"The Kilo is classified as a medium-range sub, with a top range, on the surface or while snorkeling, of about six thousand miles. That, of course, means that if this Kilo was trying to escort the Kuei Mei all the way across the Pacific, she was going to need refueling in order to make it back.
"The question is why the Chinese were using a diesel submarine as a transoceanic escort. Their Han nuclear boats would be much better choices, in terms of range, since they can go around the world without refueling. At ONI, we could only arrive at two possibilities.
"One, the Kilo was on a mission requiring extreme stealth. Kilos are quiet, very quiet, at least so long as they're submerged and running on their electric motors. Nuclear subs, because of the various cooling plants and pumps associated with their power plants, are noisy… and the Hans are especially so."
"Wait a minute, Captain," Admiral Hartwell said, interrupting. "You can't be saying that that Kilo was crossing the Pacific on her batteries, can you?"
"No, sir. A Kilo can only travel a few hundred miles on her electric drive before she has to recharge, either by surfacing or by running submerged on her snorkel. And both of those options are damned noisy. No, the idea was that our Los Angeles just happened to intercept the Kilo while it was running on batteries, but that it periodically either surfaced or used its snorkel to recharge. If that submarine was intended for some stealthy mission, it would have been somewhere close to our coast, probably within our coastal waters. ONI thinks it possible they were traveling with the freighter, in order to mask the noise they made when snorkeling."
"That," Hartwell said with a frown, "is disquieting."
Gordon was tempted to say something about the admiral's pun but thought better of it. It was probably unintentional.
"I should say that the CIA is partial to this idea. There is another possibility, however, one that some of us at ONI think is more likely. The Kilo was escorting the freighter, as we originally surmised. A Kilo drew the mission rather than a Han because they were training the crew."
"Training the crew?" Hartwell said. "For what?"
"Blue-water operations. Missions far from the Chinese coast. And that, Admiral, gentlemen, is what is truly disquieting." He paused, watching the implications sink into the various members of his audience. Some still looked puzzled, or lost. Most were beginning to get the idea.
"You see," he continued, "short- and medium-range submarines are generally intended for a defensive role. They're kept in close to the home country's coastline, where they can be employed against foreign maritime intruders that may be entering coastal waters, or to escort local shipping.
"But as every sailor knows, things get a lot different when you push off outside of coastal waters. Some of us believe that the Kilo was on a training exercise intended to give her captain and crew a taste of operations in deep water, far from home. She would have escorted the freighter most of the way across the Pacific, but left the Kuei Mei in order to rendezvous with the sub tender and refuel. Then she would return, either alone or with the Kuei Mei, on her return voyage."
"Navies do not undertake such training missions unless there is a serious need," Hartwell pointed out. "The risk of a serious training accident is so grave… "
"Exactly," Gordon said. "This is an especially alarming development coming from the People's Republic. China continues to think of herself as the 'Middle Kingdom,' a central land of civilization surrounded by not-very-interesting barbarians. For a long time now they've been hampered by that worldview, with the result that they've never bothered developing a navy with a truly global outreach. The PLA Navy— and that should tell us something right there, that their navy is still a part of the People's Liberation Army—
was designed strictly for coastal defense, repelling invasions, protecting their territorial waters, that sort of thing.
"Lately, though, there's been a distinct shift in Chinese military philosophy. Their first Xia-class ballistic missile submarine was launched in 1986. Their Han nuclear attack sub dates back to the seventies, but with a few exceptions, they've rarely ventured with them very far from their home waters. Recently, however, the Chinese have been flexing their naval muscles. They appear to have taken delivery on a number of Kilo-class submarines from the Russians, of which this boat was one. Our estimates on the total number of submarines delivered by the Russians at this time range from eight to ten boats, all produced at the Komsomolsk Shipyards.
"And over the past few months, the Chinese have become particularly active in the South China Sea, around the Paracel and Spratly Islands, both of which they consider to be their territory. Blue-water training missions would give their diesel boat crews valuable experience in transiting to key overseas operational areas. A fleet of Kilo-class boats operating out of a Chinese base in the Spratly Islands, for instance, could play havoc with shipping lanes through that region. But the Spratlys are a thousand miles south of mainland China. That's a long haul for sub crews who haven't been trained to operate in deep water."
Admiral Harold Kohl, the commander of the John C. Stennis carrier battle group, turned to Hartwell, seated on his left. "Still seems strange sending a Kilo on escort duty across six thousand miles of the North Pacific, doesn't it, Chuck?"
"Not if you're trying to jump-start your submarine force into something with a global reach," Hartwell replied, his voice grim. "Having the PRC operating a strike force of very quiet submarines in the Spratlys or the Paracels would not be a good thing."
"In fact," Gordon continued, "the Chinese submarine fleet may not be deploying that far afield…at least, not yet. Next slide, please."
The Kilo and the sub tender on the screen were replaced by another high-resolution photo, this one in black and white, shot from a considerable altitude above a seaport or naval facility. Large traveling cranes were clearly visible, as were smokestacks, warehouses, piers, and even individual workers. Of greatest interest was a pair of cigar-shaped vessels moored side by side at one of the piers. A number of white-clad sailors were visible on their decks and on the pier itself. A crane embraced the vessel closest to the pier, which appeared to be swallowing a long, blunt-tipped pencil through a hatch on its forward deck.
"This was taken by one of our intelligence satellites four days ago," Gordon said. "We are looking down on the Huludao Shipyard, two hundred kilometers northeast of Beijing, in Liao Ning Province. We keep a close eye on this port, of course, since it's the same facility where both the Chinese Xia-class ballistic missile submarine and the Han-class nuclear attack submarine were first built and launched.
"These vessels, however, are not of Chinese manufacture. They are Kilo-class diesel boats, purchased within the past few years from Russia. As you can see, they're outfitting at least one of these boats for patrol. That is a twenty-one-inch 'long' antiship torpedo they're wrestling into the weapons loading hatch. Next slide, please."
The next shot was similar to the first. A pair of submarines was moored at a pier in front of a busy military port. Torpedoes were being unloaded from trucks on the pier. Several shorter, stubbier torpedoes were visible as well, apparently being loaded onto the trucks.
"The Jiangnan Shipyard at Shanghai," Gordon explained. "Also four days ago. What's interesting here is that they appear to be unloading twenty-one-inch antisubmarine torps from the Kilos and replacing them with the longer antiship torpedoes."
He took them through more slides, each of shipyards, each showing bustling activity around moored submarines. "We're seeing the same thing at ports all along the Chinese coast," he said. "Luda Shipyard, up at Dalian. Hongqi. Donglang. Guangzhou and Zhonghua. We have counted a total of eight Kilo-class submarines in various ports up and down the Chinese coast, all being outfitted for patrol at the same time. We have also counted all five of their Han-class nuclear attack boats in port, plus all three of the older Ming-class diesel boats, and even a significant number— eight — of their old Romeo- and Whiskey-class boats… clunkers, obsolete boats purchased from the Soviets in the sixties, or built on license for export since then.