Why is there a crisis in Ukraine? I was quite confident after the bipolar system went into oblivion and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, certain Western partners of ours, particularly the United States, were in a kind of euphoria, and instead of trying to create a new situation, good neighborly partner relations, they started to explore new free geopolitical spaces—well, free in their view. And that is why we are witnessing the expansion of NATO eastwards.9
Senator Lindsey Graham and John McCain were some of the loudest Republican voices opposed to Russia’s aggressive dominance of territories. All cooperation, military and civilian, under the NRC was suspended in April 2014 following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. NATO’s stance: “The Allies continue to call on Russia to reverse its recognition of the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.”10
In September 2014 at the Wales Summit in September 2014, NATO leaders condemned Russia’s aggression in the Ukraine, demanding that the nation comply with international law and end its illegal ‘annexation’ of Crimea. Russia effectively ignored President Barack Obama’s warnings, invaded Crimea, and annexed it within thirty days under armed occupation. Under Putin, Russia also backed separatist groups.-130 NATO was keeping a close eye on Russia’s increasing military activities along NATO’s borders, realizing that the new aggressive growls by the bear would threaten Euro-Atlantic security and stability.
Following Russia’s seizure of Crimea, President Obama announced economic sanctions on Russia and Crimea in March and December 2014. According to the BBC, the President said “The executive order is intended to provide clarity to US corporations doing business in the region and reaffirm that the United States will not accept Russia’s occupation and attempted annexation of Crimea.”11 The European Union soon followed suit.12 In response to the various sanctions Russia called the actions “meaningless, shameful, and disgusting.” Russia imposed its own sanctions by halting the export of agricultural products to North America, Norway, Australia, and the European Union. In July 2015 he extended the sanctions.
Trump was having none of it. As far as he was concerned, if the policy affected Russia, and was implemented by President Obama—or any President since 1947 for that matter—then he wanted to be rid of it. Trump gave the New York Times a wide-ranging interview in which he remarked that he saw a major change for the seventy-year old NATO alliance. He said that if Russia attacked any NATO nation, he would first consult and determine if they had “fulfilled their obligations to us” before coming to their aid.13 Trump set forth a policy of extortion never before heard or seen in American politics:
If we cannot be properly reimbursed for the tremendous cost of our military protecting other countries, and in many cases the countries I’m talking about are extremely rich. Then if we cannot make a deal, which I believe we will be able to, and which I would prefer being able to, but if we cannot make a deal, I would like you to say, I would prefer being able to, some people, the one thing they took out of your last story, you know, some people, the fools and the haters, they said, “Oh, Trump doesn’t want to protect you.” I would prefer that we be able to continue, but if we are not going to be reasonably reimbursed for the tremendous cost of protecting these massive nations with tremendous wealth…Then yes, I would be absolutely prepared to tell those countries, “Congratulations, you will be defending yourself.”14
The statements rang alarms all across Europe and instantly damaged credibility of the US nominee worldwide… except in Russia.
Objective: Advocate for and/or Repatriate Ethnic Russian Regions
Like Hitler, Putin uses a form of Post-Soviet appeal to a virulent Russian ethno-nationalism in former Soviet states. With his stoking of the nationalist fever he and his intelligence agencies fund and direct ethnic Russian populations to agitate to the point where Russian military forces can seize territory that was lost. To effect this, it is necessary for the SVR and GRU to covertly fund and mobilize popular political support in the affected areas and build a public outcry to “defend” ethnic Russian populations. It is particularly acute in nations that were former Soviet satellite states, but are now closely aligned with NATO.
Hitler carried out a similar strategy in 1938 when he exhorted Germans to validate his annexation of the Sudetenland, the ethnic German-speaking region of what was then Czechoslovakia. Hitler saw the immense power of rallying the German people to repatriate those he characterized as poor ethnic Germans to the greater Reich. Putin has adopted this strategy of ethnic “rescue” to justify political operations in Eastern Europe. Usually this was a slow process of creating Russian political parties, infusing them with cash and illicit weapons. Waiting for them to form a popular uprising with the help of the SVR and then diplomatically protesting greatly that ethnic Russians were in danger. Hillary Clinton noted this when she said Putin was a man “who believes his mission is to restore Russia’s greatness… When he looks at Ukraine, he sees a place that he believes is by its very nature part of Mother Russia.”15
Trump himself was aware of Putin’s designs, but unlike most Americans, he applauded. In his 2011 book Time to Get Tough he wrote, “Putin has big plans for Russia. He wants to edge out its neighbors so that Russia can dominate oil supplies to all of Europe,” Elaborating, Trump wrote “I respect Putin and Russians but cannot believe our leader (Obama) allows them to get away with so much… Hats off to the Russians.”16
Objective: Keep America Out of the Ukraine in Particular
To meet his goals for hegemony in the Ukraine and the Baltics, Putin would require a total realignment of the priorities of NATO. It would also be most favorable to Russia if the United States could be convinced that it was not in their interest to respond to Baltic States’ requests for article 5 of the NATO Charter. Article 5, which requires all member states to respond militarily if one nation is attacked, has only been invoked once, by the United States after the 9/11 attacks. How would the Americans ever abandon NATO? They created it. Only a President that shared the same viewpoint or who was in league with Putin’s desires would ever even consider such treachery. Certainly not a nominee from the conservative American Republican party led by Senator John McCain and Lindsey Graham; they were the war hawks.
It is widely believed that the issue of the Ukraine is a solid Red line for Moscow. This may explain why he and his surrogates made serious efforts to hire and put in place Americans who could advance their interests. Veteran journalist Marvin Kalb notes that the entirety of the national security elites in the West hold the view that to Putin, Eastern Europe is a Russian sphere of influence or “Russian backyard.”17 Anna Vassilieva, of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey told NBC News that “Ukraine is a big issue… a red line that Putin is not going to compromise.”18
Hillary Clinton’s own words must have struck fear into Putin’s heart because it encapsulates the Western school of thought on how to deal with him in the future:
I am in the category of people who wanted us to do more in response to the annexation of Crimea and the continuing destabilization of Ukraine… I do think we should do more to help Ukraine defend its borders. New equipment, new training for the Ukrainians. The United States plus NATO have been very reluctant to do that, and I understand it completely because it’s a very sticky, potentially dangerous, situation. But I think the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian civilians who’ve been fighting against the separatists have proven that they’re worthy of some greater support.19