Now the Caliphate-CAC relationship had become strained. After a promising start, the Third Frontier War had become a disaster for the two allied Powers. The war left the Alliance as the preeminent Power, with a level of dominance unseen since the Unification Wars. That position had since been seriously eroded by rebellions and internal strife but, by most accounts, the Alliance still clung to the number one spot among Earth’s Superpowers.
The Treaty of Mars had ended the Third Frontier War. It had also cost the Caliphate a dozen systems and a huge percentage of its resource production. The war had been over for seven years, and the CAC was beginning to recover both economically and militarily. But the Caliphate was still mired in a massive economic depression, and its armed forces had only begun to rebuild. The CAC had clearly moved into the number two position among the Powers, and the Caliphate had sunk to third…and was struggling to keep from falling into the second tier.
Although the Caliphate and the CAC remained allies, considerable resentment had built up, and for the first time in a century there was a real possibility of a realignment among the Powers. The diplomats had been working furiously, seeking whatever gain could be had. The CAC was particularly worried about any cooperation between the Alliance and the Caliphate, which would be a grave threat, especially since the Pacific Rim Coalition was almost certain to join any such lineup. That concern was the primary reason the CAC’s master spy had called this meeting. Presenting the Alliance as a likely aggressor, whether true or not, was helpful to CAC diplomacy.
“Chairman Al’Karesh is quite correct as to my reasons for asking you all here.” Li An looked out over her guests, glancing at each for an instant before continuing. “We have recently become aware of very alarming activity by the Alliance military. Our analysts have reviewed the data and, while it is clearly not normal, it does not seem to be conventionally consistent with pending military action against any of the other Powers.” She took a short breath. “Candidly, we do not know what they are doing.”
“I want to express my own gratitude to you for extending this outreach. I, too, have become quite concerned about recent Alliance activity. Their previously purely defensive deployments now seem to be undergoing a major reshuffling. We have no reasonable conclusions on the reasons for this as of yet.” Igor Tankovich was the Director of the Russian-Indian Confederacy’s spy organization…one of them, at least. The Russians had a history of cloak and dagger operations, and they employed several competing agencies. Bitter rivals for the most part, they tended to spend as much time fencing with each other as spying on external Powers. Tankovich was the head of GRU, arguably the most powerful and far-reaching of the competing organizations.
Li An smiled and nodded deferentially to Tankovich. He was the only person in the room older than her, though she had to admit he still looked pretty good, even if he had put on at least 30 kilos. In many ways, he was the most important to her of all those present. That fact had less to do with the Russian’s abilities than with the realities of international power politics. The Russian-dominated RIC was definitely in play, more so than any of the other Powers. Its position had leaned slightly toward the Alliance for many years, but the power realignment after the war had caused considerable concern in St. Petersburg.
She had spent an enormous amount of time since the war analyzing the relative strengths and positions of the Powers. There was going to be another war eventually; nothing had resolved the fundamental disputes between the nations. The Alliance had a massive frontier, with extensive access to unexplored space, but many of the Powers were becoming hemmed in, denied access to warp gates leading to new systems. Conflict was inevitable.
She was worried about the Caliphate, but only moderately. In the end, there was just too much bad blood between them and the Alliance. The two Powers, and their predecessor states before them, had been enemies for 200 years. Both governments had employed extensive propaganda campaigns, inflaming nationalist and racial hatreds to rally support for the fight. And the Alliance held a large number of ex-Caliphate colonies…holdings the Caliph wanted back. It was extremely unlikely the respective governments could overcome all of this and become allies, at least in the near term. In the end, the Caliphate would side with the CAC.
The German-dominated CEL and Europa Federalis were both essentially useless as allies. With the unending feud between the two, alliance with one meant war with the other. There was no gain to be had from pursuing either, so Li had discounted both in her analysis.
The South American Empire was barely clinging to Superpower status. Blocked off from access to new systems, its tiny collection of colonies wasn’t enough to prop up its bankrupt terrestrial economy. The empire had sided with the Caliphate-CAC bloc in the last war, and they’d suffered massively as a result. They were unlikely to openly join any side in a new war, at least not until it seemed almost certain they were aligning themselves with the victors.
The Martian Confederation would never side with the CAC. Li An had established a relationship with Roderick Vance, helping the Martian’s chief spy in his manipulation of the Alliance rebellions. By his own admission, Vance even owed her a favor. But she didn’t kid herself that there was any real chance of bringing the Confederation in any war alongside the CAC. Her efforts there would be to maintain neutrality and keep the Martians out of any new conflict.
That left the RIC as the only significant Power really up for grabs. They had been marginally allied with the Alliance in the war, but their involvement had been half-hearted and limited to a few support units. If the Confederacy joined the CAC’s bloc and provided its full support, it could make the difference in the next conflict.
“Igor, my old friend, you are quite correct. The Alliance activity is bewildering. I do, however, have two working hypotheses.” She had known the ancient Russian for a very long time. Indeed, a lifetime ago the two had briefly been lovers. Li An had discovered Tankovich’s weakness for Asian women, and she’d used it to her full advantage. The dalliance didn’t long outlive the needs of her operation, however. Though she’d moderately enjoyed the Russian, Li An’s sexual preferences ran more toward women than men. It was something she’d kept private over the years…the CAC was a conservative society, and it was particularly difficult for a woman to reach the heights of power. She didn’t need her personal affairs being used against her. A few of her lovers with less than ideal discretion had been the victims of unfortunate accidents, but the secret had been largely kept. Even those who knew about it were afraid to cross the CAC’s deadly spymaster.
Tankovich leaned back in his chair and looked across the room at Li An. His mind drifted back across the decades, fondly remembering his host’s extraordinary seduction skills. She’d gotten the better of him on that operation, but he didn’t care. It had been worth it. “I suspected that you would have some insight to offer. Are you prepared to share with us?”
“Of course, Igor. That is why I asked you all to come here.” She looked around the table and took a breath. “Our first theory is that the Alliance has discovered a previously undetected warp gate leading from one of their Rim worlds to a strategically sensitive location elsewhere. As you are all aware, the Alliance used such a discovery to great advantage during the recent war.” She glanced over at Al’Karesh as she delivered the pointed barb, repaying the Caliphate spy for his earlier rudeness. The Alliance had used a newly-located warp gate to seize the Gliese 250 system and, subsequently, a massive sector along the Caliphate frontier. She smiled almost imperceptibly as Al’Karesh squirmed. The Gliese affair was not a welcome topic of conversation in the Caliphate.