“Sound like us Democrats,” Roosevelt commented and Stimson and King both laughed.
Nomura did not understand the joke, but was delighted to see his American hosts laughing.
The Ambassador decided then and there not to hold back. Quietly, he started to tell the Americans all he knew, and he was a sufficiently experienced negotiator to know that starting high never hurt.
“In the next seven days, the Imperial Japanese Navy will sink the Royal Navy’s Repulse and the Prince of Wales.
This really took the breath away of the three Americans, who suddenly had a new-found respect for this little Japanese man with the round face and even rounder black spectacles.
“By the Lunar New Year, the Japanese Army will have captured Singapore and Hong Kong.”
As not one of the three listeners had the vaguest idea of what the hell the Lunar New Year was, King guessed and quietly asked,
“So, by the first of March?”
Nomura said, “Yes, or perhaps a little before that.”
Stimson shook his head,
“I am sorry, Ambassador, but I frankly cannot see it. While the British are weak, their base in Singapore is huge and it is impregnable and it has 15 inch guns protecting it. I’ve been there—I’ve seen the guns.”
Nomura said, “So have I.”
“And Secretary Stimson, we have a number of our agents in Singapore. Actually, we have three Chinese agents in the quartermaster’s office that keeps careful count of all the shells in the armory. Almost all of the shells for these massive guns are armor-piercing, which are extremely effective at piecing warships’ armor but which are useless against infantry. The British are defending Singapore in precisely the same way that they prepared for the battles of 1916.”
The penny dropped.
“Fuck,” said the always verbose King.
“Of course. Yes. Fucking brilliant—Somme redux,” King could not contain himself.
Nomura nodded.
King, like Nomura, was a diligent student of war and the all-too-common disasters caused by massive misunderstandings by distant and remote generals (and admirals)—“Send Up Three And Four Pence, We’re Going To A Dance,” was a message received from the British front in 1916, when the actual message had been, “Send Up Reinforcements, We’re Going To Advance.”
As King explained to the other two Americans, on the front line at the river Somme the British had fired over one million shells from the “heavies” in the weeks leading up to the 1st of July in 1916 (And three months later, the British armament companies who made these one million shells quietly paid two million Pounds to a Swiss bank in royalties to the German companies holding the fuse patents for these shells.).
The 25-year-old sepia films and photographs showed these shells exploding in the desolate moonscape of the northern part of the Western Front. Unfortunately for the British, the German line at the Somme was the best fortified of the entire of the Western front: the hard, dry, chalky soil of the area—excellent for Champagne grapes—was perfect for deep fortifications. And the Germans, ever the clever engineers, had constructed massive dugouts that were impervious to the shells the British lobbed over; actually many of the second-line dugouts had carpets, “the electric,” and even gramophone record players.
The two commanders—Haig and Rawlinson—had conveniently decided to ignore all reports that the German positions were still completely intact. Dozens of British raiding parties had suffered death and agony in the days and weeks leading up to the assault to find the truth. “Not possible with a million shells,” was the accepted wisdom as the attitude was, “let-us-not-allow-the-facts-to-interfere-with-the-plan.”
In fact, Haig described the first hours of the battle as: “Very successful attack this morning… All went like clockwork… The battle is going very well for us and already the Germans are surrendering freely. The enemy is so short of men that he is collecting them from all parts of the line. Our troops are in wonderful spirits and full of confidence.”
But the actual outcome was what the angel of truth had always predicted: the greatest military disaster in history; according to one estimate, of the 100,000 British troops that went over the top that fateful day, only 35,000 returned.
The rest were alone, terrified and dying in horrible pain. Many of these brave young men pulled themselves into one of the countless shell holes and slowly waited for the end of their suffering, thinking of the homes and families they would never see again and of the laughter and happiness they would never again enjoy. A few got out their little Bibles and hoped for a moment of solace. When the rain started in the early afternoon on that terrible Saturday, the shell holes slowly filled with water and the final ignominy came to many of these gloriously brave—but terribly led—eager young soldiers as they slowly drowned in their shell holes, shivering from the cold, alone, discarded, and in agonizing pain for hours before a slow death ended their sufferings. And all for nothing—no ground was gained. The two commanders lied and boasted of a “limited success.”
“Of course, I am now a traitor to my country—I have told you and you can call Mr. Churchill on that telephone on your desk, Mr. President.”
“Yes, I could do that, Kishi.”
The moment the President of the United States of America called him “Kishi” for a second time, the Ambassador suddenly realized that he could be talking to a potential ally.
Stimson asked insistently, “OK, Kishi, but what about our Philippines possessions? What guarantees can you give that they will not suffer the same fate as our Hawaiian possessions? Or that you will not attack America proper?”
Nomura decided to increase the stakes,
“Mr. President, let’s go in a time machine and advance 100 years. In 2041, who will be your allies? The British Empire, the Bolsheviks, the Chinese Nationalists, the French, the Dutch, the Germans, the Japanese? Who?”
“What do you think, Mr. Ambassador?” Stimson asked.
“Well, that is what makes Japan last: for we Japanese, ten years is just a quarter of an hour, as we think in terms of centuries. Here is an example: there is a famous Japanese whisky maker based in Osaka. This company decided to branch out and start making and selling beer. It took this company 45 years before it made a profit from its beer making. Is there an American company that would have the patience and sense of purpose to wait 45 years before making a profit? I suspect not.
“We Japanese think that maintaining our cultural purity is the most important thing we can do. We have no colored colonies to pollute the Japanese spirit of frugality, hard work and community. Here is an example of how we Japanese work as a team: after the Great Kantō earthquake in 1923, over 95% of all wallets found were returned intact to the police so the money could be returned to its rightful owner; to do otherwise would be dishonorable for us Japanese. And the Japanese spirit of teamwork and working together is unequalled in the world. And this is solely because of the purity of our culture. Other countries hate us for this, they envy us for it, but this is the Japanese way, and we Japanese believe this is what will sustain us over the next 500 years. Remember, our Emperor’s family dates from 11 February 660 BC—that’s 660 years before the western Christ. Of course, there will be disasters, and defeats, and mistakes, but we Japanese work together as a team, as we always have and will always do so.”
The Ambassador changed tack,
“Predicting the past is far easier than the other way, but I would say the millstone for the European countries is their colonies. As a young man, Mr. Churchill was part of the last cavalry charge of his empire. And that is the way he still thinks—as a European colonist, in spite of him being technically an American because of his American mother. But these colonies are very much a two-edged sword. In this respect, Germany was actually the winner of Versailles: by stripping Germany of all its African colonies, none of these African natives could ever claim German paternity. And looking at Africa as a single battle ground on its own, the Germans could easily have taken over all of the Dark Continent. You’ll recall the brilliant hit-and-run campaign of Lettow Vorbeck. With just 15,000 men, he taunted and beat an Allied force of 400,000 men. He was a later-day John McNeill. With the likes of Lettow Vorbeck, Germany could easily have controlled most, if not all, of Africa. But, with Versailles came the complete evisceration of all these German colored colonies.”