“Yes, sir, most certainly. Because they deployed these ICBMs far away from the coast, near the Russian border, it would take a long time for us to reach them.”
“Long time, as in…?”
“Depends on the strike method, sir, but assuming that we were using ballistic missiles ourselves, twenty plus minutes to reach the target.”
“And twenty minutes is a long time?”
“It’s a long enough time for them to realize that we are attacking and respond accordingly, sir. Especially with their island bases and the air defense they’ve got stacked up. They have three islands in the Spratleys, and one in the Parcels, that they’ve converted into military bases, with runways long enough to land anything in their arsenal, fuel and munitions, and SAM batteries. They have the South China Sea dominated with anti-air capability.”
General Schwartz looked at Susan. “I feel like I’m going back in time — back to the good old days of the Soviet threat. Thank you all for this warm feeling.”
Susan looked at the analysts. “That’s one aspect of their triad. What about submarine and air-launched-nuclear capability? Have we noticed any change in their strategic air and submarine missile boat activity? And how big of a threat are those assets?”
The nuclear weapons analyst said, “The Chinese nuclear missile boats aren’t nearly as capable as our own. They only have a few type 94s. That’s the closest thing they have to our Ohio-class subs. But theirs are noisy. We generally know where they are at all times. As for the air component, they do have over one hundred and twenty strategic bombers. But they aren’t able to reach the continental US. The Chinese are reportedly working on a competitor to the B-2 Spirit, but we haven’t seen it fly yet.”
The Chinese military expert said, “Near the coast, as we previously went over, military activity has been kept to a minimum. But PLA Air Force activity is high at many of the inland bases. Susan, they’re still training around the clock over there. Maybe the Chinese president’s orders haven’t trickled down yet, or…”
David said, “Or, maybe they’re getting another set of orders.”
David sat alone in the CIA cafeteria. He had brought his own lunch. Ham and cheese sandwich, a plastic bag of yellow corn tortilla chips, and a Tupperware container of carrot sticks.
“Mr. Manning, how are you liking the new job?” General Schwartz stood over him. Like the trained Ranger that he was, he had approached with speed and stealth.
David started to stand.
“Please, keep your seat. Mind if I join you?”
“Of course, sir. And the job is going well, sir, thank you.” David wondered if he was using too many “sirs.” Probably his Navy training, or his admiral father’s discipline shining through.
The general sat in the empty chair across from David. They were the only ones at their table.
“Susan speaks highly of you. And you’ve caught the director’s eye. I might not be a CIA guy, but I’ve learned a thing or two about upward mobility in my day. The director of your agency is probably a good one to impress.”
David reddened. “I hope they are happy with my work. To be honest, it is somewhat similar to the type of research I had done at In-Q-Tel.”
“Really? I thought you researched technology there.” The general took a bite of his meal, a spring mix salad with slices of grapes, walnuts, and croutons. Everyone was a healthy eater nowadays.
“That’s right, sir. I researched technology. Weapons and weapons systems. Sometimes cyberweapons. Sometimes aircraft or missiles. It was interesting. I got to be a jack of all trades. But in order to do the job well, we had to research what our adversaries were capable of — and what they were working on.”
The general nodded. “I see.”
“In a way, I’m doing the same job now. The only difference is the timeline.”
“How’s that?”
“At In-Q-Tel, I was looking at what our potential enemies might be doing in the next five to ten years. Here, I’m looking at what they might be doing in the next few days or weeks. It’s the same game, just a different time scale that I’m looking out over.”
General Schwartz smiled. “Strategy versus tactics. Some would argue that the two are the same, just on a different scale.”
They ate their lunch and made small talk for a while. David told the general about his sister, Victoria, and how she was still deployed to the Eastern Pacific. “She isn’t sure when they’ll return home.”
“No, I imagine she wouldn’t be. My guess is very few people know the answer to that question right now.”
David said, “I can’t help feeling that we’re all waiting for something, sir.”
“For the other shoe to drop? I think a lot of us have the same feeling. We were just attacked by the only military on the planet that outsizes our own. Whatever the politicians say they intend to do, history would demonstrate that hostilities would increase, not decrease, after a string of events like we just had.”
“I agree, sir. In my research, I’ve seen a few indicators that give me concern.”
“Like what?” The flag officer checked his wristwatch. “Care to show me?”
The general was easy to speak to. He didn’t have that stuffy, all-knowing manner of conversation that many senior leaders did. His speech pattern was no-nonsense. Gruff at times. But mostly friendly and down to earth. Like he hadn’t forgotten what it was like to be working in the trenches.
David didn’t want to overstep his authority. Susan was his direct superior, and she reported to the general. But since the general and he were already talking…
Schwartz smiled. “What’s the matter?”
“Nothing, General. I just would have prepared something for you if I’d known—”
“Yeah, I know that. But we need to get away from that bullshit. I don’t want you guys having three meetings of preparation before you have one meeting with me or the director. We just don’t have the time.” He stood up, using a napkin to wipe his hands. “Now let’s go.”
They walked back through the hallways of the CIA headquarters to the SILVERSMITH team spaces. David took a seat at his cubicle, and the general pulled up a chair from the empty desk next to his.
“Now you guys just told me that you think the Chinese might not be fully complying with their stand-down claims. That right?”
“Yes, sir.”
“So what else might we look at to verify what their true intentions are?”
David said, “Sir, I’ve been looking at a few things. Leading indicators, I call them.”
“Leading indicators for what?”
David looked uneasy. “I don’t want to get ahead of myself, sir.”
“Son, in the past few weeks, you have been on the receiving end of a Chinese espionage operation, and our nation has been openly attacked by Chinese military and cyber assets. You are not getting ahead of yourself. In my opinion, we’re all playing catch-up.”
David turned to his computer and opened a folder. He pointed to the screen. “This is something I’ve been looking at. When Susan and I briefed you earlier, we told you that we were seeing mixed messages from the Chinese military analysis. Some military assets are standing down. Some are increasing their levels of activity.”
“Tracking.”
It took David a second to register that this was Army slang for “I understand.”
David said, “So I wanted to check out some leading indicators that might be harder to conceal. Leading indicators that would tell us if they were preparing for a large-scale war.”