Van Damm grunted and went on. “Next hot spot?”
“The nationalities question is the big killer,” Jack said. “You don't need me to tell you that. How will the Soviet Union break up — what republics will leave — when and how, peacefully or violently? Narmonov is dealing with that on a daily basis. That problem is here to stay.”
“That's what I've been saying for about a year. How long to let things shake out?” Alden wanted to know.
“Hey, I'm the guy who said East Germany would take at least a year to change over— I was the most optimistic guy in town at the time, and I was wrong by eleven months. Anything I or anyone else tells you is a wild-ass guess.”
“Other trouble spots?” van Damm asked next.
“There's always the Middle East —” Ryan saw the man's eyes light up.
“We want to move on that soon.”
“Then I wish you luck. We've been working on that since Nixon and Kissinger back during the '73 semifinals. It's chilled out quite a bit, but the fundamental problems are still there, and sooner or later it's going to be thawed. I suppose the good news is that Narmonov doesn't want any part of it. He may have to support his old friends, and selling them weapons is a big money-maker for him, but if things blow up, he won't push like they did in the old days. We learned that with Iraq. He might continue to pump weapons in — I think he won't, but it's a close call — but he will do nothing more than that to support an Arab attack on Israel. He won't move his ships, and he won't alert troops. I doubt he's willing even to back them if they rattle their sabers a little. Andrey Il'ych says those weapons are for defense, and I think he means it, despite the word we're getting from the Israelis.”
“That's solid?” Alden asked. “State says different.”
“State's wrong,” Ryan replied flatly.
“So does your boss,” van Damm pointed out.
“In that case, sir, I must respectfully disagree with the DCI's assessment.”
Alden nodded. “Now I know why Trent likes you. You don't talk like a bureaucrat. How have you lasted so long, saying what you really think?”
“Maybe I'm the token.” Ryan laughed, then turned serious. “Think about it. With all the ethnic crap he's dealing with, taking an active role bears as many dangers as advantages. No, he sells weapons for hard currency and only when the coast is clear. That's business, and that's as far as it goes.”
“So, if we can find a way to settle things down…?” Alden mused.
“He might even help. At worst, he'll stand by the sidelines and bitch that he's not in the game. But tell me, how do you plan to settle things down?”
“Put a little pressure on Israel,” van Damm replied simply.
“That's dumb for two reasons. It's wrong to pressure Israel until their security concerns are alleviated, and their security concerns will not be alleviated until some of the fundamental issues are settled first.”
“Like…?”
“Like what is this conflict all about.” The one thing that everyone overlooks.
“It's religious, but the damned fools believe in the same things!” van Damm growled. “Hell, I read the Koran last month, and it's the same as what I learned in Sunday school.”
That's true,“ Ryan agreed, ”but so what? Catholics and Protestants both believe that Christ is the son of God, but that hasn't stopped Northern Ireland from blowing up. Safest place in the world to be Jewish. The friggin' Christians are so busy killing one another off that they don't have time to be anti-Semitic. Look, Arnie, however slight the religious differences in either place may appear to us, to them they appear big enough to kill over. That's as big as they need to be, pal."
“True, I guess,” the Chief of Staff agreed reluctantly. He thought for a moment. “ Jerusalem, you mean?”
“Bingo.” Ryan finished off his Coke and crushed the can before flipping it into van Damm's trash can for two. “The city is sacred to three religions — think of them as three tribes — but it physically belongs to only one of them. That one is at war with one of the others. The volatile nature of the region militates towards putting some armed troops in the place, but whose? Remember, some Islamic crazies shot up Mecca not that long ago. Now, if you put an Arab security force in Jerusalem, you create a security threat to Israel. If things stay as they are, with only an Israeli force, you offend the Arabs. Oh, and forget the UN. Israel won't like it because the Jews haven't made out all that well in the place. The Arabs won't like it because there's too many Christians. And we won't like it because the UN doesn't like us all that much. The only available international body is distrusted by everyone. Impasse.”
“The President really wants to move on this,” the Chief of Staff pointed out. We have to do something to make it look like we're DOING SOMETHING.
“Well, next time he sees the Pope, maybe he can ask for high-level intercession.” Jack's irreverent grin froze momentarily. Van Damm thought he was cautioning himself against speaking badly of the President, whom he disliked. But then Ryan's face went blank. Arnie didn't know Jack well enough to recognize the look. “Wait a minute…”
The Chief of Staff chuckled. It wouldn't hurt for the President to see the Pope. It always looked good with the voters, and after that the President would have a well-covered dinner with B'nai B'rith to show that he liked all religions. In fact, as van Damm knew, the President went to church only for show now that his children were grown. That was one amusing aspect of life. The Soviet Union was turning back to religion in its search for societal values, but the American political left had turned away long ago and had no inclination to turn back, lest it should find the same values that the Russians were searching for. Van Damm had started off as a left-wing believer, but twenty-five years of hands-on experience in government had cured him of that. Now he distrusted ideologues of both wings with equal fervor. He was the sort to look for solutions whose only attraction was that they might actually work. His reverie on politics took him away from the discussion of the moment.
“You thinking about something, Jack?” Alden asked.
“You know, we're all 'people of the book,' aren't we?” Ryan asked, seeing the outline of a new thought in the fog.
“So?”
“And the Vatican is a real country, with real diplomatic status, but no armed forces… they're Swiss… and Switzerland is neutral, not even a member of the UN. The Arabs do their banking and carousing there… gee, I wonder if he'd go for it…?” Ryan's face went blank again, and van Damm saw Jack's eye center as the light bulb flashed on. It was always exciting to watch an idea being born, but less so when you didn't know what it was.
“Go for what? Who go for what?” the Chief of Staff asked with some annoyance. Alden just waited.
Ryan told them.
“I mean, a large part of this whole mess is over the Holy Places, isn't it? I could talk to some of my people at Langley. We have a really good—”
Van Damm leaned back in his chair. “What sort of contacts do you have? You mean talking to the Nuncio?”
Ryan shook his head. “The Nuncio is a good old guy, Cardinal Giancatti, but he's just here for show. You've been here long enough to know that, Arnie. You want to talk to folks who know stuff, you go to Father Riley at Georgetown. He taught me when I got my doctorate at G-Town. We're pretty tight. He's got a pipeline into the General.”
“Who's that?”
“The Father General of the Society of Jesus. The head Jesuit, Spanish guy, his name is Francisco Alcalde. He and Father Tim taught together at St. Robert Bellarmine University in Rome. They're both historians, and Father Tim's his unofficial rep over here. You've never met Father Tim?”