‘So we’re dealing with a mass murderer here?’ said Banks.
‘Not necessarily. Though a spree killer operates at two or more locations, there can under certain circumstances be a cooling-off period of up to seven days between killing sprees. Raoul Moat, for example, up in Northumberland in 2010. He shot three people, one of them his ex-girlfriend, and went on the rampage in the countryside. It was seven days before he was found, and then he shot himself.’
‘So our man might not be finished yet?’ said Gervaise.
‘And we have to wait seven days to see if he does it again?’ Banks added.
‘Unless you catch him first,’ said Jenny. ‘Yes, it’s a possibility. But you won’t just be sitting here twiddling your thumbs, will you? A lot can happen in seven days. And it’s not written in stone. He may kill again today, tomorrow, or not at all. He may be a mass murderer who’s finished his work, or a terrorist who’s melted back into the darkness. Moat obviously made a run for it and survived out there for days, but in the end, when it came to the choice, he took his own life rather than face prison. Remember the Hungerford Massacre in 1987? Ryan killed sixteen people and wounded fifteen in and around the Berkshire village of Hungerford. We don’t know why. We assume he had his reasons, but they were explicable only to himself. He also shot himself after being run to ground in a classroom in his old school. You could read all sorts of things into that. And what about Derrick Bird, the taxi driver? Same year as Moat, not far away, in Cumbria. He shot and killed twelve people and wounded eleven more, starting with his twin brother after an argument over a will and tax issues. Then he starts driving around and kills ten people in a forty-five-mile rampage. This all happened on the same day. Bird also shot himself before capture. Or the Dunblane school massacre, sixteen children and one teacher. The killer took his own life. That’s the main thing these killers have in common, except for shooting large numbers of people. They shoot themselves in the end when cornered.’
‘So what would our man do next, assuming he hasn’t shot himself already?’ Banks asked. ‘Where would he be likely to hide?’
‘Good question. I wish I knew the answer. From what I’ve read, he was cautious enough to visit the site in advance of his act, which shows a more than usual preoccupation with escape. Most of these sort of events happen in America, as I’m sure you know. To the degree that some sociologists are labelling mass shootings a contagion there. Schools, workplaces, shopping malls, that sort of thing. Shootings distinct from terrorist acts. Loners, outsiders, disgruntled employees. Rarely do they go in with an escape route planned. If your killer was so concerned with escape, and he hasn’t killed anyone else except the people at the wedding, then it’s logical to predict that he had somewhere to escape to, wouldn’t you agree?’
‘A bolt-hole?’ Banks suggested.
‘Something like that. Somewhere he’d feel safe. Somewhere he’d believe you couldn’t find him. He’s clever and obviously not lacking the nerve to take risks. He could even have gone home, on the assumption that you’re not smart enough to find out who he is or where he lives.’
‘He may well be right about that,’ said Banks.
‘Exactly,’ said Jenny. ‘But it’s good that he thinks he’s smarter than you, and that he likes to take risks. It gives him a far greater chance of slipping up, and you a far better chance of catching him when he does. He could even be doing a “purloined letter” and living next door to the police station. That’s just a frivolous example, by the way. I’m not suggesting you should dash out and check up on it. But do you see what I mean? The level of premeditation, of planning, makes his actions a bit different from the run-of-the-mill rampage killer. And whether he’s finished with the killing or not, he still has to hide out somewhere unless he wants to get caught, and so far I wouldn’t say that he does.’
‘Could he already be overseas?’ asked Gervaise.
‘I suppose it’s always possible,’ Jenny answered. ‘It’s true that he could be anywhere, as none of us know who he is or what he looks like. If he’s as organised as he appears to be, he no doubt had a change of clothing stashed somewhere, perhaps a passport, too. He could be in Paris wearing a business suit and carrying a leather briefcase by now, for all we know. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. If you start assuming things like that, it tends to affect the investigation, sap confidence, lower morale. All we can do is work with what we’ve got. You’d have to ask a geographical profiler for a more detailed analysis — that’s not my area of expertise — but spree killers generally start close to home. They may travel some distance over the course of the spree, but the starting point, and returning point, if they get that far, is somewhere close to home. Remember Ryan and his old school. We don’t know for certain that our man’s a spree killer yet, but the same applies to most rampage killers. So let’s assume he’s not operating too far from home. Unless he is a terrorist — and I’m sure you have experts in that field working with you — there’s a very good chance that he’ll stick to what he knows, where he knows, where he feels comfortable. Remember, he’s not infallible, no matter what he thinks. He will make mistakes. And you have to believe that even if he has fled overseas already, you’ll still bring him to justice in the end.’
Banks could follow the logic in Jenny’s arguments and accept pretty much everything she said, but he could also see why many police officers were suspicious of psychological profilers. After all, she hadn’t told them where to find the killer or how to go about tracking him down. Pep talks were all very well, but how much further ahead were they? ‘Can you be more specific about any of this, Jenny?’ he asked, trying to word his thoughts as diplomatically as possible.
‘Name, address, National Insurance number, you mean?’
‘That sort of thing would be useful.’
Jenny laughed. ‘Sorry. I warned you not to expect too much or you’d be disappointed.’
‘I’m not disappointed, just frustrated.’
‘Well, Alan, I don’t know if it’s in my job description to do anything about that.’
Banks noticed that Gervaise was following the exchange with great interest, and it was hard to miss the sparkle in Jenny’s eyes. He felt himself redden. ‘Same old Jenny,’ he said. ‘Batting the ball back and forth.’
‘Not so much of the old.’ Jenny put her folder down, leaned back in her chair and removed her glasses. ‘I know how frustrating this must be,’ she said. ‘I’ve been through this sort of thing many times before. Many, many more than I had last time we worked together, Alan. Things have come a long way since then. Certainly profilers have and, in some cases, the police attitude towards us has become somewhat more enlightened, but we’re still not miracle workers.’
‘I didn’t mean to be critical,’ Banks said. ‘I’m just thinking about this specific crime. So we’ve got a mass murderer and not a spree killer, maybe, unless he kills again within seven days. That’s useful to know, but it doesn’t help us, it just puts a ticking clock into the equation.’