“What about the economy, Eric?”
“A long tradition of prosperity. Thirty years of noteworthy growth and stability. But a surprising incidence of poverty nevertheless. Black poverty, of course. White poverty in many areas, but most especially in the depressed northwest.
“Within the past two years, the economy has found its way into a state of chaos. Riotous inflation. Increasing unemployment, particularly black unemployment. Shares dropping off badly on the principal exchanges. This is a highly industrialized country, as you’ve perhaps gathered.”
“Yes. It’s also a Chinese puzzle. I can’t think of what name to put to it.” He touched his chin, the side of his nose. “I scarcely | even read newspapers, you know. I’ve lost all touch with international politics.”
“Then let me tease you some more. Certain things have occurred which would even make the pages of whatever sort of newspaper you have in Willow Falls, South Carolina. Did you ever think you’d come to live in a town with such a name, by the way? Certain events, I say, which if they ring no bell — this is a presentation, Miles, rather than a guessing game, though I can appreciate your temptation to play — certain events that may point up the directions the country is taking, the directions it might be coerced to take in the future.
“Politically, the national establishment is essentially oligarchic. One of these ruling families — their orientation is left-centrist — has produced several charismatic political leaders, each of whom in a particular way managed to appeal to disparate portions of the local population. Two of them have been killed. Among the blacks, there have been considerably more liquidations, especially in the lower levels. But again there have been two very important murders recently, both of them removing dynamic and charismatic leaders who managed to mobilize their followers effectively without approaching the extreme positions of their rivals. You see the pattern, of course.”
“From your words, it’s unmistakable. These are the men who threaten the process of left-right polarization.”
“Exactly so. Is that all? No. One final bit of information. The country has a long heritage of imperialism. It has a few remaining colonies and attempts to maintain a hold over them. This is to prove ultimately impossible, but in the meanwhile the country further depletes itself economically warring against guerrillas far from home.”
“As the French did in Indo-China,” Dorn said. “And learned not to do in Algeria.”
“An excellent parallel. Now this military drain on national resources is universally deplored. The left opposes it as colonialist. The blacks oppose it for a variety of reasons. The right does and does not oppose it — they want it to end, they resent what it costs them, but their attitudes are largely formed in reaction to the attitudes of the left. Anything the left opposes they can scarcely help endorse. The military is like all armies everywhere, they would only give up this war if they could find a better one.
“Now. To come quickly to the point. I could give you more background but it would be purposeless. I want you first of all to put all guesses to the identity of the country from your mind.”
“That’s easily done. I’m at a standstill in that respect.”
“And, taking as accurate my description of the situation, tell me what you think could happen.”
Dorn got up, walked to the window. He looked down at traffic and tried to focus his mind on the country they had been discussing. He had some trouble doing this because he found it slightly less fascinating than the fact that Heidigger was giving him so much background information, was constructing such a theoretical case. He resisted the impulse to take this as ego food. Instead he was realistic enough to know that any employment of his services would be on a fairly low level. He was a tactician and not a strategist. He did not make policy. He was not to be consulted about policy. He was a common pirate, good with a cutlass, useful in tight places. But one did not ask him which ship to board. Why all of this theater? Heidigger was naturally theatrical but usually had a purpose for what he did. Where was the purpose hiding?
Reluctantly he turned from the window, dragging his mind back to the question. “All right,” he said. “The answer I can give, the only answer I can give, is implicit in the question. In your presentation. There are too many things left out. We have not discussed what the Russians will do, what the Americans will do, what the Chinese will do. We have not established in what sphere of influence the country lies. So I must rule out all these areas, and any relevant factor in these areas could completely determine where my answer should be. But that doesn’t matter because this is a game or a presentation or whatever you choose to call it.”
“You seem hostile.”
“A little. I feel like a child reciting poems for family friends.”
“I told you there was a method.”
“All right. A scenario, then. The left will increase its provocations. They will be credited with some terrorism. If they do not think to perform it themselves, some equivalent of the Reichstag will go up in flames, with equivalent results. The left will not be able to focus its power. Its support base is far too small, and it will continue to be deprived of effective leadership, presumably through a continuation of the present policy of murder. The left will shrink and fragment itself even as it grows more extreme and militant. Am I reciting competently?”
“Oh, yes. You read with expression and carry yourself well.”
“Thank you.” It was silly, but he felt his hostility ebbing. “An effective demagogue will surface on the right. He will be well-financed — he had better be damn well-financed — by the dissident eastern financial interests, the ones who I gather have money and power but have had neither long enough to feel comfortable j with them.” He stopped for breath, bored with this performance, weary of his role in it. “When he emerges, the rightist fringe will abandon their little groups and quietly merge under his standard. His program will be anti-black and anti-Red and anti-intellectual. He will talk a great deal about the nation’s destiny and rightful place in the world. He will blame the failure to liquidate the guerrillas on treason in high places. He will — the devil with him, I’m not going to write his fucking speeches, Eric.”
“Go on.”
“If it works, he will mobilize the lumpenproletariat — why does no other language have that word? It’s essential. He will draw his strength from this group. His secondary strength will come from that large portion of the populace that is basically apolitical in more normal times. They will see him as a respite from chaos. The southwestern oligarchy will oppose him ineffectively and timidly until they discover they can no longer afford to oppose him. The more hardheaded ones will be killed. The Jews, if they’ve learned anything, which is perhaps doubtful, will come here or go to Israel. Oh.”
“What?”
“Nothing.” He spread his hands. “Shall I go on? He will appeal to the military. They may comprise much of his initial support. The southwestern money interests will think they can control him, just as his original financial supporters will think. If he’s at all good, they will be wrong. He will repress the blacks, he will kill off the university radicals — I don’t have to go on with this. The obvious parallel is Germany. The Weimar Republic. I wasn’t around at the time, but what you’ve drawn is a word-picture of the Weimar Republic. If the man is Hitler, then he can be Hitler.”