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A society of models

In this rapidly approaching future, you’re not going to be the only one with a “digital half” doing your bidding twenty-four hours a day. Everyone will have a detailed model of him- or herself, and these models will talk to each other all the time. If you’re looking for a job and company X is looking to hire, its model will interview your model. It will be a lot like a real, flesh-and-blood interview-your model will still be well advised to not volunteer negative information about you, and so on-but it will take only a fraction of a second. You’ll click on “Find Job” in your future LinkedIn account, and you’ll immediately interview for every job in the universe that remotely fits your parameters (profession, location, pay, etc.). LinkedIn will respond on the spot with a ranked list of the best prospects, and out of those, you’ll pick the first company that you want to have a chat with. Same with dating: your model will go on millions of dates so you don’t have to, and come Saturday, you’ll meet your top prospects at an OkCupid-organized party, knowing that you’re also one of their top prospects-and knowing, of course, that their other top prospects are also in the room. It’s sure to be an interesting night.

In the world of the Master Algorithm, “my people will call your people” becomes “my program will call your program.” Everyone has an entourage of bots, smoothing his or her way through the world. Deals get pitched, terms negotiated, arrangements made, all before you lift a finger. Today, drug companies target your doctor, because he decides what drugs to prescribe to you. Tomorrow, the purveyors of every product and service you use, or might use, will target your model, because your model will screen them for you. Their bots’ job is to get your bot to buy. Your bot’s job is to see through their claims, just as you see through TV commercials, but at a much finer level of detail, one that you’d never have the time or patience for. Before you buy a car, the digital you will go over every one of its specs, discuss them with the manufacturer, and study everything anyone in the world has said about that car and its alternatives. Your digital half will be like power steering for your life: it goes where you want to go but with less effort from you. This does not mean that you’ll end up in a “filter bubble,” seeing only what you reliably like, with no room for the unexpected; the digital you knows better than that. Part of its brief is to leave some things open to chance, to expose you to new experiences, and to look for serendipity.

Even more interesting, the process doesn’t end when you find a car, a house, a doctor, a date, or a job. Your digital half is continually learning from its experiences, just as you would. It figures out what works and doesn’t, whether it’s in job interviews, dating, or real-estate hunting. It learns about the people and organizations it interacts with on your behalf and then (even more important) from your real-world interactions with them. It predicted Alice would be a great date for you, but you had an awkward time, so it hypothesizes possible reasons, which it will test on your next round of dating. It shares its most important findings with you. (“You believe you like X, but in reality you tend to go for Y.”) Comparing your experiences of various hotels with their reviews on TripAdvisor, it figures out what the really telling tidbits are and looks for them in the future. It learns not just which online merchants are more trustworthy but how to decode what the less trustworthy ones say. Your digital half has a model of the world: not just of the world in general but of the world as it relates to you. At the same time, of course, everyone else also has a continually evolving model of his or her world. Every party to an interaction learns from it and applies what it’s learned to its next interactions. You have your model of every person and organization you interact with, and they each have their model of you. As the models improve, their interactions become more and more like the ones you would have in the real world-except millions of times faster and in silicon. Tomorrow’s cyberspace will be a vast parallel world that selects only the most promising things to try out in the real one. It will be like a new, global subconscious, the collective id of the human race.

To share or not to share, and how and where

Of course, learning about the world all by yourself is slow, even if your digital half does it orders of magnitude faster than the flesh-and-blood you. If others learn about you faster than you learn about them, you’re in trouble. The answer is to share: a million people learn about a company or product a lot faster than a single one does, provided they pool their experiences. But who should you share data with? That’s perhaps the most important question of the twenty-first century.

Today your data can be of four kinds: data you share with everyone, data you share with friends or coworkers, data you share with various companies (wittingly or not), and data you don’t share. The first type includes things like Yelp, Amazon, and TripAdvisor reviews, eBay feedback scores, LinkedIn résumés, blogs, tweets, and so on. This data is very valuable and is the least problematic of the four. You make it available to everyone because you want to, and everyone benefits. The only problem is that the companies hosting the data don’t necessarily allow it to be downloaded in bulk for building models. They should. Today you can go to TripAdvisor and see the reviews and star ratings of particular hotels you’re considering, but what about a model of what makes a hotel good or bad in general, which you could use to rate hotels that currently have few or no reliable reviews? TripAdvisor could learn it, but what about a model of what makes a hotel good or bad for you? This requires information about you that you may not want to share with TripAdvisor. What you’d like is a trusted party that combines the two types of data and gives you the results.

The second kind of data should also be unproblematic, but it isn’t because it overlaps with the third. You share updates and pictures with your friends on Facebook, and they with you. But everyone shares their updates and pictures with Facebook. Lucky Facebook: it has a billion friends. Day by day, it learns a lot more about the world than any one person does. It would learn even more if it had better algorithms, and they are getting better every day, courtesy of us data scientists. Facebook’s main use for all this knowledge is to target ads to you. In return, it provides the infrastructure for your sharing. That’s the bargain you make when you use Facebook. As its learning algorithms improve, it gets more and more value out of the data, and some of that value returns to you in the form of more relevant ads and better service. The only problem is that Facebook is also free to do things with the data and the models that are not in your interest, and you have no way to stop it.

This problem pops up across the board with data you share with companies, which these days includes pretty much everything you do online as well as a lot of what you do offline. In case you haven’t noticed, there’s a mad race to gather data about you. Everybody loves your data, and no wonder: it’s the gateway to your world, your money, your vote, even your heart. But everyone has only a sliver of it. Google sees your searches, Amazon your online purchases, AT &T your phone calls, Apple your music downloads, Safeway your groceries, Capital One your credit-card transactions. Companies like Acxiom collate and sell information about you, but if you inspect it (which in Acxiom’s case you can, at aboutthedata.com), it’s not much, and some of it is wrong. No one has anything even approaching a complete picture of you. That’s both good and bad. Good because if someone did, they’d have far too much power. Bad because as long as that’s the case there can be no 360-degree model of you. What you really want is a digital you that you’re the sole owner of and that others can access only on your terms.