“Our job is to represent the interests of the United States government,” Harvath stated.
“So which interests would those be?” she asked.
He thought for a moment. “Anything related to the North Atlantic Treaty.”
He was still lying. She could sense it and pressed further. “What’s your objective?”
This time, there wasn’t a pause. Harvath replied immediately. “Per the treaty, to promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area.”
“How, precisely?”
“By doing everything in our power to prevent an Article 5,” he stated. “To make absolutely certain that the United States and its armed forces aren’t dragged into war, any war — no matter what it takes.”
At that moment, everything clicked for her.
CHAPTER 16
Jasinski was intimately familiar with Article 5. She could practically recite it by heart. It was the cornerstone of the NATO treaty:
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
She had been wrong about Harvath and his involvement. This wasn’t simply about American military equipment. This was about the American military.
Out of twenty-nine NATO countries, only six — the United States, the United Kingdom, Greece, Romania, Poland, and Estonia — were annually expending their required 2 percent of GDP on defense.
In light of what she now knew about Russia, it was no wonder the United States had been so angry about the other twenty-three members’ not living up to their military spending agreements. That went double for Lithuania and Latvia, two of the three Baltic countries, which were sitting right on Russia’s doorstep.
America’s debt was in the tens of trillions of dollars and had exploded since the September 11 attacks. Its annual deficits were also out of control. Its budgets showed no signs of balancing. Would the United States willingly incur even more debt to go to war in the Baltics? After nearly two decades in Afghanistan, eight years in Iraq, and multiple years spent chasing ISIS in Syria, would Americans agree to expend additional blood and treasure to defend the tiny Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia? Could a majority of Americans even find those nations on a map? Or, had Americans had enough?
And what about Poland? she thought. Poland was an exceptional partner to the United States. It had met its NATO spending requirements and was a staunch U.S. ally. But if Poland were attacked, would Americans see it as far away and inconsequential as the other Baltic nations? Would the United States honor its commitments and come to Poland’s defense?
Jasinski wanted to believe America would, but if she had to be honest, she wasn’t 100 percent sure. She was even less sure about the United States defending the Baltics.
Though she hated to think it, she could envision a scenario in which America sat things out.
Via fake news and information warfare, she could imagine a fervor being whipped up where Americans might be swayed to believe it was better to let nations like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia fall, rather than have the U.S. go to war with Russia on their behalf.
It had happened before. She had studied it while at the National Defense University. In 1938, Hitler annexed Austria. Instead of coming to Austria’s defense, the rest of the world did nothing.
Emboldened, Hitler then pressed for, and was awarded, a strategic chunk of Czechoslovakia populated by “ethnic Germans,” referred to as Sudetenland. The Europeans, hoping to “slake Hitler’s thirst and avoid a Europe-wide war,” agreed to trade away the sovereign territory of Czechoslovakia for a false peace and empty promises.
Winston Churchill had seen it for the folly it was and had sent a strong warning to his countrymen, as well as the Americans. His words were so chilling to her that she had committed them to memory. “And do not suppose that this is the end. This is only the beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigor, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.”
Things moved quickly downhill from there. In March of 1939, Hitler took the rest of Czechoslovakia and annexed a slice of Lithuania. On September 1 of that same year, the Nazis invaded Poland. Two days later, Britain and France declared war on Germany. Two weeks after that, the Soviet Red Army invaded Poland from the east. On September 27, 1939, Warsaw surrendered to Germany. It would take fifty more years for Poland to fully recapture its freedom.
And while history didn’t necessarily repeat, it did rhyme. What was now making sense to Jasinski was that with its invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula, Russia was taking on the role of Nazi Germany.
The arguments made for the Russian invasion were practically identical to those that had been made by Adolf Hitler and the Nazis. Russia was simply acting to defend ethnic Russians.
Despite having assurances that the United States would defend Ukraine if it agreed to denuclearize, when Russia seized its territory, the United States did nothing but impose sanctions and uselessly saber rattle at the United Nations. It was 1938 all over again.
By allowing Russia to invade Ukraine uncontested, America had emboldened Russia. With a revanchist President intent on returning his country to the power, influence, and territorial integrity of the days of the Soviet Union, Poland and the Baltic nations had every reason to worry that Russia wouldn’t stop at Crimea. Not knowing if America or NATO would come to their aid only deepened that concern.
If Russia invaded even just one of the Baltics and the Americans sat it out, that was it. Not only would it be the end of NATO, but Russia would have nothing further to hold it back. It would be the end of a free and democratic Poland. Poland would be Russia’s next target.
Harvath didn’t have to do any more convincing. Sergun’s rumor clearly made sense as far as Jasinski was concerned. The fact that he and his team had been sent to Europe demonstrated how seriously the Americans were taking the threat. Avoiding a war by taking the fight to Russia, before Russia could bring the fight to them, made sense.
What also made sense was Harvath’s attitude that to do so might require operating outside the bounds of the law.
Looking at him, she asked, “How are we going to stop Russia?”
Harvath liked that she was using the word “we.” “Our main focus has to be figuring out who’s running the operation,” he replied. “If we can uncover that, we can begin to take it all apart.”
“So what’s our next move?”
Glancing at Nicholas, he responded, “We’re going to have to take another trip.”
“Where to?”
“Gotland.”
“The island off Sweden?” she asked.
He nodded.
“Why? What’s on Gotland?”
Climbing down from the table, Nicholas shook his head and answered for him. “Trouble. Very serious trouble.”
CHAPTER 17