38. Zhukov, Vospominaniia, I: 296. See also Sokolov, Georgii Zhukov, 20 (citing a 1930 assessment).
39. In 1941, Soviet counterintelligence reported that many foreign diplomats in Moscow concluded that the Nazi regime’s need for imports from the Soviet Union excluded a military confrontation. Khaustov, “Deiatel’nost’ organov,” 256 (TsA FSB, f. 3os, op. 8, d. 5, l. 169).
40. Sipols, “Torgovo-ekonomicheskie otnosheniia mezhdu SSSR,” 37.
41. Ericson, Feeding the German Eagle, 150–3, 160; Ziedler, “German-Soviet Economic Relations,” 108. Stalin also settled a border dispute in Lithuania with Germany on German terms, paying RM 31 million ($7.5 million) for the sparsely inhabited Lithuania strip abutting East Prussia that the Red Army had unilaterally occupied. The border was formally set between the Igorka River and the Baltic Sea. DGFP, series D, XII: 560–1; Sipols, Tainy, 387; Read and Fisher, Deadly Embrace, 608; Kaslas, “Lithuanian Strip.” See also McSherry, Stalin, Hitler, and Europe, II: 50–66; and Weinberg, Germany and the Soviet Union, 159–63. In Feb. 1941, German paid 22 million marks in gold for cereals from now Soviet Bessarabia.
42. Halder, Halder Diaries, I: 751 (Jan. 16, 1941); Halder, Kriegstagebuch, II: 243–6; Erickson, Road to Stalingrad, 57–8 (German Naval Conference, Jan. 8, 1941); Fuehrer Conferences, 1941, I: 1–4 See also Lota, “Alta” protiv “Barbarossy,” 259 (no citation).
43. Kuznetsov, “Voenno-morskoi flot nakanune Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny,” 68; “Iz istorii Velikoi otechestvennoi voiny,” 202.
44. Banac, Diary of Georgi Dimitrov, 144 (Jan. 21, 1939).
45. On Feb. 14, 1941, Samokhin reported Yugoslav general staff estimates of 250 German divisions total, while specifying their locations. Gavrilov, Voennaia razvedka informiruet, 528–9 (TsAMO, f. 23, op. 24119, d. 4, l. 65–6), 532 (l. 106–7). One scholar has argued that revolutionary states end up in war because the revolution exacerbates existing security dilemmas with neighbors, so that one side or the other comes to view offense as a form of self-defense. Walt, “Revolution and War.” This was a case of two revolutionary states heightening each other’s security dilemma.
46. DVP SSSR, XXIII/ii, 343–5 (AVPRF, f. 06, op. 3, p. 1, d. 4, l. 37–41). On Jan. 21, 1941, the Iron Guard in Romania rebelled against its own government, and lashed out at Jews. “The stunning thing about the Bucharest bloodbath,” one observer noted, “is the quite bestial ferocity of it.” Ninety-three persons were killed. Friedlander, Years of Extermination, 166.
47. Attendees, besides Zhdanov, Molotov, Beria, Voroshilov, and Kaganovich, included Mikoyan, Voznesensky, Bulganin, Pervukhin, Kosygin, and Malyshev—effectively, the economic group. Na prieme, 323.
48. Malyshev, “Dnevnik narkoma,” 114 (APRF, f. 3, op. 62, d. 131, l. 2–91).
49. Malyshev, “Dnevnik narkoma,” 114–5 (APRF, f. 3, op. 62, d. 131, l. 2–91).
50. Banac, Diary of Georgi Dimitrov, 146. “The Soviet Union,” boasted a Red Army political instruction pamphlet of 1941, “has been transformed into a heavy-duty socialist great power exerting enormous influence on the entire course of international development.” Airapetian, Etapy vneshnei politiki SSSR, 93.
51. “My program was to abolish the Treaty of Versailles,” Hitler stated in Berlin (Jan. 31, 1941). “It is nonsense for the rest of the world to pretend that I did not reveal this program until 1933, or 1935, or 1937 . . . No human being has declared or recorded what he wanted more often than I.” Prange, Hitler’s Words, 216.
52. Tooze, Wages of Destruction.
53. Miller, Bankrupting the Enemy.
54. “You are expressly instructed to treat all questions concerning the United States with even more caution than hitherto,” Goebbels instructed the press in 1939. “Even statements made by Mrs. Roosevelt are not to be mentioned.” Friedlander, Prelude, 50.
55. Gallup polls accurately forecast the outcome, and indicated that without a war in Europe, voters would have preferred the Republican candidate, Wendell Willkie. Katz, “Public Opinion Polls.” General Georg Thomas of Germany’s high command received directives to prepare for a long war mere days after Roosevelt won re-election. Friedlander, Prelude, 158.
56. Public Papers and Addresses of Franklin D. Roosevelt, IX: 633–44; Sweeting, “Building the Arsenal of Democracy.”
57. Tooze, Wages of Destruction, 407, 410, 420. The Soviets noted that the British aviation industry had the capacity to mass produce 60,000 planes annually. Erickson, “Threat Identification,” 397, 399. By 1941, some 40 percent of German steel production came from outside the Reich’s 1937 borders. Murray, Change in the European Balance of Power, 13.
58. Hillgruber, Hitlers Stategie, 192–397.
59. The “peripheral” strategy in the Mediterranean was never fundamental, and never a substitute for the invasion of the Soviet Union. Leach, German Strategy, 72–3. See also Feuhrer Conferences, 1941, I: 1–4.
60. Domarus, Hitler: Reden, II: 1663; Förster and Mawdsley, “Hitler and Stalin in Perspective,” 65n8a: Bundesarchiv-Militärarchiv, N 664/2 (Captain Karl Wilhelm Thilo diary).
61. Khaustov, “Deiatel’nost’ organov,” 169 (TsA FSB, f. 3, op. 1, d. 3, l. 14). See also Sudoplatov, Special Tasks, 112–3.
62. Khaustov, “Deiatel’nost’ organov,” 181.
63. An excerpted summary report of NKGB foreign intelligence for 1939 through April 1941 appears in Iampol’skii et al., Organy, I/ii: 130–2 (TsA FSK).
64. Khaustov, “Deiatel’nost’ organov,” 278 (f. 3, op. 7, d. 1732, l. 156). The Soviets had the Italian cipher codes since 1936. Khaustov, “Deiatel’nost’ organov,” 276.
65. Murphy, What Stalin Knew, 102 (no citation); Naylor, Man and an Institution; Cairncross, Enigma Spy, 85–93. On Stalin’s knowledge of the German inability to mount “Sea Lion,” see Vishlev, Nakanune, 37 (citing Spravka KGB SSSR, 219); and Chuev, Sto sorok, 32.
66. West and Tsarev, Crown Jewels, 214. As Andrew observes, their recruiter, Arnold Deutsch, offered a siren call of liberation that had both sexual and political appeaclass="underline" “Burgess and Blunt were gay and Maclean bisexual at a time when homosexual relations, even between consenting adults, were illegal. Cairncross, like Philby a committed heterosexual, later wrote a history of polygamy.” Andrew, Defence of the Realm, 35. See also Knightley, Master Spy, 35. In 1940, Krivitsky, the Soviet defector, was invited in by Jane Archer of MI5 and claimed there were sixty-one Soviet agents in Britain, and gave descriptions that fitted Philby and Maclean, but his revelations were not followed up. Blunt gave Gorsky a secret copy of Krivitsky’s debriefing in Jan. 1941. Krivitsky died in mysterious circumstances in a Washington, D.C., hotel on Feb. 9, 1941. Kern, Death in Washington, 264–5; Costello, Mask of Treachery, 351; West and Tsarev, Crown Jewels, 145 (quoting KGB archives, without citation). John King, the cipher clerk in the foreign office, had been exposed as a Soviet spy in fall 1939.
67. Borovik, Philby Files, 167 (quoting KGB archives, without citation). German disinformation (about not attacking the USSR until after Britain’s fall) appears to have started early. Pavlov, “Sovetskaia voennaia razvedka,” 54 (no citation), Jan. 16, 1941.