«Nuclear Autumn» takes it for granted that the Nuclear Winter theory is right. It shows one of the possible consequences. A very likely one, I fear.
«They’re bluffing,» said the President of the United States.
«Of course they’re bluffing,» agreed her science advisor. «They have to be.»
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, a grizzled old infantry general, looked grimly skeptical.
For a long, silent moment they faced each other in the cool, quiet confines of the Oval Office. The science advisor looked young and handsome enough to be a television personality, and indeed had been one for a while before he allied himself with the politician who sat behind the desk. The President looked younger than she actually was, thanks to modern cosmetics and a ruthless self-discipline. Only the general seemed to be old, a man of an earlier generation, gray-haired and wrinkled, with light brown eyes that seemed sad and weary.
«I don’t believe they’re bluffing,» he said. «I think they mean exactly what they say—either we cave in to them or they launch their missiles.»
The science advisor gave him his most patronizing smile. «General, they have to be bluffing. The numbers prove it.»
«The only numbers that count,» said the general, «are that we have cut our strategic ballistic missile force by half since this Administration came into office.»
«And made the world that much safer,» said the President. Her voice was firm, with a sharp edge to it.
The general shook his head. «Ma’am, the only reason I have not tendered my resignation is that I know full well the nincompoop you intend to appoint in my place.»
The science advisor laughed. Even the President smiled at the old man.
«The Soviets are not bluffing,» the general repeated. «They mean exactly what they say.»
With a patient sigh, the science advisor explained, «General, they cannot—repeat, cannot—launch a nuclear strike at us or anyone else. They know the numbers as well as we do. A large nuclear strike, in the three-thousand-megaton range, will so damage the environment that the world will be plunged into a Nuclear Winter. Crops and animal life will be wiped out by months of subfreezing temperatures. The sky will be dark with soot and grains of pulverized soil. The sun will be blotted out. All life on Earth will die.»
The general waved an impatient hand. «I know your story. I’ve seen your presentations.»
«Then how can the Russians attack us, when they know they’ll be killing themselves even if we don’t retaliate?»
«Maybe they haven’t seen your television specials. Maybe they don’t believe in Nuclear Winter.»
«But they have to!» said the science advisor. «The numbers are the same for them as they are for us.»
«Numbers,» grumbled the general.
«Those numbers describe reality,» the science advisor insisted. «And the men in the Kremlin are realists. They understand what Nuclear Winter means. Their own scientists have told them exactly what I’ve told you.»
«Then why did they insist on this hot-line call?»
Spreading his hands in the gesture millions had come to know from his television series, the science advisor replied, «They’re reasonable men. Now that they know nuclear weapons are unusable, they are undoubtedly trying to begin negotiations to resolve our differences without threatening nuclear war.»
«You think so?» muttered the general.
The President leaned back in her swivel chair. «We’ll find out what they want soon enough,» she said. «Kolgoroff will be on the hot line in another minute or so.»
The science advisor smiled at her. «I imagine he’ll suggest a summit meeting to negotiate a new disarmament treaty.»
The general said nothing.
The President touched a green square on the keypad built into the desk’s surface. A door opened and three more people—a man and two women —entered the Oval Office: the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, and the National Security Advisor.
Exactly when the digital clock on the President’s desk read 12:00:00, the large display screen that took up much of the wall opposite her desk lit up to reveal the face of Yuri Kolgoroff, General Secretary of the Communist Party and President of the Soviet Union. He was much younger than his predecessors had been, barely in his midfifties, and rather handsome in a Slavic way. If his hair had been a few shades darker and his chin just a little rounder, he would have looked strikingly like the President’s science advisor.
«Madam President,» said Kolgoroff, in flawless American-accented English, «it is good of you to accept my invitation to discuss the differences between our two nations.»
«I am always eager to resolve differences,» said the President.
«I believe we can accomplish much.» Kolgoroff smiled, revealing large white teeth.
«I have before me,» said the President, glancing at the computer screen on her desk, «the agenda that our ministers worked out …»
«There is no need for that,» said the Soviet leader. «Why encumber ourselves with such formalities?»
The President smiled. «Very well. What do you have in mind?»
«It is very simple. We want the United States to withdraw all its troops from Europe and to dismantle NATO. Also, your military and naval bases in Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines must be disbanded. Finally, your injunctions against the Soviet Union concerning trade in high-technology items must be ended.»
The President’s face went white. It took her a moment to gather the wits to say, «And what do you propose to offer in exchange for these … concessions?»
«In exchange?» Kolgoroff laughed. «Why, we will allow you to live. We will refrain from bombing your cities.»
«You’re insane!» snapped the President.
Still grinning, Kolgoroff replied, «We will see who is sane and who is mad. One minute before this conversation began, I ordered a limited nuclear attack against every NATO base in Europe, and a counterforce attack against the ballistic missiles still remaining in your silos in the American Midwest.»
The red panic light on the President’s communications console began flashing frantically.
«But that’s impossible!» burst the science advisor. He leaped from his chair and pointed at Kolgoroff’s image in the big display screen. «An attack of that size will bring on Nuclear Winter! You’ll be killing yourselves as well as us!»
Kolgoroff smiled pityingly at the scientist. «We have computers also, Professor. We know how to count. The attack we have launched is just below the threshold for Nuclear Winter. It will not blot out the sun everywhere on Earth. Believe me, we are not such fools as you think.»
«But …»
«But,» the Soviet leader went on, smile vanished and voice iron-hard, «should you be foolish enough to launch a counterstrike with your remaining missiles or bombers, that will break the camel’s back, so to speak. The additional explosions of your counterstrike will bring on Nuclear Winter.»
«You can’t be serious!»
«I am deadly serious,» Kolgoroff replied. Then a faint hint of his smile returned. «But do not be afraid. We have not targeted Washington. Or any of your cities, for that matter. You will live—under Soviet governance.»
The President turned to the science advisor. «What should I do?»
The science advisor shook his head.
«What should I do?» she asked the others seated around her.
They said nothing. Not a word.
She turned to the general. «What should I do?»
He got to his feet and headed for the door. Over his shoulder he answered, «Learn Russian.»