Yet Fedorov tells me they’ll keep fighting. He says the Japanese Empire will simply not quit. In fact, that little tidbit he shared the other day was quite revealing. They have no word in their language to describe what we would call a military retreat. The word they use simply means “advance in a new direction.” And any withdrawal they make is simply viewed as a consolidation aimed at preparing for a new offensive.
So I must not underestimate my enemy here. I must think this through from a strategic standpoint, and in doing that, Fedorov has been most useful. He tells me that our occupation of Petropavlovsk may not be as important from a strategic standpoint as I had planned. I wanted to immediately offer those airfields to the Americans, but Fedorov says it is all of 1500 miles from that place to Tokyo, well outside the combat radius of their B-17 bombers, which is under 900 nautical miles with a basic bomb load, and under 700 nautical miles with a maximum bomb load. They could barely reach the northern tip of Hokkaido from there. How inconvenient. Beyond that, we both know weather conditions at Petropavlovsk are miserable most of the time. It’s one of the foggiest regions of the world.
If I wanted to hit Tokyo, I would have to possess bases in Southern Sakhalin, Karafuto to the Japanese, at least until the Americans produce their B-29 bomber, but that is some years off. Fedorov says that the ranges to any targets of value would require a very direct route, and it would force the bombers to fly right over Japanese held territory in Hokkaido, where they would most likely sustain very heavy losses. If I wanted to approach from the sea, then it would mean I have to hold islands in the southern Kuriles, as far south as Ostrov Iturup, which the Japanese call Etorofu, and that’s where my friend the Demon lives. Might it awaken one day here like that monster in the Sunda Strait? Not likely, but always something to think about. I can’t take anything for granted now, not in these Altered States.
So I need that island as an end point of my planned offensive, and I need to drive the Japanese completely off Sakhalin Island. I already have a toe hold in the north with troops I’ve moved in by airship, but that force isn’t big enough to conduct a real offensive south. It will take strong reinforcements, one or two more divisions from Magadan, and I can’t lift them until mid-May, when ice conditions ease up. Even so, the Japanese will reinforce from Hokkaido, so that is likely to be a very bitter fight when we get down south on Sakhalin Island.
As for the Kuriles, my amphibious landing capability is very limited. I have a small transport fleet, and I must protect those ships using Kirov’s AA defense shield at all costs. I thought the Americans could help out with additional shipping, but Fedorov tells me resources were very thin at this time in the war. I’ll prosecute these campaigns, and also have my younger self apply pressure on Northern Manchuria, but so much of our combat power has been sent to Sergei Kirov that we will have real limitations in this theater.
For the moment, I still have Kirov, and we’ll operate from Petropavlovsk, a nice Northern Pacific outpost. I know what the Japanese will be up to soon—Midway and their Aleutian Islands Operation. Perhaps the best way I can hurt them now is to insure that battle becomes the naval disaster it was for them, and help the American fleet get up a good head of steam here. They pulled off their Doolittle Raid, right on schedule. It’s amazing to see how the history walks in its own shadow. So Midway will be the next operation, or perhaps that preliminary carrier duel in the Coral Sea.
I’ve had Nikolin intercepting Japanese military signals for some time now, and Fedorov produced a nifty little program that decodes everything. It looks like Volkov didn’t even have the presence of mind to tell the Japanese the Americans were reading their code. Very well… How to best position Kirov to ambush the Japanese carriers? I thought they would react much more violently to our Kamchatka operation, as did Fedorov, but they’ve been very cagey. It appears they have learned to fear and respect the naval threat I now represent.
As soon as Nikolin informs me that signals traffic for the Japanese Midway operation picks up, I’ll take Kirov southeast from Petropavlovsk. About 1200 nautical miles should do the trick. That will put me a little north of the historical route of approach of their vaunted Kido Butai. This is going to be like shooting fish in a barrel. I can spare the Americans a lot of hand wrenching, take out all four carriers for them in one coordinated missile barrage, and then simply radio the US fleet the position of Yamamoto’s group and the invasion fleet approaching Midway. I’ll let the American carriers finish the job, and that will be that.
Yes, after Midway, Japanese naval power will be a shattered sword. I’ll see to that. Then perhaps they’ll pay just a little more attention when I renew my demands for the return of Vladivostok and Primorskiy Province. Fedorov thinks they’ll just dig their heels in as they did historically, but perhaps I can get them to consider a negotiated settlement with me. Can I afford to consider a separate peace here? How would the Americans view that?
After I win the Battle of Midway for them, they will most likely be very inclined to treat with me as an equal. At the moment, they are open to my proposal to provide airfields on Siberian territory, though Fedorov tells me they are doing so more as a means of opening a new Lend Lease route by air to Soviet Russia. I think I had better watch that closely. I should demand the lion’s share of any supplies that come over Siberian territory. After all, my support for Sergei Kirov has been more than generous.
Alright, it now looks like I can expect the decisive turning point in all this within 30 days or so—Midway. After that it is merely a matter of holding Japan’s feet to the fire until they yelp with so much pain that they will make the concessions I demand of them. After they lose their precious carrier fleet, they may not be so eager to have me as an active belligerent on their northern flank. If I get what I want, then the Americans can handle the rest, and I’ll focus my energy on resettling Primorskiy Province and supporting the Soviets. And I mustn’t forget Ivan Volkov.
He smiled now, thinking of the recent forced withdrawal Volkov made from his Trans-Volga bridgehead. Strange, he thought. This time the Germans got into Moscow, and even took most of that city, but the Soviets still pulled off that amazing Winter Counteroffensive—thanks to the three Siberian Shock Armies I sent to Georgie Zhukov. If I had them here, and had adequate shipping, I could retake Sakhalin Island and the Kuriles in a heartbeat.
So where is the Eastern Front likely to go now? Fedorov thinks the Germans will operate in the south. They already have the Crimea, though the Soviets are still holed up in Sevastopol. Fedorov thinks they will plan and execute an offensive something like their Fall Blau, Operation Blue. That was the drive that took them all the way to Stalingrad—Volgograd now. Sergei Kirov will not give that city up without a major battle, so that is where the real action will be as soon as the weather and ground conditions permit.
I’m told the Germans are introducing new tank designs, and much earlier than they did in the real history. I wonder if Volkov is behind all that? Tyrenkov tells me that the British have a new heavy tank in North Africa as well. It also fought in Syria, and stopped the German intervention there cold, so it must be very good. Yet my intelligence Chief has been unable to get me any real hard information on this development. I must light a fire under him about that.