"How long?" asked Doron.
"Depends. It's really up to you two, whatever you negotiate. But I'd say anywhere from eighteen months to three years would be a reasonable time frame. The idea is to prevent people from flooding the markets with their stock instantly. Create some stability. Give people a chance to see the company growing, maturing. Give people a stake in its security, and the security of the region. And, quite frankly, give people the chance to see the value of their stock increase dramatically in a relatively short period of time. The longer people hold on to their stock, the more wealth they'll have, the more they'll see the value of this joint venture, and peace between these two peo-ples.
"OK," said Doron, "so, again, assuming for a moment that all these details — and all the political details — could be worked out. Licenses. Concessions or IPOs, or whatever. How much time would it take to get drilling platforms and pipes and refineries and all that in place?"
"Well, again, there's lots of variables. But I think it's fair to say — and Erin, please correct me if I'm wrong — that the first oil and gas could begin coming out of the ground within one year of the signing of a peace agreement."
McCoy nodded.
"That's about right," she said. "The drilling platforms will be the quickest items to get into place, and we can begin building pumping and storage facilities simultaneously. What you won't have at first is much refining capacity. There's some in Israel by private companies. The rest would have to be outsourced. And of course, you don't have a deep-water port in Gaza, so there'd be some challenges there, as well. But all of these are manageable."
"The key here is the dynamic that is set into motion," Bennett interjected. "Arab and Israeli gas and oil companies — as well as all of the majors — are going to see what's going on and want a piece of the action. They'll raise capital and start building whatever they need to get into the game. Assuming there's peace, investors will be throwing billions of dollars into the mix. And the more they put in, the faster everything gets done. Everything that's needed can be built within a few years."
And then, once he knew he had Doron's attention, Bennett sweetened the pot.
"The president has also authorized me to tell both of you that if both sides sign a fair and just agreement along the lines of what we'll be talking about over the next few days…"
He paused for effect. Both men were listening intently.
"… my government is prepared to underwrite the work and provide substantial loan guarantees to both sides."
" 'Substantial'?" asked Doron. "What does that mean exactly?"
"Well, that all depends on the two of you," said Bennett. "I'm not prepared to give you a precise answer right now. We want to see what kind of deal you two make together. But let me just say this: The president is ready to get behind this project in a big way. I think he's already shown the lengths to which he is willing to go to get this peace process on track, and we are ready to see it through to the end. We see its potential. Heck, we may be the only people who really see the full potential. Most Israelis and Palestinians have no idea how big this could be. And we believe that once all the proper equipment and facilities are built and in place and everything is running at full speed — several years to be sure, but far sooner than most people would think — the joint Israeli-Palestinian venture known as Medexco could rapidly become one of the largest petroleum companies in the world."
"Meaning what?" Doron pressed.
"We project it could eventually pump between five and six million barrels a day, grossing — conservatively — about fifty to sixty billion dollars a year, just from raw oil and gas sales alone, to say nothing of all the other refined products and retail sales they could produce down the road."
It was the first time Doron had heard the figures, and he was visibly taken aback.
"When one factors in all the other potential products and sources of revenue for which Medexco, GSX, and the Joshua Fund have outlined in their business plan — that's included in your briefing book — Medexco could before too long, I believe, do gross annual sales somewhere on the order of a hundred eighty billion dollars to two hundred twenty billion dollars a year."
Now Doron sat back in his chair and stared Bennett in the eye.
"Our entire GDP is only one hundred twenty billion a year."
"Indeed," said Bennett. "Almost overnight, Medexco would become one of the largest oil companies in the world, on the order of ExxonMobil, which typically rings up about a quarter of a trillion dollars a year in gross sales."
Bennett put up slides laying out the numbers vis-a-vis other major oil companies.
"Of course," he continued, "all of these figures were based on low-intensity violence in the region before the war with Iraq, and, of course, before the current military operations began in the West Bank and Gaza.
"Medexco's oil and gas drilling platforms and refinery facilities — if actually built — would be vulnerable to attack. But the Iraqi threat is now neutralized. And if some kind of real peace between the Israelis and Palestinians could actually be found — and particularly if together we can eliminate or severely minimize the threat of radical Islamic extremism in the Palestinian areas— then the calculations made by our team may be moot, or conservative at best. The real value of the company could be in the trillions of dollars, virtually overnight."
Bennett now upped the ante.
The presentation was almost over. But he had one more point to make, and it was central to his "oil-for-peace" concept.
"We'll talk about the details of our peace proposal tomorrow, but for now I want to talk about how to make the benefits of peace tangible for everyone. Recognizing there are a number of ways to go about it, nevertheless, we would recommend that your two governments leverage the Medexco proposal into an initial public offering, and that this IPO take place on the New York Stock Exchange to ensure the greatest access to international capital markets. We further recommend that every Israeli and Palestinian man and woman over the age of eighteen be given shares in the new company. In essence, we're recommending that you make everyone an owner of this new company, and thus give everyone a tangible, financial stake both in its success and in its safety."
Sa'id sat motionless, Bennett noticed. It was as though he was afraid of doing anything that might distract Doron, who was clearly intrigued with the concept.
"We believe the IPO would raise hundreds of billions of dollars," Bennett continued. "That would accomplish two objectives simultaneously. First, even low- and middle-income Israelis and Palestinians could become wealthy overnight. And second, Medexco could raise enough capital to complete all the necessary facilities as quickly as possible. While the president has no interest in micromanaging such an undertaking, as a former Wall Street CEO and chairman of the Joshua Fund and GSX, he understands the opportunities and nuances of this project, and he has some suggestions."
Doron nodded, as did Sa'id.
"In no particular order, the president would like to see a deep-water shipping port built in Gaza, capable of receiving supertankers and other oceangoing cargo ships. He'd like to see refineries built in the West Bank and southern Israel, and perhaps even in the Sinai Desert, if a deal could be made with the Egyptians, which I suspect it could."
"Under the right circumstances, I think we'd be open to such ideas," said Doron, cautiously optimistic at what he was hearing, but still waiting for the political cards to be played a few days hence.
"Excellent," said Bennett. "And is it fair to say the PLC would look favorably upon such options as well, once they were fully briefed on the president's proposals?"
"I think that's a fair assumption," Sa'id concurred, adding cryptically, "given the right circumstances."