The Krone Experiment

'I presume you'll apprise Mr McMasters of the present situation on your return to Washington.'

'That's correct.'

'But a formal report is also necessary?'

'Yes, the DDI requires a formal presentation prior to his report to the Director. The Director then prepares an agenda for the NSC. The Director often takes the DDI, and sometimes me, along to the NSC meetings to make detailed presentations if they seem necessary. In a case like the present one, I can envisage your delegate attending any or all of these discussions.'

'The real expertise to deal with this problem may not lie within Jason as it's presently constituted,' Phillips noted.

'In what sense?'

'If we are dealing with a black hole, we have no one who is professionally acquainted with the intricacies of the subject.'

'Not Runyan, then? I did want to ask about his qualifications. Minnesota doesn't really have the reputation of some of the universities represented here, does it?'

Phillips held up an admonishing hand. 'Be careful about the prestige game. Good people are where you find them. In any case, Alex was a colleague of Gantt's at Caltech. He likes the outdoors though, an avid cross-country skier, if I remember correctly. Also, I believe his wife has a nice position at Honeywell.'

'But he's not an expert on black holes?'

'No, Alex is broadly studied, but I'm sure he would be the first to point out that others have a greater depth of knowledge.'

'Yet you seem to put some store in his hypothesis?'

'Certainly. It's his broad background and cleverness at synthesizing which makes him such a valuable contributor to our group.'

'In any case,' continued Isaacs, 'if we must, as you say, turn to others for expertise, that can be arranged. With due regard to security, of course.'

Phillips nodded and took another sip from his glass. Isaacs put his glass down to take up another of the items on his personal agenda. He leaned towards Phillips. 'Let me ask you, in your own mind, how do you balance the immediacy of the problem against the lack of specific evidence?'

Phillips played his drink in a small circle, watching the fluid coat the sides of the glass. 'You're concerned about whether to recommend immediate presidential attention?'

'Yes.'

'Professor Runyan is more qualified than I to discuss the particular parameters of the problem. I deduce, however, that while we want to move with all dispatch, the magnitude of the problem will not be seriously increased by failure to take immediate action. We're not faced with a situation where we must invoke presidential authority to quickly resolve the situation. On the contrary, I fear no such quick resolution will be possible. I would sooner think that it's a question of marshalling resources over which the President has authority once we have some notion how to proceed.'

Phillips swivelled in his chair and looked distantly out the bay window.

'Our first priority is proof. We must be satisfied beyond any doubt in our own minds.' He was almost speaking to himself. 'But I can foresee that an immense effort may eventually be required that would be a severe tax on this nation's resources. How to proceed will be a decision which only the President can make. Our choices will be radical surgery or the slow death of the patient. Either way we would face a time of severe trial.'

Phillips turned back to confront Isaacs. 'If we are really in the dangerous situation Dr Runyan describes, it's not a concern only for our nation. The whole world is in peril. A multinational approach to the problem may not only be proper, but necessary. One must then consider the political situation. That's your province. Under what circumstances do you foresee taking this problem before a world forum?'

Isaacs considered for a moment. There was an important asymmetry in his relation with this sharp, inquisitive old gentleman. Isaacs's responsibility was to learn all that he could about the current situation from Phillips and his colleagues. But there were limits to which the converse was true. He thought about Korolev and his interview with Zamyatin, but decided that only some general reply was in order.

'You understand that this sort of decision is out of my hands: it would be decided by the NSC. I have the same reservations you do about prematurely bringing this problem to the attention of the NSC and the President. Those reservations apply doubly to communicating with our allies. We must be very sure of our situation before spreading any possible alarm. I think we must proceed very cautiously. If, as you say, there is little prospect of immediate resolution by quick action, then we can afford to go slowly and carefully.'

'I was thinking not only of our allies,' put in Phillips.

'From a scientific point of view, I have several colleagues in the Soviet Union who would make valuable consultants.'

Isaacs stared at Phillips a brief moment, eyebrows raised. He could foresee a situation developing in which a cooperative effort with the Soviets at some level would precede notification of formal allies. He saw no point in raising this possibility with Phillips at this early stage. 'I believe that's out of the question just now.' Phillips pressed the issue.

'It may not be our prerogative to bring this problem to the attention of others. Don't the Soviets have the same capability as we do to monitor seismic activity? Or perhaps even the People's Republic, where there is a long history of interest in earthquakes and related phenomena. You mentioned this Russian aircraft carrier. Should we not move as soon as is feasible to forestall the possibility of further misinterpretation?'

Damn this sly old dog, Isaacs said to himself. He was strongly tempted to tell Phillips the whole story of Korolev and the Novorossiisk, but he thought of the uneasy truce Drefke had forced between him and McMasters. He had no authority to disclose the details of these geopolitically charged events. The last dung he wanted to do was to open another procedural dispute with McMasters. He was sensitive to the hypocrisy, but felt compelled to head off this line of discussion.

'I've considered such questions. Professor Phillips,' Isaacs replied, forcing a trace of coolness into his voice. 'I don't believe we disagree in principle, but the issue of when communication of intelligence to other countries becomes feasible or desirable must be weighed most carefully. You surely appreciate that such decisions cannot be made in the context of one isolated set of events. All possible ramifications must be considered simultaneously. The ultimate decision is not within your province, nor even name. I can assure you that the points you raise will be given due consideration.'

'Please!' said Phillips raising a hand in protest. 'Don't think I'm trying to dictate your actions in an area outside my competence. It's just that I can foresee yet other situations developing which will prove difficult to contain. I'm sure you and your organization are most competent to take appropriate action.'

Both men lapsed into silence, consciously attempting to quell the mood of confrontation which had threatened to develop. They sipped their sherry quietly for a long moment, each pursuing private thoughts.

Phillips stirred and proffered the decanter once again. Isaacs smiled saying, 'Just a little,' and then flashed a halt sign as Phillips refilled his glass anyway. Isaacs followed the neck of the decanter encased by Phillips's deeply lined knuckles as it tilted up from his glass, crossed to the other and dipped to release more amber liquid. He spoke as Phillips carefully replaced the stopper in the decanter.

'There is one more point.'

'Please.'

'You mentioned the question of hostility a while ago, or lack thereof. There was some talk about the possible origin of a black hole this afternoon. Runyan seemed to feel such a thing must be artificially manufactured.'