“People, what do you think?”
“Why Antarctica?” asked Air Force General Neil L Cooper.
Koon Wing Mui stepped forward. “We’ve investigated this,” she said, “it’s mainly political, but with a practical slant. In 2015, Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement with the five + one; limiting their potential nuclear weapons program.”
Admiral Nicolaj Kamov shook his head. She carried on.
“North Korea is not limited by an agreement but even they are curtailed to some extent by South Korea, Japan and the USA. But most of all by China.”
“So why Antarctica?” repeated Cooper.
“Sir, to use business speak, offshoring their nuclear activities helps out a lot for North Korea. For Iran, it gets them out from under the JCPA. It’s a very big risk but the regime hardliners would probably be willing to take that risk. Antarctica because it’s out of the way. Very hard to detect any work being carried out. Australia claims that part of the continent, but as you’d imagine they’re thin on the ground down there.”
“Where does the Mossad fit in?” asked Army General Sally Weingarten.
Koon shrugged. “We can’t say, but they probably got it from an informer.” Koon switched on the wall screen and cycled through to a map of Iran.
“This is the Iranian military nuclear site, Parchin just southeast of Tehran. They’d be involved in any clandestine operation.” She looked to Hobbs, who carried on.
“Israel watches them like a hawk for any nuclear activities. Our best guess is that the Mossad has an asset nearby.”
“What about South Korean assets?” asked General Cotton.
“Sir, the South Korean National Intelligence Service is looking carefully at the issue,” replied Koon, “they have nothing definite so far.”
“Let’s get some assets in the area,” said General Cotton. “Neil, get some birds into Guam. Nicolaj?”
“We’ll get more ships into the Far East and the Indian Ocean.”
KOON LOOKED TO HOBBS. “Simon, we should lay it out.”
Hoobs looked down undecided. He turned to her, gave her a weak smile and nodded.
“Go on.”
Koon cleared her throat.
“There is a scenario you should be aware of. It doesn’t have universal support at the agency but it’s gaining ground.”
“Go on Koon,” said Cotton.
“Many of us think that what’s going on is a version of the Saudistan postulate. This contingency is currently in place as a Saudi response in the event that Iran acquires nuclear weapons.
Saudi Arabia. It’s commonly accepted that this is the most likely country to go nuclear if Iran does. To quote the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations report of 2008 on the implications of a nuclear Iran.” She read from a document on the table.
“However, high level U.S. diplomats in Riyadh with excellent access to Saudi decision-
makers expressed little doubt about the Saudi response.
These diplomats repeatedly emphasized that an Iranian nuclear weapon
frightens the Saudis ‘‘to their core.’’ and would compel the Saudis to seek nuclear weapons.”
“Gentlemen, there is some doubt about the Saudi industrial capability to develop nuclear weapons but it’s not relevant. In the eighties the country purchased between 36 and 50 CSS-2 medium range ballistic missiles from China with a range of some 2,600 miles; that’s far enough to reach Germany. These missiles were designed to carry a 3.3 megaton nuclear warhead and have no military use with conventional warheads, they are far too inaccurate.
In the south of the country is a hardened storage site at Al-Suliyil, housing four to six concrete launch pads, it stores around sixty missiles.”
Koon held the room’s attention.
“Ironically the country with the weakest technical infrastructure could acquire nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them before any other.
The Saudis have a close relationship with Pakistan and are near certain to have funded the Pakistani nuclear program.
It’s possible that there are a few dozen nuclear warheads stored in Pakistan now with Saudi Arabia’s name on them. If Iran does go nuclear the Saudis could join them within weeks.
The Sunni Saudis would see the Iranian bomb as a Shia bomb and therefore must be matched. A Saudi bomb could tip Egypt’s hand as the Egyptians see themselves as leaders of the Arab world and this leadership would be threatened by Saudi power.
How all this might be seen in Israel is not hard to imagine. A nuclear armed Egypt and Saudi would be regarded almost as bad as a nuclear Iran and constitute a clear existential threat.”
“And this view is held by sections of the agency?” asked General Cotton.
“Sir, it’s held by the vast majority. It’s as near fact as it comes. That’s the Saudistan postulate.”
Koon paused.
“So, here we are with the Antarctic nuclear situation.
Some are calling what might be going on here, the North KorIran postulate.
Iran wants nuclear weapons; North Korea wants better nuclear weapons and an enhanced means of delivering them.” Koon smiled.
“Better rockets. North Korea needs cash to improve its program. Iran has the cash from oil. Put the two together and you have the North KorIran postulate. Put simply, Iran provides the cash and some expertise. North Korea the expertise. Build the weapons in a remote place, then store them in North Korea. Iran has no weapons or weapons program if it’s inspected under the JCPA deal.
If needs be, transport the nukes already painted up with the green, white and red tricolour of Iran from North Korea to Iran. Mate them up with the ballistic missiles they already possess. That’s it. There you have it, nukes in a box. They paid for em, they got em.”
Chapter 5
“WELCOME ABOARD USS Stonewall Jackson….” He held out a palm to her.
“Anupa Silva,” she shook his hand. “I’m with MI6.”
“It was a dramatic entrance. You guys do that sort of thing? Oh, of course. Silly me, James Bond’s MI6. Do you know him?” Nathan grinned. She smirked at him.
“Captain, I…”
“Call me Nathan please.”
“Nathan. I was just passing by and thought I’d drop in for a brew.” He smiled and waited.
“Actually, you come highly recommended. The Chief of Naval Operations and I would like to ask a favour.”
“Anupa, the CNO doesn’t ask, he tells. What am I to do?”
SHE STUDIED HER PAPER cup.
“Where to begin?” she smirked, her eyes dark and playful.
“It all started quite innocently with oil. Rather a lot of it. The world’s supply to be exact.”
He listened, then looked to the galley. “I’ll have a coffee.” Nathan sat.
She glimpsed at him and returned to her story. “Yes, as I was saying. A lot of oil, and then there were the nuclear weapons. So, it started with oil and nukes, but then it got really interesting.” She took a sip and paused.
“Nathan, the CNO and I would be dreadfully grateful if you’d let me borrow your ship.”
He stared at her and tried to keep his mouth shut.
“Anupa. First off, it’s a boat not a bloody ship,” he said in a mock British accent.
“So, you can just swim down here climb aboard through the lock and borrow her? Just like that?” She nodded.
“That’s what he told me.”
“And what are we to do for you? Where are we going?”
Anupa pursed her lips and looked down to the tabletop.
“That’s difficult. I’m not sure of your intelligence clearance level.” She looked at him, “sorry but I can’t say. The destination yes, the mission, no. I know it’s security bureaucracy, but I have to follow orders.”