Krassner turned slightly to face Henri.
“What do you think these military actions are about?”
“Sir, I think these incursions are testing our response times, our response procedures, and our response strength. Overall, they’re testing our response, or wearing out our vigilance while testing our response.”
Seiden looked away briefly to hide his irritation. The incursions analysis was not completely finalized. Yet she was venturing a non-substantiated hypothesis, the exact opposite of what they had discussed on their way in. Well aware of that, Henri swallowed hard and mentally prepared to walk on thin ice. Whatever the risk for her career, Krassner needed to know the facts ASAP. It was an acceptable risk, if she were to be proven wrong. Much better than taking the risk of informing Krassner a few days too late.
“What for?” Krassner asked.
“Nothing good, that’s for sure,” she blurted. Without turning her head, she caught Seiden flashing an angry glance toward her.
“That’s an understatement,” Krassner commented. “Can you venture some guesses?”
“Umm… sure. I think they could be testing our response to figure out where and how to conduct a first strike. That’s one theory. Another theory is that they could be conducting these territorial displays of aggression to distract us, while they’re looking to launch ballistic missiles. The missiles scenario is covered in my report. In addition, a third scenario is that they could be doing these close-call incursions in the hope that someone on our side gets nervous and engages by accident. Although, in all fairness, I don’t see them caring too much about who started it, or who’s to blame. Abramovich is beyond that. He just wants vengeance for the Crimea sanctions and the public humiliation they brought him.”
“If you were to choose one scenario, which one do you think is the most plausible?”
She hesitated a little before answering, wondering, as many other people had wondered lately, how sure she was. Very.
“I’d have to say scenario two, sir. I’d have to go with the nuclear-strike scenario.”
Silence fell thick, lingering for a few seconds that seemed like hours. Krassner opened the report and briefly browsed through it, making a quick note on one of the pages.
Then he looked up at Henri again.
“What do you think of my technology advisor’s opinion, with respect to the new cold war? Do you think he has a point?”
She hesitated, not sure whether the question was directed at her or at Seiden.
“Can you venture a guess which technologies would be more interesting to acquire or develop to consolidate our offensive and defensive positions?”
Krassner was looking straight at her, and so was Seiden, who nodded discreetly.
“Mr. President, I don’t have this analysis completed. I can look into this issue and prepare a report in a matter of days.”
“You’re an analyst, right? Then analyze, speculate with us. Let’s hear what you think.”
Krassner wasn’t going to give her any room to maneuver out of the situation. She might as well use the opportunity to tell him what she thought. Henri took a deep breath before speaking, reminding herself to slow her machine-gun verbalization to an easier-to-follow delivery rhythm.
“Mr. President, I think technology should be a much higher focus for the US military. Should have been would be the right way to put it. We need to allow innovation to penetrate our weapons systems, aircraft, communications, everything technology.
“The backbone of our Air Force is based on thirty- to forty-year-old concepts. The fifth-generation jets are coming into service way too slow. So slowly, they’re already somewhat out-of-date by the time they become operational. We fly the same planes as we did thirty years ago. Maybe they’re not thirty years old, but their concepts are. Yet most of us can’t stomach having a car older than eight years.”
“Enough,” Seiden whispered into her ear, barely audible. She clammed up promptly.
“Not at all, let her continue,” Krassner said.
She cleared her throat, suddenly constricted by seeing how stiff the president’s military advisor seemed. His pursed lips, flanked by two deep ridges formed around his mouth by an expression of offended consternation, were conveying a clear message. Drilling, unforgiving eyes focused on hers with an intensity she hadn’t encountered too often. She decided to lay off the fighter jets for a while.
“We put satellites into orbit at roughly five to seven times the cost that other countries spend to do the same thing. Private entrepreneurs can figure out how to build rockets and move cargo into space cheaper and faster than NASA.”
She paused for a few seconds, waiting to see if they wanted her to continue. Krassner made an inviting gesture with his hand.
“Did you know that European countries are significantly more advanced in their search for clean energy? They are decades ahead of us. The list can continue, but the bottom line is that our traditional resistance to change has cost us dearly in terms of progress. The weapons we build are clunky, obsolete and carry huge price tags. They’re not efficient; they don’t make use of modern technologies, light materials, process innovation (like three-dimensional printing), or materials innovation, such as carbon fiber molding. The Chinese have already 3D-printed an apartment building and are manufacturing light jets made from carbon fiber: light, maneuverable, and fuel-efficient. Yet we build the same clunky rust buckets designed in the fifties, so I would say yes, your advisor was definitely right. Technology will definitely play a role in future war strategy, from more perspectives than just cyber warfare. By the way, I think we’re actually doing fairly well in cyber warfare. At least, courtesy of the NSA, we seem to be better prepared in that area.”
“Please continue,” Krassner said. “What would you do?”
“Well, we did make some progress in the past decades, not much, but we’ve made some. Unmanned flight, stealth technologies, computing power, all these new technologies gave us immense strategic advantages. We just need to continue on this path. For each area, we should drive innovation before we spend trillions more ineffectively on antiquated technology. I’d also focus on revamping NORAD and our antimissile defense; it might come in handy sooner than we’d like. We also need to observe more, to find out what’s out there, to, well,” she chuckled slightly, thinking of paraphrasing a known movie title, “to spy hard. For many years, we’ve been focused on GWOT and forgot all our other enemies. Global war on terror must continue, but we need to redeploy in other areas.” Seeing Seiden’s consternated look, she added quickly, “In my humble opinion.”
Krassner smiled.
“Thank you for your candor and original thoughts; they’ll keep us busy for a while.” He turned slightly and looked toward Seiden. “Director Seiden, as soon as the intrusions analysis is complete, I want it on my desk. Let’s talk strategic response immediately; get it set up.”
Krassner walked briskly out of the conference room, followed closely by his two advisors and his assistant. Seiden and Henri left immediately after them, heading for the parking garage.
Alone with Seiden in the car, she allowed herself to take a deep breath.
“Sir, am I fired?”
“Not sure yet,” Seiden replied without a trace of humor in his voice. “This wasn’t like any other presidential briefing I have attended, that’s for sure. Put some numbers together to substantiate your theories on those Russian incursions. Write your report, do the most thorough work you’re capable of. Ideally, do that before presenting to me, to anyone, especially the president. But in this case, keep me posted as you go, tell me what you find, as soon as you find it.”