'This is getting out of hand!'
'UFO's again! That's very hard to believe!'
Isaacs had a flash of memory of the AFTAC headquarters in Florida where he had first heard of the seismic signal. He couldn't believe what he was hearing. How could that simple little rattle in the earth be related to the insanity that was being expressed in this room! Then he thought of Zamyatin. Whatever was going on, he couldn't feature explaining black holes to the KGB chief, never amid trying to convince him they were being fired by nasty little green men from outer space. He shook his head and pinched his eyes with thumb and finger. This discussion just had no connection whatever with the real world of geopolitical confrontation with which he dealt every day.
Runyan cut in. 'I'm sure we agree that the whole situation is hard to believe!'
'The energy requirements to make such a thing must be gigantic,' said Leems. 'Surely the suggestion that it's artificial is absurd.'
'It would take a lot of energy,' Runyan agreed. 'Don't you think it's fair to conclude then,' Leems pressed, 'that such a thing would be exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, to create? I have a strong suspicion we're on the wrong track altogether despite your argument here.'
'I don't deny that point,' replied Runyan. 'It's very difficult to conceive how such a thing could be done.'
'Still,' argued Noldt, 'it's not that it's impossible, just that we can't see how it could be accomplished technologically. Isn't that correct?'
'I think that's correct,' said Runyan. 'We're talking about very large amounts of energy, but not an infinite amount. In principle, it could be done. After all, we're fairly comfortable with the notion of it happening spontaneously in an astronomical context. Also, the large energy you're thinking about is based on brute force compression. There may be more elegant means to the end.'
'Then,' said Noldt with a barely suppressed excitement, 'since we see no way to do it on earth, aren't we forced to consider the possibility that such a thing was made by extra-terrestrials and put in the earth for some purpose?'
'Before we invoke some malevolent intent, terrestrial or otherwise,' Leems said with scarcely veiled sarcasm, 'I must say I'm not satisfied that we really know enough to rule out a natural origin. Even if we accept that we're dealing with a black hole, and I'm as yet far from convinced of the necessity, how can we eliminate the possibility that this thing started out exceedingly small a long time ago? Maybe the earth even condensed around it, and it took all this time, five billion years, for it to grow to its present size.'
'I have two responses to that,' Runyan said. 'One is that the universe was already quite old when the earth was born. There were no special conditions at the time to create small black holes, and any born in the Big Bang should have long since evaporated.'
'Well then, figure out a way to prevent evaporation,'
Leems said harshly. 'That still seems more likely than insisting on some intelligent plot at work.'
'Maybe so, maybe so,' Runyan said slowly. 'The other thing that bothers me is that the growth time for this thing is relatively long. I find it peculiar that this phenomenon has only just been discovered, since the technology to detect it has been around for some time.'
'Are you saying that this dung has just been put here recently?' asked Noldt. He half-glanced over his shoulder as if expecting to catch a glimpse of an alien presence.
After a moment's hesitation, Runyan spoke again. 'I'm disturbed that we're skirting a bit close to the edge of reason here with too few facts to support us.' He cleared his throat, then continued. 'Perhaps we should set aside for a while the issue of how such a dung could come to be and try to consider some other factors. We should discuss what we can do to learn more about this object.'
'I've been thinking about that,' said Fletcher, 'as a remedy for incipient hysteria.'
Pat Danielson had been following the discussion intently. She had felt herself becoming more edgy as the tension in the room increased. She had read some popular accounts of astronomy and their discussions of black holes and thought she was beginning to make some sense from Runyan's remarks, but the idea that he would leap from the evidence she had compiled to this conclusion still left her stunned. And now talk of manufacturing such a dung. That just couldn't be. She joined the nervous laughter after Fletcher's remark and could sense the more relaxed mood that spread through the room.
Fletcher continued, 'There should be quite a bit one could do by adopting your hypothesis as a working assumption and constructing appropriate models. If we could predict the behaviour of a small black hole, or whatever, orbiting through the earth, we could compare such predictions with the seismic data and other observations and perhaps get a much better idea of just what we are dealing with. Ideally, we should be able to prove your hypothesis true — or false.'
'Ah, a voice of reason,' said Leems, in a more lively tone. 'I don't know much about seismic waves, but it still seems to me that they should be modelled as well, to see whether the data that have been reported can be accounted for as some natural seismic phenomenon. The data are admittedly quite bizarre, but surely our seismologist friends don't know everything about the workings of the inner earth. Maybe there are special fissures or lattice works that channel waves in this special way.
'I do concede, though, Alex,' Leems continued, 'that since you have let this particular genie of yours out of the bottle, it should be pursued.'
'That's right,' agreed Noldt, 'if we are, in fact, dealing with a black hole and it originated on the earth's surface, then, if I have the picture correctly, it should return roughly to its point of origin.'
'I wish you wouldn't assume it was made on the earth's surface,' interrupted Leems.
Noldt gave him a befuddled glance and continued, gesturing towards Isaacs and Danielson. 'We already have reasonably accurate predictive capabilities. We can predict when and where the thing is due to come up and, well, of course you don't just grab it, but surely we could learn more about it then.'
'In fact,' added Fletcher, 'shouldn't an orbit tell us just where the origin was with respect to the surface?' Leems frowned again, but did not say anything.
'Yes, exactly right,' said Runyan. 'If we compare the apogee, the point farthest from the centre of the earth, to the earth's topography, that should give us some pertinent information. We already have an interesting indication from the Dallas event so nicely predicted by Dr Danielson.' He nodded at Danielson and she smiled quickly in return. 'About forty seconds elapsed from the first episode in the bar to the destruction of the building across the alley. An object in free fall could not have risen and then fallen more than a few thousand feet. So apparently apogee is somewhat above sea level, but not far. The point at which the orbit peaks will occur deep under mountains of any height, the Rockies or the Himalayas. More precise information of this sort could be most useful.'
'If we can tell where this thing comes out of the earth, what sort of test can we run?' asked Noldt. 'You can't see such a thing can you?'
'No,' answered Runyan, 'it's about the size of an atomic nucleus. You surely couldn't see it directly. It's most distinctive characteristic, of course, would be its gravitational field. That should be quite appreciable. Gravimeters set up in the vicinity should be able to tell us precisely what the mass of the object is, whether or not it comes to or through the surface. A simple seismic wave will have no effect on the local strength of gravity. A massive, orbiting object, on the other hand, should give a definite signature.
'I propose that this be our first move, and that since Gantt is our resident seismologist, he's the man to mount such an expedition.' Runyan turned to Gantt. 'What do you say, Ellison? If Dr Danielson can predict where the event will approach the surface at a given time, won't you be able to measure or set stringent limits on the fluctuations of the gravitational field?'