“What was the outcome?”
“We aren’t certain. We do know that in both instances, the PLA blew up the facilities before retreating and that neither is operational at this time. Our best sitguess is that if the UDFC has managed to seize atomic arms, they’ll probably be in the form of low-yield tactical weapons: artillery shells and mines, free-fall bombs, and warheads for FROG and Scud-type battlefield missiles. Not strategic arms, but big enough to make a considerable mess.”
“About the third side of the equation, the Nationalists?”
At this question from the president, the three advisers exchanged sober glances. “That’s a very good question, sir,” the NSA woman said. “One we’ve been trying to get an answer on for some time.”
“I don’t need that kind of ambiguity, people.”
“That’s all we can give,” Van Lynden replied. “The status of Taiwan as a nuclear power has been one of the great question marks in the arms-control field since at least the late seventies.”
“That’s right, sir,” Hanson added. “They’ve had the reactors, they’ve had the tech, and, God knows, they’ve had the motivation. They’ve also maintained a low-key but very active R-and-D exchange program with Israel and South Africa, both states with known atomic capability. For example, we know that the Nationalists have fielded and used domestically produced variants of the Israeli Jericho battlefield SRBM and Masada cruise missile — both of which, by the way, are nuclear-capable delivery systems.”
“And yet Taiwan has signed the nuclear nonproliferation treaty and has stated repeatedly, both to us and to the U.N., that they do not have nuclear arms. Do you believe they’re lying?”
“I believe that they may be guilty of a polite political sophistry,” Van Lynden replied. “Israel has also repeatedly stated that they do not have nuclear weapons, and technically speaking, that’s the truth. What they do have are component sets that can be assembled into functional weapons in a matter of hours. That could be the case here.”
“Good Christ Almighty,” Childress whispered. “Three different fingers on three different buttons and a high desperation level all the way around. And they thought the Cuban missile crisis was bad.”
“That’s the assessment, sir. The destiny of China for the next century, i. e., for one quarter of the human race, is going to be decided over the next couple of months. Now we need to decide just what part we’re going to play in that decision.”
“You’ve saved me from having to state the obvious, Harry. Now, do you have any suggestions about what part we can play?”
Van Lynden nodded. “Yes, sir, I do. We take advantage of the situation.”
The secretary of state lifted his briefcase to the tabletop.
Opening it, he removed a thin file folder.
“My proposal paper, sir,” he said, placing it in front of President Childress. “I suggest that we take this opportunity to try to initiate a series of crisis-reduction talks with the three primary involved parties. A peace conference to be held on some neutral ground.
“We try to bring in all of the western Pacific Rim states — Japan, the Philippines, Korea, everyone who’d be downwind of a Chinese nuclear exchange. We try to get them to support the peace process by exerting what diplomatic pressure they can on the combatants.”
“If I recall correctly,” Childress replied, “both the Beijing government and the UDFC have responded with outright truculence to outside interference in their conflict. They claim that it’s solely an internal Chinese affair. What makes you think that the Nationalists will be any different, or that anything has changed?”
“Just that the potential for an atomic war is escalating rapidly. Despite Sam’s story, I am pleased to say that atomic war still scares the hell out of a lot of people. Maybe that fear will be the crack we can fit the tip of a crowbar into. If we can just get somebody talking…” Van Lynden let his voice trail off.
The president’s attention shifted around the table. “Ms. Ashley?”
She placed her ops plan beside the secretary of state.
“Staying on top of this situation is going to require a massive retasking of our reconnaissance and intelligence gathering assets, both NSA and military. I’d like State’s assistance in getting us permission to forward-deploy TR-2, Darkstar, and RC-10 assets into Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore.
“I’d like to say Taiwan as well, but that might be imprudent under the current situation. To make up for that, I’d like to see if Seventh Fleet could move any of their available Raven platforms into the South and East China Seas.”
“Sam, what about a military reaction?”
“Low key for the moment,” Hanson replied, sliding his contribution across the table. “Place all of our units in the western Pacific on an increased state of alert. Reenforce the Seventh Fleet with whatever odds and ends we can move out of Pearl. Issue the 366th Composite Wing a flyaway notification for possible deployment to the Far East, and advise CENTCOM that the Chinese theater of operations is now a zone of concern.” Childress nodded in thoughtful agreement.
“One thing further, sir,” Hanson continued. “I’d advise we enhance our nuclear-reaction capacity. I’m not saying that we change our DEFCON status yet, but I suggest we have STRATCOM alter the maintenance and servicing schedules for the Minuteman and Trident forces to maximize system availability for the next few months. Also, Air Combat Command should tie on a series of nuclear-ordnance delivery exercises for the strategic bomber groups.”
“Are you sure that’s necessary, General?”
“Hope it isn’t, Mr. President. But, on the other hand, I’d sure as hell hate for us to be the guy who brought a knife to a gunfight.”
Childress nodded. “Valid point. Thank you all for your input, and for your rapid response on this situation. I think we have the basis for a plan of action here. Now, there’s one thing further you can help me on.”
He gestured toward the three operations files before him.
“When we go active with this, I’m going to have a lineup of isolationist congressmen outside the Oval Office demanding to know why we’re getting involved in another nation’s internal catfight halfway around the world. Any suggestions about what I should tell them?”
There was a moment of general silence. Then Van Lynden said, “Maybe you could point out to them that if the Chinese civil war goes nuclear, we can expect to see at least a couple of dozen old-fashioned, dirty-style atomic bombs detonated in the Earth’s atmosphere within a very short period of time.
“If that happens, every living thing on this planet is going to be involved.”
5
The big ship was quiet, her passageways empty, her crew dispersing to the pleasures of a Honolulu night.
Following the conflagration drill, they had brought the Cunningham back to her shoreside moorage at the Pearl Harbor Fleet Base. Today they had finished with the grind of their requalification exercises. Tomorrow, the work of preparing for West Pac would begin. But for this evening, Amanda Garrett had decreed a well-earned stand-down for all hands.
In her cramped sleeping cabin, she admired herself in the small bulkhead mirror as best she could. The ex-pat Hong Kong seamstress she patronized here in the islands had been right. The azure Egyptian cotton did highlight the golden hazel of her eyes. Sleeveless and slit-skirted, the cheongsam fit as only a tailored garment could, its high collar adding an extra touch to the natural authority of her carriage. Amanda gave an approving nod.