“Then proceed as you think fit, Admiral. You always do, anyway…. Just let me know if I need to make a speech, will you? And perhaps Harcourt should make some kind of diplomatic overtures to the Chinese and the Iranians?”
“Two reasons not to, sir. One, it will alert the entire world to a crisis we may be able to strangle at birth. Two, they’ll just deny everything anyway, and probably be very amused at our concern. ’Specially if they’ve done it, which I already know they have.”
Arnold Morgan did not wait for a reply. He just turned on his heel and left, muttering to himself, “What a lightweight. What a goddamned lightweight. In five years he’s gone from being a damned good president to a self-serving wimp.”
By late afternoon every evening newspaper in the country was speculating about the possibility of a minefield in the Strait of Hormuz. The longtime threat of the Ayatollahs was uppermost in the mind of every defense correspondent in every corner of the media.
Television networks waited with scarcely contained excitement for the statement from the U.S. Navy. But when it came it was stark and noncommittal, precisely the way Arnold Morgan had instructed.
The CNO had declined a press conference and issued his written statement, deliberately late, at 21.30, through the main wire services, carefully avoiding anything that would suggest panic to either the Chinese or the Iranians.
It read: “The United States Navy has noted the three tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz during the last four days. In particular we noted that two of them burned, and one suffered an apparent explosion that released large quantities of oil into the sea. In addition, we noted that all three incidents occurred in a narrow seaway between the countries of Oman and Iran.
“We have been in contact with our major allies in the area and have agreed to support them in their efforts to ascertain the causes of these incidents, and to discover whether there might be a link between them.
“However, it is too early to arrive at any conclusions. We expect at least one of our aircraft carriers and her escorts to arrive on station in the strait in the next 24 hours. Another U.S. CVBG is currently steaming toward the strait from the Arabian Sea.
“In company with several other industrial nations, we are extremely concerned to ensure the continued free passage of the world’s fuel tankers through the strait both into, and out of, the Gulf of Iran.
“We have assured our allies of our continued assistance, should it become necessary to rectify any wrongdoing by any nation in these peaceful trading waters upon which so many countries depend.”
It was signed, “Admiral Alan Dixon, Chief of United States Naval Operations.”
It was good, but not good enough. Four East Coast tabloid dailies were already setting headlines like: MINEFIELD TERROR IN THE GULF…TANKERS BLOWN UP IN GULF MINEFIELD. IRAN’S MINES BLAST U.S. TANKERS.
All through the evening the television networks developed their stories, bringing in experts to discourse on the dangers in that part of the Middle East; recounting Iranian threats over the years; debating the possible involvement of China; discussing the consequences of an oil blockade.
By midnight, the President had called an emergency cabinet meeting in President Reagan’s old Situation Room in the West Wing. And there the major brains in the Administration attemped to walk the tightrope between being prepared militarily and creating mass panic at the gas pumps.
Arnold Morgan, whose voice would be heard the loudest, since he had been effectively on the case since Friday, was, uncharacteristically, urging caution. He wanted the CVBG in the strait to protect and assist the Indian Navy’s minesweepers. However, he saw no real advantage in making overt threats to either the Iranian or Chinese navies, save to make them absolutely aware that if any of their warships attempted to interfere, they would be sunk forthwith by U.S. Naval firepower.
As far as the National Security Adviser was concerned, the U.S. Navy had the matter well in hand. And with the strait now well and truly off-limits to all world shipping, there seemed little point in looking for trouble until the Indians’ Pondicherrys had begun work clearing the mines. In order to clear a three-mile-wide safe passage on the Omani side, Admiral Morgan estimated they might have to sweep 40 of them, which might take several days beginning Tuesday night (local time).
Minesweeping was a thoroughly dangerous business, and it had to be conducted and executed with extreme care. The President wanted to know how it was done, and Arnold Morgan suggested that Admiral Dixon enlighten everyone.
“Sir,” said the CNO, “when you locate the mine, it’s going to be ten or twelve feet below the surface, attached by its cable to a mooring on the floor of the ocean. Basically it’s buoyant, and it’s trying to float up to the surface, but is held down by its own cable.
“Well, you sweep them by towing cutting cables from the minesweeper, pulled down to the right depth and out from the side by an otter board. When the sweeper’s cable snags a mine’s mooring line, it keeps moving until both cable and line are taut. Then the cutter severs the line, allowing the mine to float to the surface. There it can be detonated by small-arms fire from a safe distance. They’re easy when they’re on the surface, but of course impossible when you can’t see them. However many times you’ve done it, you’re always astounded by the size of the explosion.”
“Hey, that’s pretty neat,” said the President.
“And pretty time-consuming,” replied the Admiral.
“How many sweepers are the Indians bringing?”
“Six,” replied Admiral Morgan. “That’ll help speed things up.”
“Cost?” asked the Secretary of Defense, Bob MacPherson, predictably.
“I told the Indian Navy Chief that we would arrange for all affected nations to share the costs. Between us, the U.K., the Japanese, Germans, France and some of the Middle East exporters, it’ll come out as peanuts.”
“No problem,” said MacPherson.
“Look, Arnold,” said the President, using his adviser’s first name for the first time in months, “I know you want to play this down right now. But I’m not sure we shouldn’t go straight into Beijing and demand to know if they have played any part in this whatsoever.”
“Sir, they will simply deny any knowledge, whatever we say…and that brings me to a very serious point.”
“It does?”
“Yessir. From our observations it looks very much as if the mines were transported to Iran in Chinese warships. And now we have a situation where, for the next couple of weeks, the Iranians are going to get pretty rich. And to an extent so are the Chinese. They seem to have a way through the minefield, in Iranian national waters, and the price of oil futures is probably going to forty dollars a barrel for West Texas Intermediate on NYMEX and the same for Brent Crude on the London market.
“However, I completely fail to see what the Chinese are doing. How could it possibly be worth it?”
“Maybe they just want to show us they can be real world players in the oil game with their new Kazakhstan pipeline,” offered Harcourt Travis.
“Maybe,” replied Arnold Morgan. “But that’s a hell of a dangerous card to play for such a slim moral victory. Christ, for all they know, we might get seriously pissed off with ’em. It just doesn’t make any sense to me.”
“Well, Admiral, perhaps the political minds at the table can offer something that may have escaped you?”
“Beats me, sir,” said Harcourt.
“All I know is this,” said the National Security Adviser. “The Chinese are very devious, very patient and utterly insincere when it suits them. What they are not is very stupid. And, so far, everything in the Strait of Hormuz is plain stupid. What the hell are they doing getting mixed up in something like this?”