'That's an excellent ideal' responded Gantt with enthusiasm. 'I'll start planning immediately.'
Runyan glanced at Leems and then inquired, 'What do you think of that, Harvey ?'
Leems clasped his fingers together and stared at them for a moment. 'The gravity seems to be an effective discriminant. By all means, let's put your idea to the test.'
Gantt raised a finger and inquired, 'How well can you predict the point of surfacing? Can Dr Danielson's estimates be improved?'
'I think there's much to be done with computer models,' responded Runyan. 'I sketched a crude hypothetical orbit on the board. There will be many perturbations to an idealized orbit, but to work those out in detail can be done with sufficient effort. In addition, there may be some effect from the sun and moon, and perhaps the larger planets. With the exception of the effect of the structure of the inner earth, which is not known precisely, computation of a detailed hypothetical orbit should be possible.'
'Who would do these orbit calculations?' inquired Noldt.
'The people with the expertise,' replied Runyan, 'are those who calculate satellite orbits. They've already developed techniques to handle inhomogeneities in the earth's gravitational field as well as perturbations of the sun, moon, and planets. The effect of irregularities in the interior of the earth have not, of course, been studied in that context. Incorporating the effects of structure on the orbit should be possible in some approximation, though. There will also be drag forces, since the orbiting object will be accreting and, if nothing else, losing energy into the seismic waves we are detecting.'
There was a pause as these various practical considerations were pondered.
'At the risk of leading us back to the brink of insanity,' began Fletcher after a moment, 'I think we should at least touch upon one more item. I know we would all rather go after experimental results than to speculate with insufficient data, but I think we are charged here with exploring all avenues, at least in a preliminary fashion.' He looked sharply at Runyan. 'What should be done if you're correct, Alex?'
This query plunged the room back into an uncomfortable silence. The relief that had come with the discussion of the dispassionate collection of data was replaced with general discomfort. No one was anxious to contemplate what could only be a dreadful prospect.
Leems spoke first. 'Surely it's premature, but, yes, let's play the game out.'
'Perhaps I should lead off,' Runyan spoke quietly.
'Though I confess I have nothing definite, and certainly nothing positive, to say on the subject.' He paused, collecting his thoughts, sensing again the yawning chasm.
'Black holes are notoriously one-way affairs. They get bigger. A black hole will eat and grow like a cancer in the bowels of the earth. Where it does orbit above the surface, it becomes accessible in a sense, but it's not clear that that does us much good. As Ted remarked earlier, you don't just load something the size of an atomic nucleus and the weight of a small mountain in the back of a truck and haul it off. We have two choices: destroy it, or remove it from the earth. The hell of it is, I don't see any way of doing either.'
After a moment's quiet, Fletcher spoke. 'There's a third choice, isn't there?' He looked around at his colleagues. 'Evacuate the earth.'
'Good lord!' ejaculated Leems. 'Let's not get morbid.' 'earl's not trying to be morbid,' said Noldt with some heat. 'We need to explore all the possibilities, and he's just being honest.'
Fletcher gave a quick nod of acknowledgement in Noldt's direction and then addressed himself to Runyan. 'If it is a hole, Alex, how fast is it growing?'
'That depends rather sensitively on how massive it is and the structure of the material it passes through,' Runyan remarked. 'The time to double in mass could be several thousand years.'
'As short as that!' exclaimed Noldt.
'I could easily be off by a factor of ten. It could be longer.' He looked Noldt in the eye. 'Or it could be shorter.' He glanced around at the group. 'This is a crucial point that earl has raised. Any estimate of the time scale will require a knowledge of the mass, which makes the effort to measure the mass even more important. In any case, if we are dealing with a black hole, it will only grow at an ever increasing rate. We'll never have any longer to figure out what to do about it than we have right now.'
'Do you have any idea how quickly it will become dangerous?' Fletcher wanted to know.
'Again, I can make some guesses as to what will happen,' replied Runyan, 'but I can't say just when without more information.
'If it is a black hole and we can't get rid of it, it will continue to consume the matter of the earth. We'll have to look at the details more closely. This will be part of the orbit calculations I just mentioned. It may, for instance, eat the liquid core faster than the solid mantle, although it's travelling faster in the core and that may mute the effect. In any case, it's riddling the mantle with small holes. Either consuming the core or weakening the mantle will induce earthquakes of increasing magnitude. The drag associated with its motion will eventually cause it to settle into the centre of the earth. Not only will it then be irrevocably out of reach, but the core will be rapidly consumed.
'As the molten core of the earth is consumed, the earth will shrink. That in turn will remove the pressure support that holds up the giant continental plates. They will begin to rapidly shift and collide, in turn giving rise to another source of destructive earthquakes. All of this seismic activity will cause severe volcanic activity and tidal waves. As the hole gets to be near the mass of the earth, the earth will begin to oscillate in orbit, as it revolves around a common centre of mass with the hole. This will drastically enhance the destruction.
'Finally, the hole will grow so large that it will rapidly ingest the last of the core and large chunks of mantle. The outcome will be a black hole with the mass of the present earth, but only the size of my thumb.' He made a fist with extended thumb for illustration. 'In the end there will be nothing but the moon orbiting a small black nothingness, maybe along with a ring of rocks that managed to avoid being pulled in.'
The group of people in the room sat silently, mesmerized by this gloomy prediction. Caught up in the story he was spinning, Runyan paused, but then proceeded on an afterthought.
'I'm sure it's of only academic interest, but one can carry the story to its end. This small black hole and its moon would continue to orbit the sun. After several billion years, the sun will swell to become a red giant and will engulf the hole. If the earth still existed at that point it would be vaporized in the fire. But if the black hole has done its work, the tables will be turned. The process will begin again but with the sun the victim. The hole will slowly spiral down through the matter of the sun. It will settle to the centre and consume the whole sun in the space of a few years. That black hole, now immensely massive but only a few miles across, and its remnant planets, if any, will then proceed through space until the end of time.'
Chapter 12
Konstantin Naboyev climbed into the helicopter with a feeling of grim pleasure. It was not much of a revolt, but it was his, and he was so bored he could eat the hinges off a hatch cover. He had to do something to scratch this itch; there was nothing else in sight, so this was it.
He went through the pre-flight check quickly and lifted off the helipad as the control started to give him permission. The voice squawked that he had not maintained procedures. Up yours, he thought to himself. What are you going to do, send me back to Afghanistan ?