“Our losses have actually been higher than that, sir,” replied Stanton. “The recent fighting in Cincinnati and outside of Providence has been very heavy. We’ve lost slightly more than ninety thousand men permanently removed from service in the last ninety days. Those losses include men killed or wounded so severely as to require discharge; the large captures of our men from Kirby Smith’s and Pemberton’s divisions on the Wabash; and men deceased or incapacitated by camp diseases.”
Davis did the calculations in his head. “That means we could expect to lose three hundred sixty thousand men lost in a full year of campaigning. At the rate we’re going it might take us two or three years to put down the Rebellion. That’s upward of a million casualties on our side and a similar number on theirs. All the while we’ll have the British looking for excuses to intervene ‘in the name of humanity.’ We’ll have our own Southern Rights men agitating against us, and we’ll have the newspapers doing what newspapers always do, which is to carp and complain and stir up dissent.”
Davis looked directly at Stanton. “Can we win this war?”
“We are winning it,” Stanton replied firmly. “The Rebel incursions into the countryside of Missouri and Maryland in no way compensate for their loss of St. Louis, Cincinnati, Boston, and Portland. They are going to lose Providence too, when starvation forces its capitulation. By taking the New England ports we’ve removed their navy from the war. The loss of those ports has squeezed their commerce into one overloaded railroad through Montreal. They’re being squeezed and bled.”
“The squeezing is much less than it should be with the British offering them protected communications routes through their Canadian back door,” protested Davis. “It’s one of many factors that make it so difficult for us. McClellan thought we had to win the war quickly or not at all. The people’s patience is wearing thin. All they see is casualties, debt, and consolidation of powers wielded by the national government. Many are asking why we are fighting the Rebels when we could have peace just by letting them go.”
Stanton folded his arms under his chin and closed his eyes. He carefully composed his thoughts, as he had learned to do in many courtrooms.
“Mr. President, we are fighting this war in several spheres: military, economic, political, and diplomatic. McClellan’s military plan to defeat the Rebels in ninety days has come up short, but the economic mobilization has produced the anticipated men and equipment. Even with our losses we’ll have five to six hundred thousand men in the field by next spring. With that many men under arms, opportunities are certain to present themselves for us to inflict defeats on the Rebels and gain territory at some points on the line.
“We are building an ocean-going armored navy — a navy powerful enough to make even the British cautious about intervening on behalf of the Rebels. We are building a riverine navy in the Mississippi Valley. We will be able to ascend the Ohio as far as Pittsburgh. That will give us a springboard to move against Cleveland. If the Rebels see their capital threatened they will have to pull back from other fronts.
“And don’t underestimate the difficulties the Rebels are facing. They are sustaining severe casualties too. Once attrition removes their most committed volunteers they’ll have to turn to conscription to force men into their armies. That will put their Democratic voters in an uproar. If the Republicans ever allow elections they might well be voted out of office and men amenable to returning to the Confederate Union elected to replace them. If they won’t permit elections they’ll run the risk of having to put down a rebellion by their disfranchised dissidents. Why should they be more able to withstand their internal stresses than we should be able to withstand ours?”
Davis still seemed skeptical. Stanton suddenly realized what needed to be done to calm his president’s anxieties.
“What we need to be doing now is planning for next year’s operations,” Stanton advised. “Let’s bring McClellan and Lee together to devise a master plan of military campaigns. Let’s organize a diplomatic mission to the Canadas and Britain by Secretary of State Seymour. We will considerably lessen the odds of British intervention if we make it plain that we have renounced our intentions to acquire their North American dominions and merely want to recover our own Rebel States. Let’s draw up a plan for the political reconstruction of the country. That will get the people on both sides to start looking beyond the war toward peace. Such reflections will strengthen us while weakening the Rebels.”
“How will it weaken the Rebels?”
“It will show them that we have a plan for administering the country after we put down the Rebellion. The plan may include redrawing state boundaries, such as consolidating the six New England states into a single state to eliminate ten of their Abolitionist senators from the Federal Congress. It may include some prohibitions on our slave owners from recovering slaves that escape to the Free States. Since that involves only three or four hundred slaves a year the simple solution is to tax the Free States to compensate the slave owners for the slaves that escape north.”
“That would be the fair way to handle it,” said Davis. “I wonder why nobody ever thought of proposing it?”
“Because people do not act wisely when their emotions are inflamed to passion,” replied Stanton. “After we have put down the rebellion and reunited the country we must demand a period of calm reflection on both sections. We must make it clear to the Free States that when they give up the Rebellion there will be a period of national reconciliation that will give a fair hearing to each section’s interests. There will be no inflammatory rhetoric from either the Southern Fire Eaters or the Northern Abolitionists.”
And if the extremists in both sections don’t learn to keep their mouths closed then I will make certain that they are confined to places where they will never be heard from again.
“And the most important thing is what you must do, Mr. President,” continued Stanton, fixing Davis firmly in his gaze. “ You must convince the people — North and South — that their future, and the destiny of all generations that follow us, depends upon this country remaining united. You must let them know that we will never have peace if the Free States gain their independence and ally themselves with the Europeans.”
Stanton raised his arms. “Mr. President, the Confederate Union is not perfect. I do not believe that slavery or an excessive reverence for States Rights is in the character of what the Founders intended us to become. But, by God, this is our common country! We are all Americans, and we must remain Americans. Let us reunite and then we will adjust our differences among ourselves. We can do this as fellow citizens, but never as aliens across a hostile border. Mr. President, you must make the people understand that! Lee and McClellan and I can win this war for you militarily. But you must win it politically. You must win it for the present generation and all generations of Americans to follow. The future of mankind itself depends upon the character of your leadership during this trial by fire!”
Davis nodded vigorously, showing Stanton that he had regained his confidence in seeing the war through to the victorious return of all the states to the Confederate Union.
“Write to Lee and McClellan,” said Davis. “Find out when the fronts are quiet enough for them to leave their commands and get here to meet with us for a week. We’ll figure a way to defeat the Rebels. We will do it together.”
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