mine operation as a cover for sneaking that Inca treasure out of Panama?”
“I’d considered that,” Mercer said. “But if Liu planned to smuggle out all the gold, why legitimize his discovery at all? Why not just take the gold from the lake and ship it straight back to China? By pretending it came from the mine, he has to pay a good portion of the proceeds to Panama’s government in licenses and taxes. He’d lose half the gold’s value plus the expense of creating the mine in the first place. He’s too slick for that. It has to be something else.”
“What?”
“Let us look at the facts.” Roddy ticked off his fingers as he spoke. “The Chinese have built a fake gold mine. They have brought in gold and ore, probably from China, to make it appear legitimate while they look for a huge treasure buried near the River of Ruin. Once they find the Twice-Stolen Treasure they will likely pretend that that gold came from the mine. By reporting it as coming from the mine, he will have to pay tens or hundreds of millions of dollars unnecessarily. Do we agree so far?”
The others nodded, waiting for Roddy to continue, believing he’d found a pattern.
“Well, those are the facts.” The former canal pilot lowered his fist. “I am sorry I don’t know what they mean either.”
Amid the defeated exhalations, another round of drinks was poured. Miguel had fallen asleep against Mercer, his smooth face turned away from the light, his snores soft in the adults’ frustrated silence.
“What could Liu gain by just giving all that money to the government?”
“More local power than he already has.”
Roddy shook off Foch’s suggestion. “With the amount of money Hatcherly Consolidated has poured into my country, Liu already has as much power as any man in Panama. Unless he wants to be named emperor or something.”
Lauren picked up the thread. “Plus, if he wants to get further into President Quintero’s good graces he could simply turn over all the treasure. Once they find it,” she added.
“You’re saying that Liu wants to maintain control of the gold so he can dole it out more slowly?” Harry’s question was answered with a nod. “Well, we all know that politicians have pretty short memories. Let’s say Liu gives them the treasure all at once. What do you bet in a year none of ’em recall Liu’s generosity when he wants the go-ahead on some other scheme? By holding back part of the gold he can keep Quintero or whoever’s in power on a pretty tight leash.”
Foch suddenly saw what Harry had figured out. “By keeping them grateful, he can keep them, ah, obedient, yes?”
“For years.”
“No,” Mercer said. “For as long as the treasure lasts. The supply isn’t inexhaustible.”
“Ah, guys,” Lauren drawled, inspiration flashing in her magical bicolored eyes. “What if we’re coming at this backwards.”
“What do you mean?” Foch accepted a cigarette from Harry.
“We’re assuming that Liu’s plan is to just give money to Panama in exchange for some later concession. But Roddy mentioned that Hatcherly already walks on water in the government’s eyes and I’ve heard pretty much the same thing since I rotated in. Hatcherly doesn’t need to give them anything.” She paused, as if unsure.
“Okay.” Mercer drew out the word to help her draw out the idea.
“Rather than ask something of Panama later, what if they plan to take away something now and use the treasure to compensate?”
“You’re talking about the canal?”
“What else?” She gathered herself, warming to the wild idea as she explained. “Think about it. Hatcherly is just going to give the government millions of dollars in gold when they could have just snuck it out of the country. They already control container ports, a pipeline, the railroad, and a dozen other businesses. The only thing they don’t directly run is the canal. Maybe the gold is payment to take it over too.”
“Captain Vanik,” Roddy interrupted, “the Canal Authority pays my government roughly two hundred and thirty million dollars a year. If Liu is given control of the waterway he might be able to match that in gold revenue for a couple of years, but like Mercer said, the treasure will eventually run out. And then what?”
He’d pointed out a fatal flaw in her idea but she refused to give up. She was convinced she was on to something. “Maybe they only want control for a couple of years.”
“Why?”
“I don’t know.” She blew a frustrated breath. “Maybe they want to shut it down or something.”
“They couldn’t do it.” Roddy was on familiar territory and spoke with authority. “Part of the treaty that handed the canal back to Panama was that the United States maintains the right to use military force if open navigation is threatened by an overt act. If Liu intentionally shut down the canal American marines would hit the beaches within days to reopen it.”
“I thought I read somewhere that U.S. intervention is dependent on Panama allowing them to land,” Foch said.
“That’s just a technicality,” Roddy said, dismissing the idea.
And then Mercer saw the whole thing. It was as if Liu’s entire operational plan was laid out in front of him. He knew exactly what the Chinese were after. He’d been leaning back in his chair and shifted so suddenly the legs snapped against the floor. “It is a technicality, yes, but a very important one. If a shutdown isn’t an overt act, the U.S. can’t come in without an invitation.” He focused on Roddy because of the former canal pilot’s expertise. “Let’s say Liu wants temporary control of the canal but can’t act in the open. His next best option would be some covert act of sabotage. Something short-term that won’t look suspicious and can’t be tracked back to him.”