“Night delivery, CBUs, and precision-guided munitions,” President Childress commented. “That’s all state of the art.”
“Yes, sir. High speed and low drag all across the board. We’re identifying late-model ordnance from all over the world. Israeli, Brazilian, South African, as well as some home-brewed Taiwanese stuff we’ve never even seen before.”
“None of those ready-alert fighters looked like they even had the chance to start their engines.”
“They didn’t, Mr. President. Far as we can tell, the PLA’s entire sector air-defense net crashed just as the first Nationalist strike wave crossed the beach. Massive internal sabotage. They had this thing organized!”
The video run ended and the screen returned to the map image.
“At any rate,” the Security Adviser continued, “by first light, the Nationalists had achieved tactical air supremacy over the province. They followed up by putting a full marine division ashore here, at Chinchiang, supported by a series of battalion-scale airborne and airmobile landings and Special Forces paradrops in the Communist rear areas.
“Followup waves are going in across the beach now, with the primary axis of assault trending southward. My guess is that they’re going for the port facilities at Amoy.”
“What were the Reds doing while all of this was going on?”
“They were being taken very by surprise. Fujian was supposed to be a secure rear area for them.”
Ben Childress frowned as he digested the data block.
“What about the rebel factions?” he said abruptly. “How are they involved in this?”
“It’s obvious that the United Democratic Forces and the Nationalists are working hand in glove,” Lane Ashley replied. “Concurrent with the invasion, there was a whole wave of sabotage and guerrilla attacks throughout the province, plus evidence of a number of major defections from within the local Communist defense forces.
“Also, the landing was coordinated with a major UDF ground offensive out of their Hunan stronghold area. They must have been planning and working together on this operation for a long time.”
Van Lynden hadn’t been looking forward to this moment.
President Childress shifted in his chair to face the secretary of state. “What about this, Harry? Every word that’s come across my desk from State has indicated no major connections between Taiwan and the rebels. Supposedly, the UDFC was almost as distrustful of the Nationalists as of the Communists, and the Taiwanese government was losing interest in a mainland involvement. What happened?”
“We were false-flagged, sir. Obviously, the Nationalists and the UDFC have a covert support and planning network in place, one that we never even had a suspicion of. Also, obviously, they’ve developed a mutually compatible political agenda and a close alliance.
“I accept responsibility for this failure within State. I can offer no excuse except for the fact that the Nationalists have probably been putting this structure in place, bit by bit, for the past fifty years, and they’ve done a damn good job of it. As Sam pointed out, they had this thing organized.”
Childress nodded and took off his glasses. Removing a folded white handkerchief from his coat pocket, he began to polish the lenses with great deliberation. Everyone on the staff recognized the action as one of the president’s favorite “thinking stalls.” Finally, he redonned them with a crisp, precise movement. “Well, people,” he said. “Let’s face it. They whipped our ass, and they whipped it damn good. However, I don’t think that recriminations, self or otherwise, will accomplish all that much. We need to shift focus to what’s going to happen next and what’s to be done about it. Any projections?”
“Nothing beyond a major destabilization of the situation,” Lane Ashley sighed. “As we have seen, the Nationalist military is both well trained and well equipped with state of the-art armaments technology. While numerically not as large as the forces fielded by either the Communists or the UDFC, they will provide the rebels with the mechanized ground units and the air and sea power they lack. That, plus a guaranteed source for logistics and high tech weaponry I have to say that this definitely tilts the odds against the Beijing regime.”
“I don’t think anyone at this table will expend too many tears at that eventuality,” the president said dryly.
Sam Hanson straightened slightly in his chair “The question is, sir, what the Reds will be willing to do to tilt things back their way.”
“What options do they have?”
Sam Hanson answered “Barring pro-Communist outside intervention, something about as likely as a hailstorm in hell, there’s only one. Go nuclear.”
The briefing room suddenly became quieter, and somehow cold. In councils such as this, the “N” word was not bandied about lightly.
“General Hanson,” Childress said, reverting to his Security Adviser’s old rank. “I’ve read the theoretical studies that were made back during the dissolution of the USSR on the concept of a nuclear civil war. Frankly, I never put much stock in them. I have a hard time visualizing any national leader sanctioning the use of atomic weapons against his own people.”
“Sir we are talking about an Asian culture here. I know that making cultural judgments is considered politically in correct these days, but this reminds me of a story I heard that came out of the Korean War.
“It seems that some members of the Red Chinese government were concerned about the possibility that the United States might use the atomic bomb against them. When the question was put to the high command of the People’s Liberation Army one of the generals just shrugged his shoulders and said ‘We lose a few million. What of it?’ That could be the kind of mentality we may be facing here.”
“But, damn it all, they’d be blasting their own nation into a radioactive wasteland. What would be the gain?”
“It wouldn’t be a matter of gain Mr. President,” Van Lynden cut in. “It would be a matter of loss. The most basic premise of international statesmanship since 1947 has been that you never back a nuclear power into a corner that they can’t get out of. That may be happening here.”
“How so, Harry?”
“In a civil war situation, you have everything to lose, and nothing to lose. The Red leadership knows that if the rebels come out on top, they have nothing to look forward to, except for exile at best, or a war crimes trial at worst. They could very easily decide that half a country is better than none.”
“God damn.”
This time Childress didn’t bother with his glasses as he paused to contemplate this thought.
“We must assume,” he said finally, “that the Nationalists would have worked this out as well. Knowing the risks, why would they be so willing to go to the wall? They have the options. Why court that kind of obliteration?”
“Maybe they figure they have a kicker,” Hanson replied.
“The only cards strong enough to count in that kind of game would be mega tonnage and throw weight,” Van Lynden said. “MAD — mutual assured destruction.”
Childress shifted his attention to the NSA director. “What about this, Ms. Ashley. Could the Nationalists or the UDFC have nuclear capacity?”
“The exact nuclear status of any of these involved parties is open for debate, Mr. President,” she replied. “Of course, the PRC was a nuclear power long before its civil war. However, we are not certain how much of that arsenal remains in their control, or is operational. For example, we know that all three of Red China’s Xia-class fleet ballistic-missile submarines were laid up last year, apparently for lack of resources to maintain them.
“We also know that on at least two occasions, the UDFC expended considerable effort in trying to seize a portion of the remaining Red atomic arsenal. Major land battles were fought over the PRC’s strategic missile bases at Tongdao and Luoning.”