“That is why we call it The Great Game. At most we who play The Great Game can make only a small ripple in the passage of time, a minor deviation in the great river of events. We play our hands in The Great Game and in doing so we give the flow of history a nudge here, a small prod there and herd things a little in the direction we want to go. And that is what has happened now.
“Today, the Triple Alliance is a little stronger than it was. We have shed blood, our own and that of others, together, we have shed blood for each other. We have had our mettle tested and we have each seen we can depend upon the others. A potentially serious weakness in our organization and procedures has been revealed and dealt with. Our new Permanent Military Council will ensure that operations are properly planned and evaluated before our forces are committed. The Seer was right, our attempts to conduct military operations without clearly defined command authority was a recipe for disaster. We made a mistake and it has cost us dearly. We must make certain we do not repeat it.
“More good news is that a shaky part of our territory has been shored up and supported. Burma is more stable now as a result of our actions. Burma is now independent yet has become a member of ASEAN so is still a part of our alliance. That is the best of both worlds. Also, we have tied the Americans a little more to us. This crisis saw the Americans commit their military in our support. In doing so they forced the Chipanese to take a step back. The American B-60s broke the back of the Shan States Army and that buys us time to rebuild the country and bring it under a firm rule.
“As a result, Chipan is a little weaker than it was. There is more dissent between the Army and the Navy and they are having more trouble with the insurgencies in their country. The insurgency they face in Indo-China is growing with every month that passes and their pre-occupation with Burma means they have done little to counter it. The Vietnamese People's Liberation Army is well established now and rooting it out will be a major undertaking. Frankly, I doubt that Chipan can do it, their resources are more stretched and their commitments are greater than ever before.
“Most importantly, Masanobu Tsuji's plots have been exposed and he has lost face. Not for the first time I might add. His influence is weakened and that means that more reasonable people have a chance to make their voices heard. It is our understanding that more and more officers in the Chipanese armed forces are protesting against Masanobu Tsuji's grand designs and extravagant plots. They suggest it is time for Chipan to take stock of their capabilities and resources and scale their ambitions down to match their real abilities.
“But all of these developments are double-sided. The insurgency war in Burma has not ended, the Shan States Army was a reflection of real problems and real desires. They have been pushed back certainly, crippled, probably but not destroyed. They will have to go back to the initial stages of an insurgency and start over. Having learned lessons, they will do better next time.
“On our part, we now owe the Americans a serious debt and they will collect on it. Sooner I hope, rather than later, I do not wish to have that indebtedness hanging over our heads. The Chipanese have benefited from their failure also; if they listen to their voices that call for a cut-back of commitments and a reduction of imperial overstretch, they may yet come out of this stronger than they went in.
“The Americans have benefited also, they have shown once again that their bombers can go where they wish and do what they want. If anybody doubted that they could do so, such doubts have been dispelled. They have tested out some of their new doctrines and evaluated their new technologies. I tried to get The Seer to admit that was why they helped us but failed in that. It is a pity because admitting they had interests beyond supporting us would have reduced the debt we owe them.
“They have benefited politically as well. The tragic accident, and it really was an accident, there is no doubt of that, which befell John F Kennedy has given President LeMay a second term in office.” She paused slightly, she know Sir Eric believed she had been responsible for Kennedy's death even though she had not, it really had been a genuine accident, driving too fast on a wet road. “By the time of the next American election, the momentum of American policy will be so set that no radical changes will be possible. That is to the benefit of us all, of course. The one thing the world does not need now is a weak-willed or unstable America.
“America has done something else that is also very important for them. There were those who believed that America would only fight with nuclear weapons so if they could create a situation where such weapons could not be used, then America would be helpless. That was the calculation that lay at the heart of Masanobu Tsuji's planning. He attempted to use an insurgency to create a situation where we could be attacked without inviting American reprisals.
“For as long as the situation remained an insurgency, the Americans stayed uninvolved but when the Chipanese escalated the situation to involve their regular forces, the Americans acted. First they warned off the Chipanese Navy, then they destroyed the Chipanese regular units around Myitkyina. By using conventional rather than nuclear weapons on the Shan States Army, they demonstrated to the world that, while destroying enemies with nuclear weapons was their preferred option, they would use other solutions if the situation demanded. But their use of nuclear air-to-air missiles demonstrated that attacking SAC always brings about a nuclear response and that when SAC is around, nuclear weapons are always on the table as a viable threat.
“'The big winner over the last year has been Russia of course. They have peace now for the first time in almost twenty years. They now have their territory back under their own control yet their victory is also a matter of shading and degree. Their economy is wrecked, their country needs decades to rebuild and their casualties are beyond counting. Life will be hard in Russia for decades yet that too is a matter of degree. For where there is such hardship and such great tasks, there are also great opportunities for those with the wisdom to see them and the strength to take them. I think Russia will be the stronger for this ordeal but that strength will not be seen in your lifetimes.
“Even the military results are shaded. Field Marshal Model is leading his people out to the south, it is a military achievement that few other commanders could equal. Model may be a most hateful person but he is one hell of a fighting soldier. And he has left the Russians with the problem of southern provinces bubbling over with war and rebellion.
“'Our real enemy has been exposed also. The Russians releasing their report on the rise of The Caliphate have done us all a great service and we owe them a debt of honor that we must repay. The view The Caliphate has of the world, the kind of society they wish to introduce and their attitude to everybody who does not share their beliefs are all deeply disturbing. It is indeed most fortunate that we have been warned of the danger The Caliphate poses years before their emergence causes a situation that will be critical.
“So now we have time to plan, to make our first moves and to start the long process of deflecting history in our favor. The extra time the Russians have given us means we can plan properly and we can make small changes now that will bear great fruit in years to come. These will have more time to bring about their effects and will remove the need to make larger and more dangerous changes later. This must be our priority for the next few years, The Caliphate must not be allowed to grow in strength. They are being dealt their hand in The Great Game now and our part of the Game is to guess what cards they hold and work out how they will play them.