Maddy gave a little grimace and clicked off the TV when her personal assistant entered the room. “Madam President,” Nancy said, “the ExCom is waiting in the Situation Room. Secretary Serick is with them.”
The president read Butler’s threat estimate in less than thirty seconds and looked around the table. “How serious is this?”
“Given the recent news from Kuala Lumpur,” Serick said, taking the lead, “I don’t think we can ignore it.”
Turner came to her feet and paced the length of the room. “Why is it that we live in a world where we have to use force to make people live peacefully together?” There was no reasonable answer to her question, and she knew it.
“This is a local problem,” the DCI said. “What we’re seeing is a combination of economics and ethnic hatreds. Rather than addressing the basic economic problem, the government is making a scapegoat of the Chinese minority. The Chinese are fighting back. It’s a situation that we do not — I repeat, do not—have to address at this time.”
“Madam President,” Serick said, his voice calm and reasoned, “in conversations with a representative from the Singapore government, a Mr. Deng, I have learned that Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia are very concerned. In fact, they are forming a military alliance — Southeast Asia Command, SEAC — under the provisions of the Southeast Treaty Organization.”
“I thought SEATO was alive in name only,” she said.
“Indeed it was,” the secretary of state replied. “But this threat has breathed new life into it. Singapore is taking the lead.”
“Chinese fighting Chinese?” the DCI scoffed. “I find that hard to believe.”
“The Singaporeans know what’s at stake here,” Serick replied.
Vice President Kennett entered and sat down. Mazie handed him Butler’s threat estimate to read. “We don’t need this,” he said, thinking about his recent argument with Leland.
The DCI decided it was time to set it all in perspective and establish his authority. “Madam President, I have analysts spending twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, monitoring every area of the world. They are area specialists and intimately familiar with local conditions. Neither they, the NRO, the NSA, nor the State Department has turned up any evidence to even suggest that this is more than an indigenous group of angry farmers and dissatisfied ethnic groups.”
“Who have Scuds and nerve gas,” Butler said in a stage whisper.
The DCI ignored him. “We have more important things to consider and are wasting too much time on this.”
Mazie sensed it was the right moment to intervene. She glanced at Butler, and he gave a little nod. “Can SEATO handle this alone?”
“Absolutely,” the DCI said.
“They’re going to need help,” Butler said.
“After talking with Mr. Deng,” Serick said, “I agree.”
Wilding thought for a moment. “We have a Military Advisory and Assistance Group attached to the Singapore diplomatic mission. We can funnel aid to SEATO through it.”
Butler felt like cheering. But, true to his nature, he said nothing.
“Sam,” Mazie said, “what’s the political downside with Leland?”
The vice president considered it. “He’ll howl a bit. But we can handle him.”
Mazie turned to the secretary of state. “How do we signal to both sides that we’re serious?”
“It’s quite simple,” Serick answered. “We send a high-ranking and prominent officer to head the MAAG.”
“Who do you suggest?” Turner asked.
Mazie glanced at the president and took her cue. “Matt Pontowski.”
Butler gave a little cough, gaining their attention. “Matt’s not really an administrator. He’s more operationally oriented and at his best in command of a combat unit. I doubt if he’ll be interested in a MAAG.”
“So what do you suggest?” Mazie replied.
“Sweeten the offer. Say, reactivate the AVG?”
The DCI was shouting. “The American Volunteer Group? Not necessary!”
As one, six heads turned to the president. “I’ll ask him,” she said.
A uniformed Secret Service agent escorted Pontowski down the long corridor to the national security adviser’s office in the Old Executive Office Building. The number of guards was mute testimony to the increase in security. The agent held the door and stepped back, allowing Pontowski to enter. Butler was waiting inside. “I should have known,” Pontowski said.
“My apologies,” Butler said. “I handled it wrong. Mazie will fill you in.” He led the way into Mazie’s office. “I don’t believe you’ve met General Wilding,” Butler said, making the introductions. “And this is Colonel Prouder.” An Air Force colonel stood. “Colonel Prouder is from Checkmate.” Checkmate was a shadowy organization in the Pentagon that hovered in the background, always present when trouble reared its ugly head. Originally Checkmate was formed to integrate intelligence, threat assessments, targeting, and weapons capabilities into effective air campaigns. But in the international chaos following the demise of the Soviet Union, it had grown into much more.
“I didn’t know you were involved with Checkmate,” Pontowski said.
“Since its inception,” Butler replied.
“When you wake up in the morning,” Pontowski asked, “do you know who you work for?”
“He knows,” Mazie said. “Matt, the situation in Malaysia has the potential to escalate into a full-fledged civil war that could threaten the stability of the entire region. Fortunately, our allies in the region are aware of the danger and responding. SEATO has activated SEAC, South East Asia Command, and formed a unified command. But they need help.”
“So why am I here?” Pontowski muttered.
“We want you to head up the MAAG in Singapore,” Mazie explained.
Wilding handed Pontowski the folder he was carrying. “Here’s what we can offer SEAC.” He sat back and folded his hands, waiting for the inevitable reaction. It wasn’t long in coming.
Pontowski scanned the document and shook his head. “They can do better at a war-surplus store.”
“Between the war on terrorism and the Gulf,” Wilding explained, “we’re maxed out.”
“Obviously,” Pontowski shot back. “So where am I to get the means to make a difference?” There was no answer. “This,” Pontowski grumbled, “is turning into the proverbial goat rope. Get honest with me, folks. Earlier you tell me that the Chinese are lusting after Singapore and the Strait. Now you tell me that SEAC can handle it but they just need a little help, which we can’t really provide but are going to do anyway. So what’s it really going to take to do the job?”
Butler said, “That’s why Colonel Prouder is here.”
“We’ve run it through Checkmate’s computers,” Prouder began.
Pontowski interrupted him. “The dreaded threat-and-capability analysis?”
Butler heard the sarcasm in his voice. “It does work,” he said.
“Like in the Gulf?” Pontowski asked.
Prouder folded his hands and looked at General Wilding — an obvious challenge. Wilding did the mental equivalent of biting the bullet and said, “One of the Middle East threat scenarios Checkmate produced bordered on the prophetic.”
“Then why were we blindsided?” Pontowski demanded.
“Because Secretary of Defense Merritt,” Wilding said, “refused to forward it. It stayed in-house.”
Pontowski shook his head in disgust. “Politics.”
“You will notice,” Mazie said, “that Merritt is not here.”
“So what does your threat-and-capability analysis tell you about Malaysia?” Pontowski asked.