Pat Danielson had been following the discussion intently. She had felt herself becoming more edgy as the tension in the room increased. She had read some popular accounts of astronomy and their discussions of black holes and thought she was beginning to make some sense from Runyan’s remarks, but the idea that he would leap from the evidence she had compiled to this conclusion still left her stunned. And now talk of manufacturing such a thing. That just couldn’t be. She joined the nervous laughter after Fletcher’s remark and could sense the more relaxed mood that spread through the room.
Fletcher continued, “There should be quite a bit one could do by adopting your hypothesis as a working assumption and constructing appropriate models. If we could predict the behavior of a small black hole, or whatever, orbiting through the Earth, we could compare such predictions with the seismic data and other observations and perhaps get a much better idea of just what we are dealing with. Ideally, we should be able to prove your hypothesis true—or false.”
“Ah, a voice of reason,” said Leems, in a more lively tone. “I don’t know much about seismic waves, but it still seems to me that they should be modeled as well, to see whether the data that have been reported can be accounted for as some natural seismic phenomenon. The data are admittedly quite bizarre, but surely our seismologist friends don’t know everything about the workings of the inner Earth. Maybe there are special fissures or lattice works that channel waves in this special way.
“I do concede, though, Alex,” Leems continued, “that since you have let this particular genie of yours out of the bottle, it should be pursued.”
“That’s right,” agreed Noldt, “if we are, in fact, dealing with a black hole and it originated on the Earth’s surface, then, if I have the picture correctly, it should return roughly to its point of origin.”
“I wish you wouldn’t assume it was made on the Earth’s surface,” interrupted Leems.
Noldt gave him a befuddled glance and continued, gesturing toward Isaacs and Danielson. “We already have reasonably accurate predictive capabilities. We can predict when and where the thing is due to come up and, well, of course you don’t just grab it, but surely we could learn more about it then.”
“In fact,” added Fletcher, “shouldn’t an orbit tell us just where the origin was with respect to the surface?”
Leems frowned again, but did not say anything.
“Yes, exactly right,” said Runyan. “If we compare the apogee, the point farthest from the center of the Earth, to the Earth’s topography, that should give us some pertinent information. We already have an interesting indication from the Dallas event so nicely predicted by Dr. Danielson.” He nodded at Danielson and she smiled quickly in return. “About forty seconds elapsed from the first episode in the bar to the destruction of the building across the alley. An object in free fall could not have risen and then fallen more than a few thousand feet. So apparently apogee is somewhat above sea level, but not far. The point at which the orbit peaks will occur deep under mountains of any height, the Rockies or the Himalayas. More precise information of this sort could be most useful.”
“If we can tell where this thing comes out of the Earth, what sort of tests can we run?” asked Noldt. “You can’t see such a thing can you?”
“No,” answered Runyan, “it’s about the size of an atomic nucleus. You surely couldn’t see it directly. It’s most distinctive characteristic, of course, would be its gravitational field. That should be quite appreciable. Gravimeters set up in the vicinity should be able to tell us precisely what the mass of the object is, whether or not it comes to or through the surface. A simple seismic wave will have no effect on the local strength of gravity. A massive, orbiting object, on the other hand, should give a definite signature.
“I propose that this be our first move, and that since Gantt is our resident seismologist, he’s the man to mount such an expedition.” Runyan turned to Gantt. “What do you say, Ellison? If Dr. Danielson can predict where the event will approach the surface at a given time, won’t you be able to measure or set stringent limits on the fluctuations of the gravitational field?”
“That’s an excellent idea!” responded Gantt with enthusiasm. “I’ll start planning immediately.”
Runyan glanced at Leems and then inquired, “What do you think of that, Harvey?”
Leems clasped his fingers together and stared at them for a moment. “The gravity seems to be an effective discriminant. By all means, let’s put your idea to the test.”
Gantt raised a finger and inquired, “How well can you predict the point of surfacing? Can Dr. Danielson’s estimates be improved?”
“I think there’s much to be done with computer models,” responded Runyan. “I sketched a crude hypothetical orbit on the board. There will be many perturbations to an idealized orbit, but to work those out in detail can be done with sufficient effort. In addition, there may be some effect from the Sun and Moon, and perhaps the larger planets. With the exception of the effect of the structure of the inner Earth, which is not known precisely, computation of a detailed hypothetical orbit should be possible.”
“Who would do these orbit calculations?” inquired Noldt.
“The people with the expertise,” replied Runyan, “are those who calculate satellite orbits. They’ve already developed techniques to handle inhomogeneities in the Earth’s gravitational field as well as perturbations of the Sun, Moon, and planets. The effect of irregularities in the interior of the Earth have not, of course, been studied in that context. Incorporating the effects of structure on the orbit should be possible in some approximation, though. There will also be drag forces, since the orbiting object will be accreting and, if nothing else, losing energy into the seismic waves we are detecting.”
There was a pause as these various practical considerations were pondered.
“At the risk of leading us back to the brink of insanity,” began Fletcher after a moment, “I think we should at least touch upon one more item. I know we would all rather go after experimental results than to speculate with insufficient data, but I think we are charged here with exploring all avenues, at least in a preliminary fashion.” He looked sharply at Runyan. “What should be done if you’re correct, Alex?”
This query plunged the room back into an uncomfortable silence. The relief that had come with the discussion of the dispassionate collection of data was replaced with general discomfort. No one was anxious to contemplate what could only be a dreadful prospect.
Leems spoke first. “Surely it’s premature, but, yes, let’s play the game out.”
“Perhaps I should lead off,” Runyan spoke quietly. “Though I confess I have nothing definite, and certainly nothing positive, to say on the subject.” He paused, collecting his thoughts, sensing again the yawning chasm.
“Black holes are notoriously one-way affairs. They get bigger. A black hole will eat and grow like a cancer in the bowels of the Earth. Where it does orbit above the surface, it becomes accessible in a sense, but it’s not clear that that does us much good. As Ted remarked earlier, you don’t just load something the size of an atomic nucleus and the weight of a small mountain in the back of a truck and haul it off. We have two choices: destroy it, or remove it from the Earth. The hell of it is, I don’t see any way of doing either.”
After a moment’s quiet, Fletcher spoke. “There’s a third choice, isn’t there?” He looked around at his colleagues. “Evacuate the Earth.”
“Good lord!” ejaculated Leems. “Let’s not get morbid.”
“Carl’s not trying to be morbid,” said Noldt with some heat. “We need to explore all the possibilities, and he’s just being honest.”