Jake Ziegler was about to get caught in a political cross fire. He began on safe, neutral ground, explaining that the stakes couldn't be higher. There was no question the region was a powder keg, and the fuse was already lit. They did need to be careful of how to proceed. But there was no clear right or wrong answer.
Iraq, of course, was in shambles, and Palestine was going up in flames. More than a million Iraqi Shi'ites were expected to take to the streets in the next few days in southern Iraqi cities such as Karbala and Al Kut. Iran was adding fuel to the fires. The latest satellite photos and reports from sources on the ground indicated Iranian Shi'ite intelligence agents and volunteer agitators were infiltrating southern Iraq. Using smuggling routes dating back for centuries, routes that ran through Baluchistan, Halabjah and the island of Abadan in the southwest corner of Iran, these provocateurs were stirring up the local populations against the United States and calling for an independent, pro-Iranian state. Sixty percent of Iraqis were Shi'ites, after all, and shared not just a religious affinity with Iran but a mutual hatred for Saddam's regime.
Tehran also seemed to be opening up lines of communications with Damascus, encouraging the Syrian regime to continue accepting senior Iraqi military officials and to resist any and all American pressure to the contrary. And Hezbollah did appear to be moving militia units and Kaytusha rocket forces from the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon, along the Syrian border, southward toward the border with Israel.
How would it all play out? Ziegler thought to himself. How was he supposed to answer that? He had no idea. He was a station chief, not a god. The director of Central Intelligence was asking him to predict the future. But the events of the past few hours had rattled him. How could he predict the future when he could barely understand the past? He and his team had missed all the signs of an assassination plot against the Secretary of State, Yasser Arafat, and Abu Mazen. What right did he have to speculate on what else might be coming? But the president was waiting for an answer, so he plunged in.
"What does all this mean here in the West Bank and Gaza? Well, sir, I think the best way to understand what's going on right now is to take a step back and think about The Godfather movies."
"The Godfather?'
"Remember in the first movie, when Marlon Brando — Vito Corleone— has a heart attack in the garden while playing with his little grandson?"
"Of course."
"Remember what his son Michael worries might happen?"
Ziegler let the question hang in the air for a moment, then answered it himself.
"Michael worries that now that his father is dead, someone close to him— perhaps one of his own bodyguards — will conspire against him, even while claiming to set up a meeting to talk about a peace deal. That's what the Godfather warned Michael about shortly before his death, right? 'The one that comes to you to set up a meeting, he's the rat, he's the Judas, he's the betrayer,' right?"
"Right."
"OK, and that's exactly what happens. The Corleone family is betrayed by one of their bodyguards."
Ziegler had the president's attention now. He had all their attention now.
"I'm with you," MacPherson said. "Continue."
"OK, next, Michael worries that the result of the betrayal will be that other crime families in New York will try to have him assassinated. Why? So they can take over the operation and consolidate their power base. And it's not an idle concern, is it? Again, that's exactly what happens. The Cor leones' enemies are, in fact, plotting to move into the power vacuum created by the death of the Godfather to seize control and wipe out Michael and his family. But that's not all. Third, Michael worries that one of his own broth ers — someone he loves, someone he thinks he can trust — will sell him out, maybe for money, maybe for power, maybe for a little respect from someone, somewhere. It's not really important why. It's not the motivation behind the betrayal that worries Michael so much as the act of conspiracy and betrayal itself. So remember what happens next?"
The president didn't. Neither did Bennett.
"Coolly, methodically, mercilessly, Michael sends his thugs to hunt down and kill his enemies, one by one," Ziegler continued. "He has competing crime bosses killed. He has his brother-in-law killed. He even has his own brother killed after that whole thing in Cuba. The point, sir, is that we're watching the same thing play out right in front of us. We're watching a series of mafia crime families battle for control. The big question isn't whether they're all going to fight to the death until someone gains total control. That's a given. The question is, which one of the Palestinian faction leaders is actually Michael Corleone? Who's the real heir to the throne? Who's thinking strategically? Who's thinking ahead? Who's playing speed chess, and which one of these guys can see five, ten, fifteen moves ahead? The war to succeed Arafat — the Godfather, the last Don of Gaza — is under way, Mr. President, and things are going to get far bloodier."
Ziegler took a drink of water, in part to catch his breath and think about what he needed to say next, and in part to let the grim truth of what he was saying sink in. A moment later, he cleared his throat and continued.
"In Gaza, troops controlled by Interior Minister Mohammed Dahian— basically the overall head of security for the Palestinian Authority — appear to be squaring off against Marwan Barghouti's Fatah Tanzim faction. Dah-lan's forces are also being activated in the West Bank. My team just intercepted a flurry of calls from Dahlan's headquarters to his commanders in Ramallah, Hebron, and Jericho, all on the West Bank. They're mobilizing every fighter they've got and vowing not to leave any enemy standing. Still, that said, for the moment, Dahlan's forces — strong as they are — will have to play catch-up on the West Bank."
"Why? Who's in control there right now?"
"On the West Bank, Colonel Jibril Rajoub's forces seem to have the upper hand. Now, technically — legally — Rajoub and his West Bank security forces are supposed to report to Dahian. But it's not playing out that way. Most of Rajoub's forces are loyal first and foremost to Rajoub himself. He's commanded them for years. And now comes the moment of truth. What's interesting is that the moment Arafat was assassinated Rajoub personally got on the phone and started mobilizing his troops. We picked up that call. They hit the streets immediately. They're seizing PA buildings. They're seizing radio stations and newspaper offices. They've begun moving into Hebron, where an intense gun battle is under way, one of the bloodiest anywhere in the territories. Marwan Barghouti's Tanzim forces are fighting back. But early indications look as though they're being overrun by Rajoub's guys."
The vice president cut into the conversation now.
"JZ, it's Bill Oaks."
"Yes, Mr. Vice President."
The two had known each other for several years, having met during a Senate Intelligence briefing on Capitol Hill sometime back.
"JZ, what's unclear to me is whether one of these factions set all this into motion. I mean, is it possible to tell who started all this? Did this al-Rashid character, Arafat's personal security chief, do all this on his own? That's hard to believe."
"The 'lone gunman theory' does seem suspect, I agree," Ziegler answered. "My initial sense is that al-Rashid was told to do this suicide bombing. I don't know by whom. Was it one of the faction leaders — one of the sons, as it were? Or was it by someone from the outside? I don't know. There were obviously others planted in nearby buildings, armed with AK-47s and RPGs, who were told to move in and attack our guys once the initial suicide bombing occurred. So who was controlling them? I'm afraid all we have right now are questions, not a whole lot of answers."